1 week Ago By Joseph R. DeTrani
Numerous allies have expressed concerns regarding the nuclear weapons programs of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Much was in the context of U.S.
extended nuclear deterrence commitments and concern with U.S. credibility.
These concerns are not unreasonable, given that Russia has a growing sophisticated nuclear weapons program with about 5,580 nuclear weapons, 1,710 deployed, and threatens to use them in its war of aggression in Ukraine. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal, with plans for 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, while constructing approximately 120 missile silos in Gansu province and 110 in Xinjiang province to support the deployment of these weapons. North Korea reportedly has about 60 nuclear weapons and could exceed 200 by 2027.
Recently, it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with a 9,320-mile range. Iran has an aggressive uranium enrichment program and continues to limit access to International Atomic Energy Agency monitors. Each of these countries has an impressive ballistic missile program.
Russia, China and North Korea are also making progress with hypersonic and cruise missiles. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the U.S.
and Russia ends in February 2026, and another arms control agreement is unlikely. China has consistently refused U.S.
requests for arms control negotiations. Since the failure of the Hanoi Summit in February 2019, North Korea has refused to meet with the U.S.
to discuss its nuclear weapons program. Iran rejected direct negotiations with the U.S.
in response to a letter from President Trump but finally and wisely realized it would be in its interest to talk, given the likelihood that the Trump administration is considering a kinetic attack on its nuclear facilities. Russia, China and North Korea will continue to exponentially increase the number and sophistication of their nuclear weapons. Iran is likely to remain a threshold nuclear weapons state.
Meaningful arms control talks with any of these “axis of authoritarian states” are unlikely. The nuclear programs of each of these “axis” countries are of concern to neighboring countries. South Korea and Japan are concerned with North Korea’s nuclear escalation and its provocative behavior.
Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey are concerned with Iran’s likely pursuit of a nuclear weapon and its support to proxies — Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah — threatening the region. NATO, East Europe, the Caucasus and the Baltic states are all concerned with a revanchist Russia, especially if Russia prevails in its war with Ukraine. China’s military buildup, including the exponential increase in its nuclear capabilities, is of concern to Taiwan and all countries in East Asia.
Despite U.S. extended deterrence commitments, South Korea and Japan will likely seek nuclear weapons eventually.
Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia may consider establishing nuclear weapons programs in response to China’s activities regarding Taiwan and its behavior in the South and East China seas. NATO, given Russia’s war of aggression with Ukraine, is finally committing more of its resources to defense, intending to spend 3% to 5% of its gross domestic product on defense. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey will likely build or acquire nuclear weapons.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, established in 1970 to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology and to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy, has been relatively successful in limiting the number of nuclear-armed nations. This positive story is changing, however. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the obvious shortcomings of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which involved Russian security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s relinquishing of more than 1,700 nuclear weapons, there is now a view that Ukraine should not have given up all its nuclear weapons.
The view is that if Ukraine retained even a few nuclear weapons, Russia would not have invaded in February 2022. This is a stark message to other countries, a message that argues for nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Given the nuclear buildup of Russia, China and North Korea and the likelihood that other countries will work to acquire nuclear weapons capability or purchase nuclear weapons, the Trump administration has emphasized the need to pursue an ambitious missile defense capability for the U.
S. This “Golden Dome for America” is long overdue. President Reagan pursued a missile defense system, the Strategic Defense Initiative, in the 1980s, but the technology was lacking.
We now have the technology, and with a Missile Defense Agency working closely with the U.S. Space Force and our defense industry partners, we have an opportunity and responsibility to better protect the U.
S. from the threat of a nuclear attack. Copyright © 2025 The Washington Times, LLC.
..
