Historian who predicted nearly every US election winner says Harris will win

The American University history professor Allan Lichtman has a track record that's hard to beat, having correctly predicted the results of all but one US presidential election since 1984. The historian's 2024 prediction is that the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will take the White House in November. Forget the polls, ditch the data and stop sending journalists to swing-state diners to interview undecided voters: historian Allan Lichtman already knows who is going to win the .

"Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announced to AFP. He was speaking at his home in the leafy Washington suburb of Bethesda shortly after unveiling his much-discussed, once-every-four-years prediction, based on what he calls the "13 keys" method. It can be easy to dismiss Lichtman's signature methodology as just another gimmick in the endless, drawn-out "horse race" style coverage of US -- where journalists, pollsters and pundits are constantly trying to see who is up and who is down.



But the American University history professor has answers for his critics -- and a track record that's hard to beat, having correctly called all but one election since 1984. Lichtman pays no attention to . More points to Trump, yes.

But after that the keys start breaking in rapid succession for Harris. Read also:.