Experts warn of energetic 2025 hurricane season with 17 named storms

HOUSTON — The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than average, with a higher chance of major hurricanes impacting the U.S. and Caribbean, according to a new forecast from Colorado State University.

The seasonal outlook , released Thursday, predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes — those ranked Category 3 or higher — during the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That’s well above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.



“We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” CSU researchers said in the extended forecast. The team cites warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a possible return to La Niña conditions as key factors fueling the forecast. Current La Niña conditions are likely to shift to a neutral phase in the coming months, but researchers say there’s still “considerable uncertainty” about how the climate pattern will develop by late summer and fall.

The unlikely scenario of an El Niño is why the forecast favors an above-average season. A neutral or La Niña pattern, combined with warm ocean waters, typically creates a favorable environment for hurricanes to form and strengthen. Higher risk for U.

S. and Caribbean landfalls The forecast also includes an above-average probability for major hurricanes to make landfall: 51% chance of at least one major hurricane hitting the continental U.S.

coastline (average is 43%). 26% chance for the U.S.

East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average is 21%). 33% chance for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas (average is 27%). 56% chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (average is 47%).

Researchers urge coastal residents to prepare, regardless of the seasonal forecast. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the report said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

” CSU’s team will release updated hurricane season forecasts later this year as weather patterns evolve..