3 days Ago
As the dust settles from Election Day, many have begun their autopsies on Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, trying to parse out what talking points or issues ultimately led to her defeat. Domestic issues and the minutiae of campaigning certainly play a big role in any campaign. But a broader analysis of global trends shows that Harris was fighting against some pretty strong headwinds and that any Democratic victory or overperformance would have turned out to be quite the global anomaly.
By the time 2024 is done, more voters will have gone to the polls than in any other year in history . And among the half of the world's population living in a country with a national election this year, a clear and consistent picture has emerged: Voters are extremely upset with their governments. Among democracies* that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election.
That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe. Many of these losses have been historic: In countries like Japan, Botswana and South Africa, incumbent parties that had dominated domestic politics for decades lost their majorities and have either relinquished power or are holding on through cobbled-together coalitions with minor parties. In Senegal, now-President Bassirou Diomaye Faye became the first opposition candidate to win a presidential election in the first round since the country became independent in 1960.
Sri Lankan voters delivered a landslide win to the opposition two years after storming the presidential mansion , forcing the incumbent to flee the country. And in Europe , voters across 14 countries delivered sharp rebukes to almost every incumbent government up for reelection. When taken together, these defeats are especially striking considering the well-documented advantage that incumbent governments have historically had in elections.
While the U.S. ultimately proved to be no exception to this trend, Democrats actually performed fairly well when compared to some of the losses seen in other countries.
As the Financial Times noted, Democrats endured one of the smallest losses in vote share of all incumbent parties in higher-income countries that were on the ballot this year. Harris came quite close to winning several swing states, and Democrats look likely to avoid losing much, if any, ground in the House of Representatives — and they could even gain a seat . One potential explanation for Democrats' milder defeat is the relative strength of the U.
S. economy compared to those around the world. Most countries have seen soaring inflation and stagnant or painfully slow economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.
By many measures, the U.S. is a striking exception to that global trend, with strong growth in GDP and real wages.
Some economic metrics are outpacing even pre-pandemic trends. But just because the U.S.
's economy is performing better than that of many other countries doesn't mean it's in perfect shape or that voters aren't still unhappy with it. As 538 explored earlier this summer , the economic metrics that Americans care about have shifted in dramatic ways since the pandemic. Issues like inflation and the high cost of housing remained at the forefront of the campaign, drowning out Democrats' attempts to highlight other strong economic indicators like increased wage growth and low unemployment.
The few incumbent governments that did manage to hang on this year did so not on the backs of stellar economic performances, but rather through campaigns that focused heavily on security issues. Mexico, Finland, Moldova and the Dominican Republic all saw incumbent parties gain seats or vote share compared to the last election on the backs of concerns over issues like gang violence and Russian encroachment. National security issues simply didn't dominate the U.
S. campaign in the same way (though immigration, which often gets lumped in with national security, was a top concern for voters ). Ultimately, the U.
S. proved no outlier in the wave of malaise and anger that has toppled incumbents across the globe since the pandemic. Economic anxiety and deep discontent with the direction of the country proved fatal for Democrats, but if trends from this year continue, they have one bright spot on the horizon: Next time, they won't be the incumbents.
Footnotes *In this analysis, we consider a country to be a democracy if its 2023 Democracy Index score is at least 5.00. We excluded countries that did not have a 2023 Democracy Index score, as well as countries where the opposition boycotted the election.
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