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During the 2023-24 season, the Edmonton Oilers deployed four men who delivered over 0.80 points per game including even strength, power play and short-handed points. Among regular forwards, Connor McDavid (1.
74 points per game) finished second in the NHL and Leon Draisaitl (1.31) was seventh. The Oilers also enjoyed strong scoring from winger Zach Hyman (0.
96, No. 34) and centre/winger Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0.84, No.
65). Advertisement This season, McDavid is third (1.58), Draisaitl is fourth (1.
53) and the Oilers don’t have another impact offensive player inside the top 100. Hyman (0.68, No.
121) suffered through an early season slump and then missed a couple of games, but he’s coming on now. Nugent-Hopkins is at 0.54 (No.
179) and struggling year over year. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The template called for McDavid to centre Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman, with Draisaitl getting a supreme upgrade on both wings.
Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson were ticketed for the No. 2 line, but Draisaitl’s most common winger this year is Vasily Podkolzin . There should be six names firing on all cylinders, there are two, maybe three if Hyman’s hot streak qualifies him.
This team has an abundance of veteran skill wingers. How does one make sense of the Oilers wingers this season? Coaches fading veterans Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has faded Skinner this season. The veteran has six goals and 12 points in 35 games so far in 2024-25, most of those points coming from the depth lines.
GO DEEPER Why Jeff Skinner and the Oilers should stay the course and stick it out Knoblauch prefers Podkolzin on the line due to five-on-five outscoring results. Skinner and Draisaitl have been together for 62 minutes, and boast a 54 percent shot share and a 58 percent expected goal share. However, the duo has a 25 percent actual goal share, meaning the coach is using (in this case) raw results in a small sample (plus the eye test) to guide him.
They are scoring 0.97 goals per 60, a poor total but in an extremely small and unreliable sample. Podkolzin and Draisaitl have played 292 minutes together, with a 63 percent shot share, 61 percent goal share and a 62 percent expected goal share.
Podkolzin and Draisaitl score 2.88 goals per 60, and at this point, it’s a good bet Podkolzin will keep the job until the goal share regresses. Podkolzin is Skinner’s biggest problem, but not the only one.
Knoblauch’s attention to outscoring has players like Kasperi Kapanen joining the fun. Here are Draisaitl’s wingers (40-plus minutes) this season, with scoring results and goal share: All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick A reminder that 200 minutes is generally agreed to be the “line in the sand” to begin trusting these numbers. Podkolzin’s numbers are strong.
He’s scoring at a rate that rivals Hyman and Connor Brown , with only McDavid’s scoring with Draisaitl (4.05 points per 60 in 178 minutes, 73 percent goal share) well clear of Podkolzin. Advertisement Skinner (and Corey Perry ) are not forcing the issue when playing time with Draisaitl is given.
Knoblauch fading Skinner (he was a healthy scratch on Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks ) can be criticized fairly because there is so little actual sample driving the decision. The coach could be getting better results running Skinner with Draisaitl (or McDavid) but it’s not happening. On the other hand, Podkolzin is performing well and Edmonton is winning games.
It’s tough to reach outrage level over Skinner’s usage with the team getting good results. No one is talking about ..
. There has been plenty of chatter about the Draisaitl line, but very little about McDavid’s linemates. Knoblauch’s decision-making in the case of Nugent-Hopkins surrounds an established level of ability and two-way acumen.
There may be some erosion happening in real time, but the coach is counting on regression. Here’s the same look at McDavid’s linemates and their performances with the captain: All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick Hyman began the season getting chances and not cashing, but the last few games have him on fire and the season totals are regressing to expectations. Another 54-goal season is unlikely, but 30-plus is within reach despite the slow start.
Nugent-Hopkins is struggling alongside McDavid, with disappointing offensive output and a goal share that doesn’t tower over other options. Once again Skinner is in the ditch with goal share (minute sample size). Podkolzin rolls along like a steamroller with McDavid, too, and Kapanen is pushing for more playing time on a skill line.
Others in the mix The overriding issue with projecting middle-six and fourth-line wingers onto skill lines is the increase in playing time versus elites. That’s an issue for some players, but in the case of Podkolzin, there’s enough sample to make the call. All numbers versus elites at five-on-five, via Puck IQ Knoblauch currently has four forwards who are helping deliver great results versus elites at five-on-five.
Let’s be clear: McDavid and Draisaitl are pushing the river, and Hyman is getting great results in recent weeks. Podkolzin is a purely complementary player, and at points this season it was fair to argue he was running luck. That can happen in small samples, but the big winger has been on the ice for over 450 minutes now.
He owns a 58 percent goal share and a 61 percent expected goal share against all competition. Advertisement He’s bona fide, even against elites. The other side of the Knoblauch usage has us pondering Nugent-Hopkins’ role on the top line.
A 49 percent Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, similar to expected goals) isn’t worthy of a demotion to a lesser line, but it is a worry. Nugent-Hopkins had a 61 percent DFF percentage one year ago , playing a similar role. Nugent-Hopkins scoring at five-on-five is enough of a concern to contemplate replacing him.
Evander Kane is injured, and a long way based on reports from playing an NHL game. Matt Savoie is a gifted young player who should be able to play on a skill line soon. Is this too soon? Skinner is available, but Knoblauch moving him into a feature role after a healthy scratch seems unlikely.
Bottom line Making sense of the Oilers winger situation comes with some hard truths: • Knoblauch doesn’t trust Skinner any farther than he can throw him, and the Skinner numbers don’t allow supporters to make much noise. While it’s true that time with McDavid or Draisaitl (200 minutes or more) probably means more respectable totals, it’s unlikely to happen while the team is winning consistently. • Podkolzin might be shy as a scorer, but the overall goal share is net positive.
Whatever he’s doing, it’s working. We are now beyond the point in the season where it can be called a fluke. Whatever you might think about Knoblauch, his deployment of Podkolzin this year was an inspired bet at an important roster spot.
• Nugent-Hopkins is off the pace. He isn’t getting to as many pucks as in previous seasons. His offence fell last season (2023-24) and is falling again this year.
His time in a feature role will be in question next summer if he plays the rest of the season at current levels. The Oilers have stacks of skill wingers, but there’s room for two to step up from the current group. After McDavid-Hyman and Draisaitl-Podkolzin, someone needs to step up and help the cause.
Advertisement Nugent-Hopkins will get lots of run in his current role; Arvidsson hasn’t played enough versus elites (just 75 minutes) for the results to be trusted completely, but the early indicators (61 percent) are positive. The Oilers have many options and the coaching staff has over 40 games to find the optimal deployment. Between now and the playoffs the coaching staff may hit shuffle on the skill lines.
Too soon to call it a changing of the guard, but this has gone on long enough to be a concern. Podkolzin has been a godsend. Nugent-Hopkins’ sublime two-way game needs to return before the playoffs.
(Photo of Vasily Podkolzin: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images).
