2 weeks Ago By Kayla Lee
Honolulu residents can look forward to light showers and a bit of haze as the week rolls on, with the weather pattern shifting ever so slightly as we head into the weekend. According to the National Weather Service's Honolulu forecast, east to southeasterly winds are going to stay on the lighter side for the most part, with some potential changes brewing early next week. Showers are expected to come and go, focusing primarily on windward areas overnight and touching upon leeward and interior regions during the afternoon.
An upper-level low is seemingly on the approach, threatening to shake things up with a boost in southwesterly winds. Yet, forecasters are keeping their bets hedged, noting that "confidence remains low with regards to the strength and positioning at this time." Observations have flashed signs of shower activity sprouting up from the moisture plume extending perhaps from Lanai or Molokai toward Oahu this morning.
Haze is also to be expected through at least Friday night, influenced by volcanic thermal anomalies from Kilauea on the Big Island, as per NWS report. There’s a good mix of clouds and showers in the forecast for the afternoon, thanks in part to sea breezes kicking up. Despite an underlying move toward stability in weather patterns, there's a spanner in the works due to a disturbance that's set to cross the region's mainly zonal flow today.
This disruption could prompt a temporary uptick in showers, although the models seem to miss rainfall over land, banking more on offshore activity, primarily the windward side of the islands.Looking ahead, a light rain shadow effect is expected for islands tucked behind the Big Island, with a blend of land-sea breezes and trade winds influencing the remainder of the week. Residents can expect the sea breezes to generate cloud buildups and some light afternoon showers, with land breezes clearing the skies overnight.
Shower activity will likely be on the modest side since model guidance is leaning toward a building of upper-level ridging over the islands, which generally means more stable conditions. Moving into next week, however, forecasters are not completely sure what to expect. The GFS and ECMWF model guidance are in somewhat better agreement than before, but the details concerning a deep upper-level low developing northwest of the islands are still murky.
This low could significantly impact wind speeds and direction and may offer up additional moisture to the area from the southwest.Aviation-wise, expect mostly VFR conditions, with light to moderate southeasterly winds leading to land and sea breeze patterns. There are no AIRMETs in effect currently, which is good news for flyers.
For anyone taking to the seas, a nearly stationary boundary lingers over the northern offshore waters while a weak ridge of high pressure sits over Hawaii. This will translate to generally light easterlies, with slightly stronger winds around windward Maui County and Big Island waters. North and west-facing surf will see a decline, with some small north swells lined up for the weekend to provide a modest boost for surfers.
South-facing shores will maintain a low profile, with a long period south-southwest swell expected later in the week..
