1 week Ago By Aaron Spray
The last five years have been transformative and tumultuous for Mainland Chinese international flights . COVID-19, the rise of domestic Chinese tourism, the rise in Sino-Indian tensions, the rise in Great Power Competition with the US, and the closure of Russian air space to Western airlines amid the war in Ukraine have had a massive impact on Chinese flights. But how have China's flights to the major hubs of the Middle East fared over that time? Note that this article does not consider Turkey nor its major hub, Istanbul.
Five-year flight change between China and Middle East Overall data from Cirium , an aviation analytics company, shows that flights between Mainland China and the Middle East have more than recovered from pre-pandemic levels from 1,534 monthly flights to 1,696 monthly flights. This represents an increase of around 10.5%.
Meanwhile, the available seats from China have increased from 528,742 in October 2019 to 507,505 in October 2024. Airline flying China/Middle East: October 2019 October 2024 Sichuan Airlines (3U): 60 52 Air China (CA): 88 139 China Southern Airlines (CZ): 197 271 Emirates (EK): 316 308 Etihad Airways (EY): 167 85 Gulf Air (GF): 0 62 Hainan Airlines (HU): 64 44 Iraqi Airways (IA): 10 36 Kuwait Airways (KU): 0 26 EL AL Israel Airlines (LY): 18 0 China Eastern Airlines (MU): 117 80 Qatar Airways (QR): 277 277 Saudia (SV): 61 80 Mahan Airlines (W5): 124 80 Oman Air (WY): 35 0 Shenzhen Airlines (ZH): 0 4 Total: 1,534 1,696 The change in airlines operating between China and the Middle East is a mixed bag—notably, Etihad Airways flights have been in sharp decline, although its Emirates and Qatar Airways Middle Eastern rivals have remained steady. Chinese airlines are mixed, with some (like China Southern) increasing flights to the region, while others (like China Eastern Airlines ) have fewer flights to the Middle East.
Overall, it appears that the political issues plaguing international flights to and from China in other parts of the world are not affecting Middle Eastern routes in any great way. Canada's flights to China have fallen by 91% compared to 5 years ago, and it is unclear when they will ever recover to pre-pandemic levels. Five-year flight change between China and Qatar/UAE The Middle East is a major transit region connecting much of Asia and the Pacific with Europe and Africa.
However, it is also a destination in and of itself. Flights to countries like Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait are more likely to be end destinations than places like the UAE and Qatar (although some passengers' end destinations will be those countries). Zooming in on the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, a clearer picture of China's transit connections with Europe and Africa can be seen.
Airlines flying China/Qatar: November 2019 November 2024 Change China Southern Airlines (CZ): 0 60 +100% Xiamen Air (MF): 0 78 +100% Qatar Airways (QR): 266 266 0% Shenzhen Airlines (ZH): 0 24 +100% Total: 266 428 +61% In November 2019, no Chinese airlines flew to Qatar—now (November 2024) three are scheduled. Qatar Ariways is operating the same number (266) of flights to China. This is an overall increase of 61% in flights to the major Middle Eastern hub.
It also represents a corresponding 13.3% increase in seat availability. Airlines flying China/UAE: November 2019: November 2024: Change: Sichuan Airlines (3U): 44 52 +15% Air China (CA): 86 112 +30% China Southern Airlines (CZ): 180 154 -17% Emirates (EK): 300 296 -1.
4% Etihad Airways (EY): 146 60 -58% Hainan Airlines (HU): 0 26 100% China Eastern Airlines (MU): 112 122 +9% Total: 868 822 -5% Overall, the number of flights between China and the major hub of Qatar has increased from 266 to 428 (a substantial 61% increase). At the same time it has been mostly flat between China and the UAE (falling slightly from 868 to 822 - 5% decline). Etihad saw its flights plummet from 146 monthly flights to 60 but these were mostly made up for by increases in Chinese airlines to the UAE.
Despite being neighbors with almost three billion residents between them, India and China currently have no direct flight connections. The broader context China's flights to Western countries and India are either in rocky waters or dire straits. India (moving to severe China from its economy) has cut all flights between the countries.
While less dramatic than India, an emerging economic war with China coupled with the closure of Russian airspace to North American airlines and the rise of domestic Chinese tourism has seen China's flight connectivity to the US fall by 74% and 91% with Canada between October 2019 and October 2024. Change in international Chinese flights (Oct 2019/Oct 2024): India: -100% Canada: -91% USA: -74% Australia/NZ: -14% Europe (Inc. UK): -7% Middle East: +10.
5% The flights between Europe and China have been buffeted not so much by an economic war between the two but by the closure of Russian air space. This has led to a major fall in European airlines flying to China but a massive uptick in Chinese flights flying to Europe (resulting in an overall -7% decrease). Chinese flights to New Zealand and Australia have also fallen by 14% as fewer Chinese tourists travel abroad.
Notably, Qantas and Jetstar have completely pulled out of Mainland China..
