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Ethereum (ETH) Currently priced at $1,634.35, Ethereum has been modestly gaining approximately 0.72% in an intraday view.
While this short bounce is unfolding, there is still plenty of selling pressure on ETH. The market structure, combined with a technical perspective and macroeconomic factors, favors further advancement in the downside risk. Several analysts and on-chain observers are of the opinion that Ethereum may revisit the $1,000 level, a viewpoint consistent with recent price action observed on the asset.
Ethereum's Price Action Ethereum was under severe volatility in early April. Selling pressure re-emerged heavily as the price plunged to a two-year low near $1,410 due to a large wave of liquidations of high leverage positions in DeFi. Indeed, over $230 million in liquidations were seen in Aave and Maker, forcing the liquidation of these leveraged positions.
This primarily resulted in panic-selling. Short-term holders, particularly from the February-March rally, sold their positions at over $500 million in realized losses. Another round of sell-offs would ensue as many investors tried to minimize their downside exposure furthering Ethereum price pressure.
Near the $1,400 support area, buyers tried to intervene. Weak momentum and uncertainty in the broader crypto market, however, hindered any meaningful recovery. On April 14, Ethereum gathered some momentum but still struggled to rally through critical resistance, stuck within the confines of a descending formation.
On the daily and weekly charts, Ethereum continues to move within the confines of a descending channel pattern. In existence since December 2024, unless a confirmed breakout occurs, this structure would lend itself to a bearish interpretation. There are multiple technical factors suggesting a retest of the $1,000-$1,200 level: RSI is now found right around 30-35, which points to the token being sold off.
In such conditions, buyers might be tempted to join in for a rebound; however, very low RSI levels are often met during longer-term downtrends where the token keeps falling further before eventually stabilizing. The MACD histogram has consistently shown bearish momentum. The MACD slope is still below the signal line, which indicates continued bearish pressure.
Currently, Ethereum has failed to maintain itself above the 50 and 100 days moving averages; rather, they are acting as resistance. There seem to be more sell-off days than buy days. This is a distribution sign and not an accumulation sign.
This means the more sellers dominate, the more probability Ethereum revisits other support levels. On-Chain Data Reflects Market Weakness The recent on-chain activities signal an increased risk factor. Most of the selling volume now belongs to wallets that purchased ETH in the last 30–45 days.
These short-term holders are gradually liquidating their tokens, fearing further downside. The more worrying part is that even wallets that purchased ETH about 12-24 months ago have begun to distribute their holdings. These wallets generally have a higher conviction, which means that this selling activity indicates a changing mindset from the longer-term players.
Network transaction fees also showed a downtrend in the past week due to declining activity across Ethereum-based decentralized apps. While gas fees are still higher compared to other blockchains, demand metrics for Ethereum's smart contract services have apparently declined, possibly reflective of a risk-off sentiment across the crypto markets. External Pressure: Macroeconomics and Regulation Macroeconomic variables still exert influence on the crypto sector.
April's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report had inflation readings above market expectations, thus fueling speculation for an interest rate hike in May, further undermining risk appetite in equities and crypto.
At the same time, U.S. regulators released their guidelines about Ethereum-based ETFs at exchanges.
The approval of these ETFs represented a watershed moment for Ethereum's incorporation into traditional finance. However, the SEC prohibited staking on these ETFs, possibly undermining ETH's yield appeal within institutional portfolios. This policy could further diminish Ethereum's edge against Layer 1 alternatives that pay out higher native returns.
Bearish Case: Road to 1K The road ahead for Ethereum dropping to $1,000 continues to be governed by a plethora of technicals and fundamentals: Failure to Hold $1,450: Ethereum's loss in support of the current pivot area would buffer the momentum-driven selling toward $1,200, which is the next historical support. Wider Crypto Sell-Off: Recent brushings near $85,000 for Bitcoin set the tone for the altcoins. Bitcoin dropping could trigger ETH liquidations further down the spot and derivatives markets.
Decreased in TVL: Ethereum's TVL continues to fall in DeFi protocols. A longer downtrend in TVL could rob Ethereum of any fundamental strength, which would turn investor confidence sour. Institutional Reductions: Following from a slowdown or reversal of spot ETF inflows, critical institutional support for ETH may retract, thus further weakening its standing.
Bullish Scenario: Signs of Reversal The bearish environment notwithstanding, a handful of potential recovery signs are observable with Ethereum: Technical analysts have drawn attention to a falling wedge formation, a pattern typically resulting in a breakout. Assuming Ethereum ever manages to push through the wall of resistance presented by the apex of the wedge, there is a strong likelihood of an advance back toward the $2,100-$2,200 area. The MVRV Z-score, a widely used metric comparing market value and realized value, is now at -0.
83, indicating undervaluation. Ethereum has typically rallied after reaching similar MVRV readings, indicating potential accumulation phases. Despite the decline in TVL, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap and Curve are still reasonably active.
Weekly DEX volume above $17.2 billion affirms Ethereum's supremacy in the decentralized finance ecosystem. The scaling solutions that include Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base attract their fair share of users and developers.
The building activities alleviate congestion on Ethereum Layer 1 and improve the user experience while proving ETH's utility across platforms. Market Outlook for Q2 2025 The market strategists expect volatility to carry on during Q2. Ethereum will most probably be consolidating between $1,450 and $1,700 before taking action.
Should the macroeconomic data turn encouraging and Bitcoin's bull run resume, Ethereum may well follow up strongly, but a negative jolt like a regulatory crackdown or a global liquidity squeeze may trigger a deeper correction. Ethereum's key support zones are $1,450, $1,200, and $1,000, and the resistance zones are around $1,750, $1,900, and $2,150. Analysts suggest the monitoring of ETF inflows, on-chain activity, and macroeconomic indicators as leading signals.
A decisive break above $1,750 on high volume could trigger off a short squeeze that would reverse the trend. Until then, Ethereum remains on the cautious path. Ethereum remains under pressure for trading in the month of April 2025.
A drop toward $1,000 based on technical, on-chain, and market-wide factors remains a possibility. Yet Ethereum itself shows resilience by virtue of its DeFi infrastructure, Layer 2 growth, and status as an institutional asset. The market travels in equilibrium between breakdown and breakout.
Ethereum's next move is contingent on investor behaviors at levels of significance; a correlated performance of the wider crypto ecosystem will often ensue. With the month of April, drawing toward a close, Ethereum finds itself at a technical and fundamental crossroad, with outcomes likely keyed by macro force and innovation networking..
