2 weeks Ago By Firstpost
Donald Trump indeed is a unique phenomenon. He is the subject of domestic to international discourse and ‘what next’ inquisitiveness. Some worry about his unpredictability; others about his presumably boisterous announcements of annexing their territories.
And in the later category, Denmark for Greenland, Panama for its canal, and Canada for its very inclusion into the US of A. Tariffs are his favourite pastime, threatening nearly the whole world with varying degrees of coercion should they not fall in line. BRICS countries have been threatened with 100 per cent tariffs should they dare to even think of replacing the mighty US dollar without realising that it was the US policies of his predecessors and the West-led weaponisation of financial instruments that have led to incipient efforts to secure natural financial alternatives and mechanisms.
Will it have the desired impact over the next four years of his reign? Perhaps yes, but it still remains to be seen. A lot will depend on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, which will be decisive in the future trajectory of the global order, whether it will be bi-polar or multipolar. At the helm of the hyper, even if declining power, his words and actions do have a meaning and can have far-reaching impact not only on the Americans themselves but also on the so-called transitional global order, which will see increasing protectionism as the tool of interstate interaction.
He is indeed keen to keep his promise to stop the Russia-Ukraine war and has even stopped aid to Kiev to put pressure. But West Asia remains his favourite too. One could safely give him some credit for the ensuing ceasefire in Gaza, as he was firm in his resolve and gave definitive timelines and warnings to both sides.
Whether it was only an interim understanding before trigger-happy Bibi Netanyahu, invited to visit the White House soon, restarts his campaign to destroy Hamas and occupy Gaza and the West Bank—only time will tell. Meanwhile, the exchange of hostages and prisoners has gone on four times. As such, taking advantage of the Syrian situation, Bibi reclaimed the whole of the Golan Heights, which in any case was recognised by President Trump in his first Avatar along with Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
His new ambassadors to the UN (Stefanik) and Israel (Mike Huckabee) also endorse that Bibi should even occupy the West Bank, to which Israel has a ’biblical’ right, if he so thinks and wishes. But being dependent a great deal on US support and financial and military assistance, Netanyahu knows rather well that he cannot take Trump for granted. Some of his colleagues in the administration love the ‘real estate’ that Gaza is—let alone the potential of the Ben Gurion Canal.
It is absolutely clear that the security of Israel is the primary and foremost concern of every US administration, particularly President Trump. Hence, while he ended or suspended assistance across the world, pipelines were kept open for the Jewish state, let alone the additional provision of more weaponry. During his visit to Washington, DC, for which he embarked on Sunday, Bibi will not only get a pat from his great friend Trump but also expect even more assistance.
Meanwhile, Trump spoke to Egyptians and Jordanians to take the 1.9 million Gazans, as he was appalled by the destruction of Gaza without apportioning any credit to his friend for the same. In fact, this demand clearly fit rather well with Netanyahu’s stance from the very beginning, which was opposed by Egypt and Jordan, which have peace treaties with Israel, since the land belongs to Palestinians, and their eviction would have been a major setback for the cause of Palestine.
Trump’s proposal, though couched in humane considerations, appeared to defy logic and infuriated all the Arab countries, irrespective of the fact that both Jordan and Egypt depend significantly on US financial and budgetary support. Jordan already suffered from millions of Syrian, Palestinian, Iraqi, and Yemeni refugees. Given its socio-economic challenges, it can ill afford to concede, let alone the fury the regime will face from the over sixty per cent Jordanian-Palestinians citizens.
His Middle East envoy, Witkoff, will be visiting Gaza and may follow up with the Egyptians and Jordanians. It will be recalled that Trump 1.0 was particularly notable for his credible institutionalisation of the famous Abraham Accords.
His successor, Biden, tried to expand it by including Saudi Arabia—the biggest prize of all—which would have changed the West Asia landscape for good with clear fault and battle lines against the Shiite Iran and the sore of all eyes in the region. But the Israel-Hamas war and the Saudi-Iran rapprochement and modus vivendi between arch-religious and geostrategic rivals have changed the regional trajectory quite a bit. Saudi Arabia has become the major champion of the Palestinian cause and the implementation of the Two-State Solution.
It will be difficult for it to go back, as the carpet bombing of Gaza in the past 15 months has recharged the Arab street-opinion, and even the mightiest rulers will overlook that at their own peril, whatever the cost-benefit analysis. So, if Trump does succeed in getting Riyadh on board, the Palestinians might not be left out by default. Meanwhile, Trump could be pleased as the Saudis have announced an investment of $500 billion of petrodollars into the favourite projects of Trump.
They are, of course, under pressure to reduce the OPEC production cuts and oil prices, which could pressure the Russians to yield to Trump’s desire for an early conclusion of the European war. On his part, “Drill Baby Drill’ is bound to make the US a major competitor in the hydrocarbons market even at the expense of the Middle East producers. No wonder even the Chinese are open to buying his oil to offset the whopping trade deficit and provide some comfort to Trump, who, as such, appears to be looking for a deal with Beijing.
India may not be averse as well. Iran, especially after the decapitation of leadership and decimation of Hezbollah and Hamas and ouster of Assad, has some of its wings for regional influence and intervention clipped. Tehran has been bracing for the Trump presidency.
They are open to the idea of renegotiating the JCPOA nuclear deal dumped by Trump in the last term. This would provide them an opening for a reduction in sanctions. Trump is transactional, and if he thinks it will be useful for his prestige by at least an overtly non-nuclear Iran, he might consent to it.
Europeans are such on board as Tehran has been beseeching them to take the initiative. Trump might ask Tehran to tame the Houthis to even consider so that the Red Sea menace could be reduced. Of course, Tehran, despite its domestic troubles, is preparing for the worst at the same time as Trump has said in no uncertain terms that Iran can’t have nuclear weapons.
Likewise, although the US has been engaged with the new regime of acting president Ahmed al-Sharaa, Trump would want to withdraw their forces from Syria. Of course, some of his neo-cons may try to oppose, but this time around, Trump is unlikely to be derailed from his resolve given his disdain for the deep state. No doubt with the complexity of the region, Steven Wikoff and Marco Rubio’s hands will remain full since Trump would expect some far-reaching changes that won’t be easy to come by.
Since Trump prefers peace over war, the region may witness a calming down of the fault lines, but it’s too early to predict. The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.
They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views..
