El Nino ruled out during monsoon this year: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has “ruled out” the possibility of an El Nino in the coming southwest monsoon season this year. An El Nino, characterised by a warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, is frequently associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India. “Based on the climate forecasts, including international ones, we can rule out El Nino for the monsoon.

We will most likely see neutral El Nino conditions,” M. Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD said in a briefing on Monday. Also read | April-June to be hotter than usual, more heatwave days likely in many States: IMD In 2023, which was an El Nino year, the monsoon season saw a 6% deficit.



Last year witnessed an 8% surplus as “neutral conditions” prevailed. An El Nino implies a temperature rise between 0.5 to 1 degree in the Central Pacific.

“Neutral” suggests no such rise. However there have been instances when neutral conditions had led to below-normal rain in India. The IMD gives its first forecast, on monsoon rainfall for a year, in April followed by updated forecasts.

“We will have to wait for the April forecast to get a sense of the monsoon rainfall this year,” said Mr. Mohapatra, adding, “Regional factors and conditions in oceans surrounding India [Indian Ocean particularly] also have to be considered during forecasts.” Before the monsoons kick in, however, India will be reeling in “above normal” temperatures during the summer months.

From April to June, India on average reports four to seven heatwave days, defined as temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius or greater-than-five-degrees rise from what’s normal in a region. “Parts of eastern India could potentially see 10 heatwave days this year ” said Mr. Mohapatra.

“During the April, May and June (AMJ) hot-weather season, above-normal number of heatwave days are likely to occur over most parts of the north and east peninsula, central India, east India, and plains of northwest India. During April 2025, above-normal number of heatwave days are likely over most parts of east and central India adjoining peninsular India,” the agency said in a statement. In March, several parts of central and southern India reported “above-normal” temperatures and one of the potential reasons was changes in climate due to “global warming”, said Mr.

Mohapatra. Published - March 31, 2025 11:02 pm IST Copy link Email Facebook Twitter Telegram LinkedIn WhatsApp Reddit weather news / weather / weather science.