Doug Ford’s Conservatives would win Ontario election if called today: new poll

Article content If an election was called in Ontario today, a new poll suggests the voters would hand Premier Doug Ford a clear victory. A new Leger poll, exclusive to the National Post, put Ford’s Progressive Conservatives 24 points ahead of the Liberals. The results indicate 46 per cent of poll respondents expressed support for the reigning Tories versus 22 per cent for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, 19 per cent for the NDP, just 7 per cent for the Green Party and 6 per cent other.

An election call in Ontario seems imminent in the wake of Ford’s recently voiced signals that he needs a mandate from the electorate to spend tens of billions of dollars in stimulus funds deemed necessary to counter tariffs threatened by newly ensconced U.S. president, Donald Trump.



A snap election could come at the end of February or early March. On Tuesday afternoon his chief of staff reportedly fired off an “election-readiness” memo indicating that the stronger the mandate, the better. The results of the Leger poll, entitled “Voting Intentions of in Ontario”, accord with Ford’s concern about boosting the province’s economy.

The major issues for Ontario voters lined up as follows: cost of living (28 per cent); health care (12 per cent); the economy (11 per cent). Other major issues for Ontario voters include: access to a doctor (6 per cent); health-care wait times (6 per cent); relations with the U.S.

, including tariff concerns (5 per cent) affordable housing (4 per cent); immigration (4 per cent); crime (3 per cent) and so on. The environment bottomed out the list at 2 per cent. The Bonnie Crombie Liberals are not too far behind Ford and his party in Toronto with 31 per cent support for the former and 38 per cent for the later.

Tory support can be found more solidly in other GTA communities (53 per cent for the Conservatives and 23 per cent for the Liberals). Ford’s Tories have sizeable leads in Southern, Eastern and Northern Ontario. Among male voters, 50 per cent indicated support for the Conservatives, while just 18 per cent did for the Liberals.

Still, 42 per cent of female voters expressed support for the Tories, versus 26 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP is popular among a majority of younger voters, ages 18-34, with 29 per cent. The Greens have 15 per cent support from voters ages 35-54.

Unsurprisingly, the leaders enjoyed a majority of support among their respective party faithful. The cost of living was the headline issue for voters stating a Conservative allegiance (32 per cent), followed by 19 per cent of Liberals and 32 per cent of NDP supporters. The economy followed among Tory supporters, whereas health care generally came second for Liberals and NDP folks.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 17 and 19, 2025. The stated probability of error was plus or minus 3.

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