'I was as shocked as anyone': pollster finds Harris lead in Iowa

STORY: :: An Iowa pollster is 'shocked' that Harris leads Trump in a new poll in the state:: November 3, 2024:: J Ann Selzer, Pollster"Well, this is the first time that we've had Kamala Harris in the lead. So that by itself was a shock. We pulled in September and she had closed the gap from our previous poll when Joe Biden was on the ticket by 14 points. So Donald Trump had been leading by 18 points in June and then Trump leading by just four points in September. So this is really almost a linear continuation of that trend, which had Kamala Harris leapfrogging over Trump into the lead." "We see the same things happening here. With particular note to women who are voting for Harris in large numbers. And that's driven by a big gap with women age 65 and over. It's more than a 2 to 1 ratio, not even close among women, 65 and over.""I'm very conscious that something could happen later this afternoon, tonight, tomorrow that would change the shape of the election. We've seen it happen already. We've seen big things, seismic things happen to change the shape of the election."In an interview with Reuters on Sunday (November 3), the Register's pollster, J. Ann Selzer, said: "This is the first time that we've had Kamala Harris in the lead. So that by itself was a shock. We polled in September and she had closed the gap from our previous poll when Joe Biden was on the ticket by 14 points. So Donald Trump had been leading by 18 points in June and then Trump leading by just four points in September. So this is really almost a linear continuation of that trend, which had Kamala Harris leapfrogging over Trump into the lead."The poll of 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, has Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years. It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but it marked a turnaround from a September Iowa Poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead, the newspaper reported."The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris," the Register said.Trump won Iowa in his past two presidential campaigns by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.

STORY: :: An Iowa pollster is 'shocked' that Harris leads Trump in a new poll in the state :: November 3, 2024 :: J Ann Selzer, Pollster "Well, this is the first time that we've had Kamala Harris in the lead. So that by itself was a shock. We pulled in September and she had closed the gap from our previous poll when Joe Biden was on the ticket by 14 points.

So Donald Trump had been leading by 18 points in June and then Trump leading by just four points in September. So this is really almost a linear continuation of that trend, which had Kamala Harris leapfrogging over Trump into the lead." "We see the same things happening here.

With particular note to women who are voting for Harris in large numbers. And that's driven by a big gap with women age 65 and over. It's more than a 2 to 1 ratio, not even close among women, 65 and over.

" "I'm very conscious that something could happen later this afternoon, tonight, tomorrow that would change the shape of the election. We've seen it happen already. We've seen big things, seismic things happen to change the shape of the election.

" In an interview with Reuters on Sunday (November 3), the Register's pollster, J. Ann Selzer, said: "This is the first time that we've had Kamala Harris in the lead. So that by itself was a shock.

We polled in September and she had closed the gap from our previous poll when Joe Biden was on the ticket by 14 points. So Donald Trump had been leading by 18 points in June and then Trump leading by just four points in September. So this is really almost a linear continuation of that trend, which had Kamala Harris leapfrogging over Trump into the lead.

" The poll of 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, has Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years. It is within the 3.

4 percentage point margin of error, but it marked a turnaround from a September Iowa Poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead, the newspaper reported. "The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris," the Register said. Trump won Iowa in his past two presidential campaigns by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020.

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