5 days Ago By Nicholas McGee, A to Z Sports
Kyle Shanahan is undoubtedly one of the finest coaches, and finest offensive minds of his generation, a monumental asset to the San Francisco 49ers who has propelled them from irrelevance to perennial contender. But two major flaws have played a defining role in his career, his 49ers team's struggles to close out leads in the fourth quarter — an issue in huge playoff games that has bled into this year’s regular season — and his own conservative nature. The latter is a trait shared by several coaches on the 'Shanahan tree', especially Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay.
And it cost Shanahan and the 49ers dearly in Week 11 as they let another fourth-quarter lead slip in an upset loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers got the ball with a 17-13 lead with under four minutes remaining following a big fourth-down stop by their defense. San Francisco's offense got two first downs, one via penalty, but saw its drive to try to ice the game stall at the Seattle 42-yard line.
San Francisco elected to punt from plus territory on fourth and 6, giving the Seahawks the ball back with 2:38 left. It proved an extremely costly decision as Geno Smith led Seattle on a game-winning drive, capping it himself with a 13-yard touchdown run. Shanahan's call not to go for it in this situation may have been influenced by how much his offense had unexpectedly struggled against the Seattle defense, but it was also reflective of his ultra-conservative tendencies in such situations.
Per the Surrender Index, which quantitatively determines how 'cowardly' each punt in the NFL is, the 49ers' punt in that situation with the opportunity to essentially kill the game with a conversion ranked in the 92nd percentile of cowardly punts this season. SF decided to punt to SEA from the SEA 42 on 4th & 6 with 2:44 remaining in the 4th while winning 17 to 13. With a Surrender Index of 6.
69, this punt ranks at the 92nd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2024 season, and the 88th percentile of all punts since 1999. While the Seahawks did an excellent job of bottling up the 49ers' weapons outside of Jauan Jennings, it is bemusing Shanahan did not seem to give any thought to going for it on fourth down, particularly with his defense crucially down its closer in Nick Bosa. Between the excellent Jennings, Brock Purdy's legs and potential designed plays for Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, the 49ers had a host of potential means through which to pick up six yards.
With the punt only gaining them 22 yards of field position, the decision not to do so looks like an egregious misjudgement and stands as another indictment of Shanahan's lack of conviction in pressure spots. The 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot with nine penalties for 54 yards and also had a first-half interception that led to a Seahawks field goal. However, there is a strong case to be made that the biggest miscue for the 49ers was the head coach's lack of belief in himself and his offense to finish the job on fourth down.
This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission..
