1 week Ago By Heather Saul
It is day 994 of the war in Europe, created by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine . It is also around eight weeks until President Donald Trump once again brings his leadership to the White House – and the planet. Dithering, timid European leaders must decide very quickly whether to acquiesce to the Kremlin in a Chamberlain-type manner, or stick two fingers up to Putin, Churchillian style.
The new reality is that Sir Keir Starmer and the French President Emmanuel Macron have eight weeks to save Ukraine and Europe from another devastating war. These are the two nuclear nations who will prevent Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine when Trump inevitably casts Europe adrift after his inauguration as US President on 25 January. It is also Britain and France which probably have the military heft and knowledge to enable Ukraine.
But with Finland and Sweden capable of offering armies of manpower and capability to secure Europe’s northern flank, the rest of Nato can secure the centre and south, at the same time as supporting Ukraine, which might have to include our own boots-on-the-ground, or at least missile, aircraft and intelligence assets . Putin appears to be gambling all on a massive attack to retake the border region of Kursk before 25 January. Thousands of Russian and North Korean soldiers have been killed, but Putin has amassed another 50,000 soldiers to do the job.
His mental arithmetic should tell him he has just about three weeks of manpower to get the job done. It seems likely that the 11,000 or so North Korean soldiers who have been deployed to fight will also perish in Kursk in the next few weeks, a spectacle that even North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will find difficult to hide. Read Next The only 'special relationship' Trump cares about is with Russia There are reports that the latest Russian conscripts now know they are being thrown into the “meat grinder” with little training or ammunition.
If this does not show the parlous state of the Russian Army and encourage Western leaders to put the boot-in, we might as well give up and raise the hammer and sickle across Eastern Europe once again. This must embolden European leaders. Whoever holds Kursk by Christmas holds the vital ground in this conflict, and if Trump forces a ceasefire to end the war the day he hits the West Wing, it is essential that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has the whip-hand in the negotiations.
Putin’s plan appears to be to launch hundreds of kamikaze drones at Ukraine forces in Kursk, as well as many more missiles at Ukrainian cities and power infrastructure. If Zelensky can use UK Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles to attack into Russia, Ukraine might just be able to hold out and stop most of these attacks. All these drones and missiles are launched from airfields and positions well within range of UK and French missiles, whose exact location is no doubt plotted on a moment by moment basis by Nato intelligence assets, which are abundant in the region.
If Putin prevails, the Baltic states are next, and they are members of Nato. With Trump in power, we can no longer rely on the US to come to Europe’s aid, even if Article 5 is triggered by an attack on a Nato member. This would be likely to require British tanks to fight in the Baltics, and on a current projection, our professional Army would be exhausted psychologically and physically within a matter of weeks.
Starmer must learn that good military decisions are made as early as possible. Politicians often make decisions at the last possible moment, which has proved disastrous for Ukraine. We must do everything we can now with our 2.
3 per cent spending of GDP on defence, or be prepared to pay way over three per cent if we need to fight in Europe, which will damage Labour’s already creaky plans for growth. This at least should encourage Starmer to give Zelensky a chance to finish the war before we have to wade in. Starmer has not got much right thus far, but he now has a chance to change history.
He should not worry too much what the US thinks because Trump does not care much for us or Europe. His overarching foreign policy seems to be focused almost entirely on fortress USA. Chamberlain or Churchill, Sir Keir? Let us hope you are up to this monumental task.
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