India's power generation and transmission sectors 2.2 times by FY2030

India's power generation and transmission sectors are forecasted to grow substantially, hitting USD 280 billion by FY30. Annual power consumption is projected to rise over 7 per cent, demanding an increase in total power generation capacity from 442 GW in FY24 to 673 GW by FY30. Thermal and renewable energy capacities will play key roles.

NEW DELHI: India's power generation and transmission sectors are expected to witness significant growth in the coming years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. The report projects that the power generation and transmission sectors will grow 2.2 times to $280 billion between FY24 and FY30 compared to FY17-23.

Additionally, to sustain the economy's rapid growth, power consumption is expected to increase by more than 7 per cent annually. By FY30, India's total power generation capacity will need to rise from 442 GW in FY24 to 673 GW to prevent power shortages. Thermal power plants, currently operating at around 65-70 per cent plant load factor (PLF), will play a crucial role in meeting this demand.

The average annual PLF for thermal power plants is expected to exceed the peak levels observed in FY08 by FY28, with thermal utilisation rates already reaching 74 per cent in FY25 to date. However, the report also highlights that peak power deficits are becoming more frequent due to years of underinvestment in the sector. To avoid regular power shortages, the focus will be on accelerating capacity additions and increasing investment in power transmission and distribution (T&D) equipment.

Capacity additions are expected to increase significantly, particularly in thermal power, where the annual addition rate is set to rise from the current 2-5 GW to 17 GW. Renewable energy capacity will also grow rapidly, with the annual capacity addition expected to increase 3.5 times between FY24 and FY27 compared to FY10-20.

India has set a target to achieve 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030. The power transmission sector is also poised for significant growth, with the bid pipeline increasing seven-fold over the past three years, from less than Rs 150 billion in February 2021 to Rs 1 trillion in projects currently up for bidding. This rapid expansion will be driven by the government's focus on expanding renewable energy capacity and the growing needs for storage, green hydrogen, data centres, and electric vehicle infrastructure.

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