2 weeks Ago
Ton Photograph/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partners and Friends, Desert Lion Fund returned approximately +3.2% net for the month of September. Year to date, the Fund has returned +36.
6% net, compared to the +19.3% returned by the JSE All Share Index (J203). Single-digit PE for high double-digit E growth In our July 2023 letter, we detailed our thesis that Calgro ( OTCPK:CLMHF , JSE: CGR) was a fallen angel with solid fundamental prospects that were unappreciated by the market.
Our position is up over 100% (gross) to date; however, the shares remain extremely cheap and we see years of strong momentum ahead. As a refresher, Calgro is a residential property developer that focuses on affordable housing in the main South African metropolitan areas of Gauteng and Cape Town. Calgro delivered a stellar set of results for H1 August 2024.
H1 EPS of R1.04 was up 29% (H1 2024 over H1 2023), aided by expansion of GP margin and reduction of share count thanks to buybacks at depressed valuations. We estimate full year earnings to February 2025 to be meaningfully higher than the current TTM EPS of R2.
15 as H2 is usually much better than H1 due to seasonal factors. The balance sheet is healthy, and the business maintained a ROE of 15%. Calgro recently announced that two of its senior managers, Wikus Lategan (CEO) and Waldi Joubert (previous CFO), would be leaving the company by December 2024.
This obviously set off some alarm bells. After the release of their results, I had the opportunity to meet with outgoing and incoming management to discuss the transition and what to expect regarding strategy going forward. I came away satisfied that the company is in good hands and that its prospects are favorable.
The CEO- designate, Ben Pierre Malherbe, is one of the three founders of Calgro and was previously the CEO until about 2017. I was invested in Calgro from around 2013 to 2016 and got to know Ben Pierre as a proficient operator. It seems that he retired too early and is re-energized and ready for a second stint as CEO.
Not only do we believe in Ben Pierre’s ability, but his interests are also aligned with ours, as he is a meaningful shareholder in the company. In Closing At a price of R6.50, Calgro is trading at a 3 times PE multiple and less than 0.
5 of realizable book value. Thanks to shrewd capital allocation, cost management, and margin expansion, EPS is growing at high double digits. With solid demand due to an affordable housing backlog, improved economic outlook, and decreasing interest rate cycle, the outlook is decidedly positive and we believe Calgro can maintain this momentum for several years to come.
This is just another example of the type of opportunities we are able to find in the inefficient market of SA equities. Our Fund is different. We uncover opportunities that other funds cannot or will not, and we are small and agile enough to include those opportunities in our portfolio, thereby giving our investors direct exposure to opportunities that they wouldn’t be able to access otherwise.
I am excited about SA’s improving investment and political environment combined with the cheap valuations. Desert Lion’s performance so far in 2024 has been satisfactory. That said, given the extended period of South African equities’ underperformance, we believe the cycle has just inflected recently and we could still be in the early innings.
To our limited partners, as always, I thank you for patiently entrusting Desert Lion with your hard- earned capital. The majority of my wealth is invested in the Fund, right alongside yours. All the best, Rudi van Niekerk Disclaimer This document (the “Document”) has been prepared solely for use by potential investors in Desert Lion Capital Fund I, LP (the “Fund”), which is managed by Desert Lion Capital Investment Management, LP (together with its affiliates, “Desert Lion Capital”), and shall be maintained in strict confidence.
The recipient agrees that the contents of this Document are confidential, the disclosure of which is likely to cause substantial and irreparable competitive harm to Desert Lion Capital and or its investment vehicles and their respective affiliates. Any reproduction or distribution of this Document, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Desert Lion Capital is prohibited. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete and no obligation to update or otherwise revise such information is being assumed.
Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the analysis. Any assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. This Document shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy which may be made only at the time a qualified offeree receives a private placement memorandum describing the offering and related subscription agreement.
Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. All information contained in this Document is qualified in its entirety by information contained in the Fund’s confidential private placement memorandum. An investor should consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing.
This and other important information about the Fund can be found in the Fund’s offering memorandum. Please read the confidential private placement memorandum carefully before investing. The information in this Document is only current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.
Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information in the Document. Some of the statements presented herein may contain constitute forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Although Desert Lion Capital believes the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Desert Lion Capital can give no assurance that such expectations will be attained and therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements.
Desert Lion Capital undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements appearing in this Document. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. Diversification does not assure a profit or guarantee against loss in declining markets.
Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the underlying funds before investing. The views, opinions, and assumptions expressed in this Document are as of the date of this Document, are subject to change without notice, may not come to pass and do not represent a recommendation or offer of any particular security, strategy or investment. The Document does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate the matters discussed therein.
It is not intended to be a risk disclosure document. Further, the Document is not intended to provide recommendations, and should not be relied upon for tax, accounting, legal or business advice. The persons to whom this document has been delivered are encouraged to ask questions of and receive answers from Desert Lion Capital and to obtain any additional information they deem necessary concerning the matters described herein.
None of the information contained herein has been filed or will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, any regulator under any state securities laws or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has passed or will pass on the merits of this offering or the adequacy of this document. Any representation to the contrary is unlawful.
References to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (“MXEF”) and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (JSE alpha code “ALSH” or JSE index code “J203”) are based on published results and, although obtained from sources believed to be accurate, have not been independently verified. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is referred to only because it represents an index typically used to gauge the general performance of the midcap and large caps in global emerging equity markets in more than two dozen emerging market countries including South Africa, China, India, Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates and others. The returns for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index include realized and unrealized gains and losses plus reinvested dividends but do not include fees, commissions and/or markups.
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index is referred to only because it represents an index typically used to gauge the general performance of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as a whole. The returns of the FTSE/JSE All Share Index include realized and unrealized gains and losses, but do not include the reinvestment of dividends, and do not include fees, commissions and/or markups. The use of these indices is not meant to be indicative of the asset composition, volatility or strategy of the portfolio of securities held by the Fund.
The Fund's portfolio may or may not include securities which comprise the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, will hold considerably fewer than the number of different securities which comprise the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index and engages or may engage in Fund strategies not employed by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index including, without limitation, short selling and utilizing leverage. As such, an investment in the Fund should be considered riskier than an investment in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Furthermore, indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.
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