Election Results Update, Day 10

10 days out from the election and results are still trickling in, with an estimated 2.6 million votes yet to be counted at this point — mostly from the following states: CA 833k, NJ 306k, IL 302k, OH 196k, WA 166k, MD 118k, NY 112k, MA 96k, CO 79k, OR 42k, MN 39k, AZ 37k, PA 36k, TX 36k, MS 33k, AR 30k, NC 22k. With Trump’s total now up to 76,453,640 vs Harris’s 73,755,129, Trump’s supposed mandate has now shrunk to a margin of just 2.

7 million and 1.8% (50.0% vs 48.



2%) — smaller than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin over Trump in 2016 of 2.9 million and 2.1%, and much smaller than Biden’s 7.

1 million and 4.5% margin in 2020. And since most of the outstanding vote is in Blue states, particularly CA, I’m projecting his margins will continue to shrink even more — down to a final margin of 2.

3-2.4 million and 1.5%-1.

6%. Note that this projected final combined total of nearly 153 million votes is just a little more than 2.5 million short of the record 155.

5 million racked up by Biden and Trump in 2020. Incredible as it may seem, it looks like Trump will have picked up more than 3 million additional votes from what he managed in 2020, and Harris will have lost nearly 6 million from Biden’s 2020 total. Following is a state-by-state rundown of where we now stand, with projected totals including a proportionate share of any still uncounted votes based on election results data from nbcnews , and how that compares to 2020 totals based on data from wikipedia : 2024 vs 2020 State Election Results State Harris (x1000) H24-B20 (x1000) Trump (x1000) T24-T20 (x1000) 2024 Dem-Rep Margin Dem-Rep Margin Shift AL AK >AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL >GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA >MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY >NC ND OH OK OR >PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV >WI WY USA 770.

4 131.2 1,588.6 406.

3 9,365.1 1,771.4 1,000.

4 289.8 286.8 4,681.

0 2,549.9 313.0 276.

5 3,153.3 1,171.0 707.

3 537.8 702.6 768.

1 426.7 1,869.0 2,134.

3 2,739.9 1,677.3 448.

5 1,192.8 233.6 365.

5 704.1 418.4 2,328.

4 478.7 4,445.9 2,724.

8 113.3 2,563.0 499.

6 1,212.6 3,427.6 284.

0 1,028.5 146.9 1,060.

6 4,821.9 547.9 235.

8 2,333.1 2,312.0 215.

0 1,670.5 69.5 75,200.

1 -79.2 -22.6 -83.

5 -17.6 -1,745.5 -33.

0 -80.4 -6.5 -30.

5 -616.0 76.3 -53.

1 -10.5 -318.6 -71.

5 -51.8 -32.5 -69.

9 -87.9 -8.4 -116.

0 -247.9 -64.1 -39.

8 -90.9 -60.2 -11.

2 -9.1 0.6 -6.

5 -280.0 -22.9 -799.

0 40.5 -1.7 -116.

2 -4.3 -127.8 -30.

6 -23.5 -63.0 -3.

6 -83.1 -437.2 -12.

4 -7.0 -80.5 -57.

6 -21.0 39.6 -4.

0 -6,083.1 1,459.7 176.

1 1,776.5 778.0 6,059.

4 1,412.0 744.6 214.

4 20.7 6,109.6 2,665.

1 193.7 608.6 2,559.

1 1,738.5 927.0 749.

7 1,339.5 1,210.4 368.

8 1,052.2 1,274.5 2,820.

4 1,537.7 736.6 1,741.

9 354.7 562.7 750.

6 395.4 2,076.3 423.

3 3,510.5 2,909.2 248.

9 3,226.4 1,036.2 908.

1 3,554.0 214.5 1,483.

7 272.1 1,974.9 6,395.

8 861.6 119.4 2,073.

8 1,569.2 535.2 1,700.

3 192.6 77,623.9 18.

5 -13.9 114.8 17.

4 52.9 47.4 29.

9 13.8 2.1 440.

9 203.2 -3.2 54.

5 112.2 8.6 29.

3 -21.7 12.9 -45.

4 8.1 75.8 107.

3 170.5 53.6 -20.

2 23.2 11.1 5.

8 80.7 29.7 193.

0 21.4 258.5 150.

4 13.1 71.6 15.

9 -50.3 176.3 14.

6 98.6 11.1 122.

4 505.5 -3.5 6.

7 111.4 -15.5 -10.

2 90.1 -1.0 3,400.

0 -30.9% -14.6% -5.

6% -31.4% 21.4% 11.

3% 14.7% 15.0% 86.

5% -13.2% -2.2% 23.

5% -37.5% 10.4% -19.

5% -13.4% -16.5% -31.

2% -22.4% 7.3% 28.

0% 25.2% -1.4% 4.

3% -24.3% -18.7% -20.

6% -21.2% -3.2% 2.

8% 5.7% 6.1% 11.

8% -3.3% -37.4% -11.

5% -34.9% 14.4% -1.

8% 13.9% -18.1% -29.

9% -30.1% -14.0% -22.

3% 32.8% 5.9% 19.

1% -42.7% -0.9% -47.

0% -1.6% -5.1% -4.

1% -5.9% -3.0% -8.

4% -2.6% -5.7% -4.

3% -2.4% -9.8% -2.

4% -6.5% -5.8% -6.

9% -3.1% -5.1% -1.

5% -4.8% -3.4% -2.

1% -6.1% -9.0% -4.

3% -2.9% -7.5% -3.

0% -3.8% -1.7% -5.

6% -4.7% -10.4% -4.

9% -11.7% -1.9% -3.

0% -3.3% -1.1% -2.

3% -3.0% -7.3% -6.

3% -3.0% -6.5% -8.

4% -0.9% -3.8% -4.

4% -0.7% -3.1% -1.

5% -2.0% -6.1% Note that in several of the swing states, Harris is actually getting more votes than Biden got in 2020, which reflects the positive impact of her campaign there — even if Trump managed to get considerably more than in 2020.

Note also that Trump did not end up improving on his 2020 vote totals everywhere, in 10 states he actually lost votes from 2020, though not nearly as many as Harris ended up losing from Biden’s 2020 totals. Regarding the PA Senate race, Casey has closed an initial 40,000 vote deficit to less than 22,000 as of Nov 15, with 36,000 votes apparently yet to count. Unfortunately, it looks like just 11,000 of those are still from Philadelphia, so it’s looking increasingly doubtful if he’ll be able to close the remaining gap — but the whole thing is headed for an automatic recount.

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