2 weeks Ago
Topline The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tied, with multiple new polls showing Harris with an edge in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump leads in the Southeast and Arizona—meaning the race will come down to Pennsylvania, which is essentially a tossup. Key Facts Big Number 1.4 points.
That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average . Key Background Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes) Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes) Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes) North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes) Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes) Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes) Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes) Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes).
