I’m a polling expert – the Tories will lose millions of votes if they team up with Reform

In May last year, Nigel Farage declared that Reform UK was becoming “a brand new Conservative movement”. Soon after, his party won a record four million votes at the general election, resulting in five MPs, while the Conservatives were handed their worst-ever result at the ballot box.The Tories now have a new leader, Kemi Badenoch, but are still struggling to revive the party and see off the threat of Reform.

Both Reform and Farage are polling higher than the Tories and Badenoch.A number of commentators and Tory figures have suggested an alliance between Reform and the Tories could be the boost the Conservatives need. So do the Tories need to work with Nigel Farage? Farage-fan Julie Burchill, former Conservative chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and pollster Holly Day give their perspective.



Following the Conservatives‘ historic defeat at the last general election, the question of a deal with Reform UK – or even a merger – is a common talking point. It’s easy to see why.Reform was a significant factor in the scale of the Conservatives’ defeat in 2024, and Nigel Farage‘s decision for the Brexit Party to stand aside in Conservative seats in 2019 was a major contributing factor to the scale of Boris Johnson’s victory at that election.

But would a deal work again? Could a merger of some kind reshape British politics? A closer look at both the data – and the practicalities – raises serious doubts.if(window.adverts) { window.

adverts.addToArray({"pos": "inread-hb-ros-inews"}); }The practicalities are important. The political circumstances are different today than when a deal last “worked” in 2019.

Reform UK are surging in the polls and Farage personally polls stronger than Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.So, at a basic level it isn’t clear why Reform UK would stand aside for the Conservatives now, or what a proposed merger would look like. For example, who would lead it? Would the Conservative Party survive it in one piece? These are difficult questions to answer.

But even if we accept the premise of a deal or merger, the idea is fraught with problems.It’s underpinned by two assumptions. The first is that political party building is the same as a game of chess.

In this world, voters can be moved around the board in a careful and strategic way.if(window.adverts) { window.

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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l1"}); }But if we know one thing in public research, it’s that voters aren’t always rational, as political campaigners see it. Just “adding” parties, personalities or their policy platforms together doesn’t mean you combine their voters.

The second assumption underpins much of our political discourse – that Reform UK voters are simply disgruntled Conservatives, and that if the Conservatives mimic enough of the Reform UK agenda, they’ll come home.‘While he is clearly a unique brand in British politics, Farage is a divisive figure’I think that’s unlikely for a couple of reasons.Firstly, Conservative and Reform UK voters simply don’t like each other’s parties that much.

Ipsos UK’s March Pulse survey shows four in ten 2024 Conservative voters are unfavourable towards Reform UK. Similarly, four in ten 2024 Reform UK voters are unfavourable to the Conservative Party. Immediately that’s a big chunk of voters that may go elsewhere in any case of a merger or deal.

More broadly, a Conservative deal with Reform UK at best only addresses one half of their problem.Data from Ipsos’ post-election “How Britain voted” poll of more than 15,000 responses shows the Conservatives lost around one in four of their voters to the right, in Reform UK. But they also lost a similar proportion to their left, going to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

Many of their main parliamentary “losses” actually came as a consequence of the 12 per cent who directly switched to Labour.if(window.adverts) { window.

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adverts.addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l2"}); }Plenty of those Liberal Democrat, Green and Labour switchers, who have voted Conservative in the past, could be pushed further away from some kind of deal with Farage.While he is clearly a unique brand in British politics, Farage is a divisive figure.

He polarises opinion – he regularly has some of the highest favourability ratings among UK political figures, but he also often has the highest unfavourability ratings as well.Our recent research showed that the top concern voters would have if he were to become Prime Minister is him causing division in British society. That’s shortly followed by his close relationship with Donald Trump – who is deeply unpopular in the UK – and then the lack of quality personnel around him within Reform UK.

That’s a lot of baggage for the Conservatives to pick up, and even more reasons for former or wavering Conservative voters to never return.There is an upside here, but it’s mainly for Reform UK. They’re currently seen by public and their voters as a single issue party with a charismatic leader.

To break their current ceiling, they need to be seen as legitimate contenders for government. Some kind of merger with the Conservatives helps with that.But for the Conservatives, there’s a real risk that many of their voters decide Reform UK is beyond the pale for them and leave.

Certainly you could make a case that the Conservatives lose more votes than they would gain.For now, the idea of a deal or merger is publicly dismissed on both sides, but you can see how it could rear its head once more if a divided right looked likely to hand another term to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Those advocating for it will have to grapple with the significant practical challenge and an unpredictable electorate to succeed – with no guarantee that it will.

Holly Day is a research manager at IpsosPerspectivesRead nextsquareJulie BurchillThe Tories need Farage more than they want to admitJust readsquareHolly DayI’m a polling expert – the Tories will lose millions of votes if they team up with ReformRead nextsquareKwasi KwartengI know Nigel Farage – he’s no friend to the Tories.