2 weeks Ago
The Gold Research Center (GRC) expects gold prices to continue to rise this week, driven by three key supporting factors: the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, and persistent weakness in US economic indicators. The GRC Gold Survey indicates that domestic gold prices are projected to increase this week, contrary to the views of many gold experts who predict stability or a decrease. As reported by the Gold Traders Association last week, the domestic price of 96.
5% gold bars fluctuated between 42,750 and 44,000 baht per one-baht weight (15.1 grammes), closing at 43,700 baht on Friday, an increase of 1,150 baht over the previous week. Key factors to watch this week include the Middle East conflict.
The situation in Gaza may ease following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent visit, during which he urged Israel to avoid escalating tensions with Iran and to seek a ceasefire with Hamas and Hezbollah, especially as the US presidential elections approach. Moreover, the BoJ's monetary policy meeting this week is significant, with Kazuo Ueda, governor of the BoJ, indicating that the bank still has time to consider additional monetary policies while signalling no immediate interest rate hikes, despite the yen recently falling to its lowest level in nearly three months. Additionally, important US economic data will be released, including private employment figures from Automatic Data Processing, non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings for October 2024.
These figures will provide further insights into the US economic outlook. Local trader Hua Seng Heng noted that gold prices reached an all-time high last week due to strong buying interest stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East. On Saturday morning, Israel conducted missile strikes on Iran, although Iran later confirmed that its nuclear facility remained unharmed.
Meanwhile, Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) member states are working on a new payment system to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, also acquired 1.15 tonnes of gold over the past week.
Domestic gold bar prices are expected to continue rising, driven by global trends and the weakening of the baht, which is moving in line with regional currencies affected by the strong dollar. The research house suggests investors holding gold should consider maintaining their positions to maximise profits. As of the market opening on Monday, domestic gold prices remained stable, with gold ornaments priced at 44,100 baht per baht weight and gold bars priced at 43,700 baht per baht weight -- slightly lower than last week's all-time high of 44,000 baht.
At the same time, the baht was trading at around 33.81 baht per dollar. On the global front, the spot market gold price on Oct 28 stood at about US$2,732 per ounce, a decline from last week's peak of $2,749 per ounce.
Hua Seng Heng predicts that the global gold price will find support at $2,720 per ounce and face resistance at $2,758 per ounce this week. For domestic 96.5% gold bars, support is anticipated at 43,450 baht, with resistance at 43,900 baht.
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