1 week Ago By BRENDEN MOORE [email protected]
SPRINGFIELD — It was hardly a surprise when the Associated Press declared Vice President Kamala Harris the winner of Illinois’ 19 Electoral College votes just 38 minutes after polls closed Tuesday evening. After all, the state has supported the Democratic presidential nominee in every election, and always by double-digit margins, since 1992. For Macon County Republican Party chair Bruce Pillsbury, who glanced at the statewide results flashing on the television screen early in the night at the party’s headquarters in Decatur before turning his focus to local races, things seemed headed where they usually do in the Midwest’s bluest state.
“They kept showing 60-40 Kamala to Trump,” Pillsbury said. “And I kind of thought that was probably ballpark for where it should be or would be with Chicago and St. Louis influence.
” But when Pillsbury woke up Wednesday morning, it was to an electoral picture that was much rosier — and redder — for his party in the Land of Lincoln. While nowhere close to winning the statewide vote in the presidential race, President-elect Donald Trump had cut his losing margin here in half compared to his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. With more than 95% of returns reported, Harris appeared to lead Trump in the state with 53.
6% of the vote to his 45%, a margin of about 8.6 percentage points and just over 450,000 raw votes, according to unofficial returns compiled by the Associated Press. Just four years ago, President Joe Biden defeated Trump in Illinois by about 17 percentage points and more than 1 million raw votes.
Though Harris’ lead is likely to grow once late-arriving vote-by-mail ballots are tallied, she is on pace for the worst performance of a Democratic presidential nominee in Illinois since 1988, when George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry the state.
And she may be the first Democrat in that time to win the state by less than 10 percentage points. The result reflected a stunning shift towards Trump, the twice-impeached former president who survived two assassination attempts and nearly three dozen felony convictions to return to power in a deeply divided nation. This red shift across the country was more pronounced in Illinois and other states where the 2024 presidential campaign was largely uncontested, such as New Jersey and New York.
In Illinois, which leading Democrats proudly dubbed “the rebar in the blue wall” just a few months ago, the results represent a glimmer of hope to a state Republican Party at its weakest point in a generation. “Eight percentage points in Illinois is doable,” Pillsbury said. “And especially looking at it for future elections, if you got that kind of turnout for the presidential candidate in Illinois, I think that speaks volumes right there.
” But at the same time, Illinois Democrats maintained their supermajorities in the state legislature and their 14-3 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation. And, as early as Wednesday, Gov. JB Pritzker was already discussing potential ways to protect the state — and its most vulnerable residents — from a president he called a threat to democracy.
"Chaos, retribution and disarray radiated from the White House the last time Donald Trump occupied it," Pritzker said. "Perhaps this time may be different, but if it isn't, Illinois will remain a place of stability and competent governance." A look at the results The red shift in Illinois was almost everywhere.
According to unofficial results, all but five of the state’s 102 counties gave Trump better margins compared with his 2020 performance. The second-largest shift in margin came from Cook County, where Trump posted a 11% improvement compared to 2020. The county, anchored by Chicago, is home to 40% of the state’s population and has long been the state’s Democratic juggernaut.
In the state’s largest city, Trump received 22% of the vote, an increase from 16% in 2020 and 12% in 2016. He performed best in the outlying wards, which are enclaves for white-ethnic first responders, city workers and tradespeople along with working class Latinos. In most of the suburban collar counties, which have helped carry Illinois Democrats to large statewide victories and pad their supermajorities in the state legislature over the past decade, the shift to Trump averaged around five percentage points.
Harris still carried DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake and Will counties while Trump won McHenry County. Democrats also continued to bleed support in sparsely populated rural areas and smaller communities downstate, continuing a longstanding realignment towards Republicans that Trump has exacerbated. In Macon County, Trump secured 59% to Harris’ 40% out of more than 44,000 ballots cast.
In Coles County, it was a 63% to 35% Trump victory out of more than 21,000 ballots cast. Shaw “Clearly, there was erosion for the Democrats in Illinois,” said John Shaw, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute of Politics at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, who said that it appeared as though Trump benefited from “a middle finger vote” from many across the state and country. “Trump has been very skilled at tapping into the anger and discontent and even fury of the American voter,” Shaw said.
“And they have not really required him to offer clear and coherent solutions. They have been seemingly comfortable with just voting for a candidate who's angry at the status quo, and they use him to reflect their anger and frustration.” National trends were reflected across Illinois as Trump, according to exit polls, improved his standing with his base of working class white voters and built up more support from young voters and Latinos, particularly men.
Illinois Republican Party chair Kathy Salvi said that Trump's message on bringing down costs and securing the border appealed to a broad swath of voters. She predicted that it could serve as a template for future GOP campaigns here. Salvi “Illinois made massive strides last night, reflecting the foundation we are building to bring in new voters and compete with the billionaire governor and his band of cronies in Springfield,” Salvi wrote in a statement the morning after Trump's victory.
“Time to get back on our horse and start working again — there's only 727 days until the 2026 midterms." It should be noted, however, that voter turnout was down compared with 2020. Trump, as of now, has about 50,000 less votes in Illinois than four years ago.
Harris is down more than 600,000 votes versus Biden. Still, it is a sign of life for a party that has been moribund in recent years. Illinois Republicans have not won a statewide election in 10 years.
They are in the superminority in the state legislature and hold just three of the state's 17 congressional seats. Many of these facts remained unchanged after Tuesday's election. Democrats, already protected by gerrymandered legislative and congressional maps, used their massive fundraising and organizing advantages to maintain their numbers in Springfield and Washington.
Nevertheless, Tuesday's result was the party's first real sign in a long time of moving the needle in what had been an increasingly blue-trending state. Redfield “I think there has to be some encouragement for the Republican Party in Illinois that they may not be as totally dead in the water as they have appeared to be,” said Kent Redfield, a retired professor of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield. “Perception is what's important.
And so there's enough positives out of this that you can go and sell that to people about why they should get engaged, why they should run, why they should give money to the Republican Party.” Despite a better overall topline showing for Republicans that was broadly spread across the state, there were some bright "blue" spots for Democrats in the results Tuesday. One of them was McLean County, where Harris secured 52% to Trump's 47%.
This was a 0.6% improvement for Democrats compared with 2020. While a small shift in absolute terms, it was relatively large in comparison to the overall shift rightward.
While unofficial results show that Donald Trump performed better in Illinois than in the 2020 and 2016 elections, Gov. JB Pritzker said the Democratic Party fared well throughout the state — including McLean County, where the county board flipped from red to blue. Cortesi Democrats also took the majority on the McLean County Board for the first time ever, a feat Pritzker acknowledged while putting a silver lining on the party's overall poor showing at a press conference in Chicago on Thursday.
McLean County Democratic Party Chair Patrick Cortesi credited a "very efficient" field program where Democratic campaigns from county board to Congress coordinated with one another, which allowed for more doors to be knocked and the entire ticket to reap the benefits. "Makes you now wonder what we could have done had we not been up against those headwinds," Cortesi said. "But that's what two years is for," referencing the next election cycle, which will feature races for countywide office.
Pritzker responds Pritzker, who was a key surrogate for Harris, acknowledged "the improvement that Donald Trump had across the country and in Illinois in terms of his margin." While recognizing that the former president won the election and will once again occupy the White House in January, Pritzker vowed to keep Illinoisans, particularly those from marginalized groups, "safe and protected" from a second Trump Administration. “To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans, I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior,” Pritzker said.
“You come for my people, you come through me.” The second-term Chicago Democrat told reporters that he met with his top staff and spoke with several Democratic governors across the country on Wednesday to compile "a list of things that we may need to address" ahead of Trump's return to power. He did not elaborate on what lawmakers may do, but noted that the state has already taken action to enshrine protections into law, including ensuring access to reproductive health and limiting state participation with federal immigration enforcement.
While state lawmakers come back to Springfield next week for their annual fall veto session, Pritzker said any action would like "be done in the new year." Shaw said that if past is prologue, "Illinois' going to face some challenges going forward" in its dealings with the federal government. Two days after voters decisively rejected their party's presidential nominee, Gov.
JB Pritzker and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton spoke to reporters about the results during a news conference at Illinois state government offices in Chicago.
"I mean, the federal government is not going to be an easy ally for the Pritzker Administration, and it's not 100% obvious what the strategy should be," Shaw said. "But I do think he's going to look carefully at what happens in California and see what practically can you do to 'Trump-proof' your state from an administration that is going to be almost certainly hostile." Another consequence of Harris' loss is the creation of a wide open race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2028.
Pritzker has raised his national profile significantly in recent years, was a finalist to be Harris' vice presidential pick earlier this year and is believed to harbor presidential ambitions of his own. Before that, Pritzker has another decision to make: whether to seek a third term as governor in 2026. He told reporters on Thursday that "I don’t have anything to announce today" on a reelection bid, though he added that he has "no plans for anything else," referring to a future presidential bid.
Shaw said that Pritzker could opt to take his lengthy record of Democratic policy achievements "to the bank" and avoid any political turbulence in Springfield by not seeking reelection. But Redfield said it would be easier for Pritzker to maintain his visibility and stature in the party as a sitting governor. "If he wants to be in the national picture, I think he'll run for reelection and try to have that base to work from," Redfield said.
"He can go and be someplace representing Illinois at the same time he's representing JB Pritzker, potential 2026 presidential candidate." Trump Pillsbury Contact Brenden Moore at brenden.moore@lee.
net . Follow him on Twitter: @brendenmoore13 Get Government & Politics updates in your inbox! Stay up-to-date on the latest in local and national government and political topics with our newsletter. State Government Reporter {{description}} Email notifications are only sent once a day, and only if there are new matching items.
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