2 weeks Ago
Piles of debris line the sidewalks of Punta Gorda's historic neighborhood damaged by Hurricane Helene, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Fla., as the area braces for possible storm surge from Hurricane Milton.
(AP Photo/Marta Lavandier) In a dramatic turn of events, Hurricane Milton rapidly escalated from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in just 12 hours, leaving climate scientists and meteorologists astonished. John Morales, an experienced meteorologist in South Florida, struggled to maintain composure while explaining how swiftly the storm intensified. The technical details behind this transformation—such as a 50-millibar drop in pressure—may not resonate with most people, but to professionals like Morales, it signalled an impending disaster.
With Florida still recovering from Hurricane Helene, Milton, a more compact and faster-spinning storm, poses an even greater threat. Hurricane Milton embodies the type of storm climate experts have long cautioned about. Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, remarked that while the storm's intensity is shocking, it is not unexpected.
The warmer climate has given rise to storms that, while still formidable in their own right, are now exacerbated by environmental changes. Milton’s development was driven by multiple factors that combined to create a catastrophic storm. Warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico provided substantial energy, transforming it into a powerful force.
High humidity levels also played a role, as warmer air holds more moisture, while the atmosphere’s instability helped the hurricane maintain its form. The lack of wind shear, due to La Niña conditions, allowed the storm to remain well-organised, further increasing its intensity. Another critical factor is that Milton's path through the western Gulf of Mexico, an area largely untouched by previous storms this season, allowed it to fuel itself on uncooled waters.
Unlike Hurricane Helene, which took time to consolidate, Milton has formed a compact and highly symmetrical core. Wind speeds have surged by 90 miles per hour in just one day, making it one of the fastest-intensifying storms on record. Recent years have seen an increase in storms that rapidly intensify, leaving limited time for residents to prepare.
Hurricanes Otis, Idalia, and Ian are recent examples of this phenomenon, and scientists like Kerry Emanuel have long predicted that hurricanes would intensify more quickly as the planet warms. Though there is ongoing debate about whether climate change will reduce the total number of storms, it is widely accepted that those that do form will likely be more severe. Research by Tom Knutson at NOAA suggests that the United States may see an increase in Category 4 and 5 storms in the coming decades.
Hurricane Milton, now downgraded to Category 4 but growing in size, may still regain its Category 5 status. Florida is preparing for the potential evacuation of over six million people as the storm approaches. The rising sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico—driven by climate change—mean that the storm surge will likely push farther inland than it would have in the past, and with more force.
The Tampa Bay area, for example, has seen sea levels rise by nearly five inches in the last 14 years, which will exacerbate the effects of flooding. In addition, the storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall to an already saturated Florida, increasing the risk of flooding. Rainfall, one of the better-understood consequences of climate change, is becoming more extreme with storms like Milton.
Preliminary research suggests that climate change has already contributed to higher rainfall totals during recent hurricanes, making such events more severe than they might have been under pre-industrial conditions. As scientists prepare to study the full impact of climate change on Hurricane Milton, the storm serves as a reminder of the increasingly intense weather patterns that the world must brace for in the future. While the scale of the devastation may shock us, it should not come as a surprise—we have long been warned that such storms were on their way.
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