2 weeks Ago By Jeffrey Schweers
TALLAHASSEE — Florida Democrats saw their hopes dashed Tuesday night when their Central Florida-centered efforts to break the GOP supermajority in the state House fell apart despite thousands of hours and millions of dollars spent trying to flip seats from red to blue. Not only that, they lost a seat they narrowly gained in a special election in January. The only targeted seat they won in 2024 was held by Rep.
Carolina Amesty, who faced felony charges as she sought reelection. In the end, the House maintained the status quo with 85 Republicans and 35 Democrats. Democrats also failed to gain any Senate seats, so the GOP retains a supermajority there, too, with 28 of the chamber’s 40 seats.
The seats Democrats hoped to win were mostly around Orlando and some of the bluer regions of the state. Republicans won them in 2022, but past presidential election results and current voter registration numbers suggested there were opportunities for Democrats to gain ground. .
They didn’t, nor did they win seats in South Florida held by vulnerable GOP lawmakers. “In the end, their theory didn’t pan out,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. “It wasn’t for a lack of effort.
” Daniel Smith, head of the political science department at the University of Florida, blamed an enthusiasm gap, noting far more GOP voters cast ballots and turned out at a higher rate. For example, 57% of registered Republicans voted in Orange County compared to 53% of registered Democrats. “There was a sizeable turnout gap going into Election Day, and it didn’t close on Election Day,” Smith said.
“There was a lack of enthusiasm for what Democrats are offering.” That appears to be the case across the nation, with voters sending former President Donald Trump back to the White House in a huge victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, who failed to post the kind of numbers that President Biden had in 2020 both nationally and in Florida. Florida Republicans, who already had 1 million more registered voters than Democrats, gave Trump a 13% margin of victory over Harris.
Nearly 11 million of the state’s 13.94 million registered voters, or more than 78%, cast ballots this election, with Republicans leading Democrats by more than 1.3 million — which means hundreds of thousands of registered Democrats stayed home.
Smith found turnout among Black and Hispanic Democrats in Central Florida to be depressed, similar to 2022. “It’s definitely the messaging and what Democrats are offering that doesn’t seem to offset what Republicans seem to be providing,” Smith said. Democrats challenged six state lawmakers in Central Florida, but GOP Reps.
Doug Bankson, Rachel Plakon, Susan Plasencia, David Smith and Paula Stark all were reelected. Democrat Leonard Spencer narrowly defeated Amesty, a Windermere-area Republican, by 1.68 percentage points to win the District 45 seat Amesty held since 2022.
She faces several felony forgery charges stemming from a document she signed for her family’s private college. “Democrats would have struck out if not for her legal and ethical issues,” Jewett said. “She did not get much support from her party and had negative name recognition and still lost by a slim margin.
” Some of the races were close. Plasencia beat Democrat newcomer Nate Douglas by less than a percentage point to hold onto District 37, which encompasses the University of Central Florida. Likewise, Smith narrowly defeated Sarah Henry in District 38 by less than a percentage point.
Stark beat Maria Revelle by 2 percentage points to hold onto District 47. But Plakon hung onto District 36 and Bankson kept District 39 by comfortable margins. Democrats invested over $200,000 into reelecting Tom Keen, who beat Republican Erika Booth in a special election in January.
He outspent Booth this time around, but she won the seat that takes in parts of east Orange County and east Osceola County 53% to 47%. Four of the districts lean Democratic by voter registration while the other three hold narrow Republican majorities. President Joe Biden won all seven districts in 2020.
The increase in Republican voters and enthusiasm for Trump extended his coattails down ballot to those state races, Jewett said. And Trump was popular with people who aren’t aligned with any party, he added. A red wave in 2022 helped the GOP win those Central Florida House seats and several South Florida House seats that had been held by Democrats, mostly due to a collapse of Democratic voter turnout, a surge in Republican voter registration numbers and record spending.
Those gains gave the GOP a supermajority and the power to control an agenda pushed largely by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. That allowed Republicans to waive rules governing lawmaking, shut down floor debates and push through conservative ballot initiatives and public records exemptions that require a two-thirds vote.
Regaining just five seats in 2024 would have given Democrats some more leverage in the legislative process, but votes did not go their way. “Democrats, they’re in a pretty sad state,” Jewett said. “There is not much lower they can drop.
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