2 weeks Ago
The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) seem to be engaged in cut-throat competition in the run-up to the Delhi Elections 2025. Despite being allies at the national level, the two parties decided to go solo in the 2025 Delhi polls. But why? The answer is simple.
The Congress and the AAP , INDIA bloc allies, are contesting against each other in Delhi. The Congress ruled Delhi for 15 years before the AAP swept it out of power in a game-changing electoral battle in 2013. The political fortunes of the Congress seemed to dip coinciding with the meteoric rise of the AAP.
Vote Share The rise of AAP and fall of Congress: A look at seats won and party-wise Vote Share in the Delhi Assembly Elections Why Congress may be all out against AAP? The fear lies in the potential "transfer of votes" between the AAP and the Congress. "Congress voters are easy to transfer to the AAP because they are primarily anti-BJP votes ," political commentator Amitabh Tiwari said during a debate on India Today TV. The Congress had an earlier vote share of over 40 percent, which slumped to 4 per cent in the 2020 Delhi Election polls.
Meanwhile, the AAP's vote share rose to 54 per cent. The vote transfer could also happen between the AAP and the BJP, but that margin is likely to be low. An analysis of past Delhi Assembly elections showed that while the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) vote share remained nearly constant over the years, that of the Congress declined significantly when the AAP clenched power in the national capital in 2013.
This data is used to claim that while the BJP has more or less retained its vote bank, the AAP has taken a large section of Congress' support into its court. Several political experts, therefore, believe that Congress may gain at the expense of the AAP. "Congress gain is likely to come at the expense of the AAP because that is the very complementary type of vote share.
..," political commentator Amitabh Tiwari told India Today ahead of the Delhi Election.
He explained in one of the interviews that the majority of leads that the AAP gets over the BJP are primarily among minorities. "The lead is of 30% to 50%. But the BJP leads the Hindus by around 10 percent.
So, if the minority votes shift towards Congress even slightly, then the lead that the AAP has could shrink, and this could turn the table," he said. But there's flip side too..
. Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of the polling agency C-Voter , that there could be a transfer from the Congress and the BJP to the AAP. In an interview with News Tak, he said that 80 out of 100 women who voted for the AAP in 2020 assembly polls may still choose the party this time.
He said that a majority (45 of 100) of women who voted for the Congress in the last Delhi Assembly Election are likely to vote for the AAP this time. Around 17-18 may vote for the BJP, and the Congress could retain only one-third (33 of 100) women voters in 2025 polls. Moreover, 65 out 100 women who voted for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election are still voting for the BJP and "around 25 are swinging their vote to the AAP", Deshmukh said.
"This bipolarisation among women voters could benefit the AAP," Yashwant said. Congress 'singles-out' AAP In a rare optics, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi singled out AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and, at one point, compared him with Prime Minister Narendra Modi . He argued that Kejriwal is the "sophisticated version" of PM Modi.
At his first public meeting for Delhi polls, Rahul Gandhi said Kejriwal was following "Modi's strategy of propaganda and false promises" despite rising pollution, corruption and inflation in the national capital. Minutes later, Kejriwal hit back, saying Rahul Gandhi "abused" him a lot, but he would not comment on the Congress leader's statements. "His fight is to save Congress; my fight is to save the country," the AAP chief had said.
Congress leader Ajay Maken denied that these statements by Congress leadership were "personalized attacks" on Kejriwal. When asked why Rahul Gandhi chose now to attack Arvind Kejriwal, Maken told news agency ANI, “There is something new which has happened and that something new is the CAG report which has just come out..
.So the CAG report..
.explains about the 'Sheesh mahal'. It explains about the liquor scam.
..” Many believe that in this election, Congress has singled out the AAP in its attacks, while Arvind Kejriwal's party has targeted Congress leader Rahul Gandhi while campaigning for Delhi elections.
Political experts have also analysed the chances of the AAP retaining its vote base or Congress eating into the AAP's vote share in the 2025 Delhi Elections. The Election Commission will announce the results on February 8. Delhi's fate will, however, be sealed on February 5, when voting takes place in all 70 assembly seats.
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