2 weeks Ago
By Loukis Skaliotis Europe has stated its goal for greater independence from the US. As with all things European however, it is not going to be an easy endeavour. Even though Germany’s new soon-to-be Chancellor Friedrich Merz, signalled his intention for Germany to borrow a lot more to boost defence and industrial spending, the Green party is dragging its feet in supporting the proposal.
Unless Europeans at large grasp the dangers we are collectively facing, things will become increasingly more difficult. It is not only in matters of military defence that Europe needs awakening. I have mentioned before how America is planning to avert the danger of its ‘America First’ policy degenerating into ‘America alone’.
That is through influencing the outcomes of elections. Two such elections are currently being used as a guinea pig for this strategy. One in Romania and another in Greenland, which even though part of the Danish Kingdom, had elections for local representatives last week.
In Romania on Tuesday, the pro-Russia far right candidate, Calin Georgescu, (an oxymoron if there ever was one), was barred from running in the presidential election in May. This was a legal decision upheld by the top constitutional court in Romania. Needless to say, US Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, as well as the Kremlin, have cried foul and condemned the decision as pushing Romania towards a dictatorship.
European countries in contrast remained silent. You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to figure out that the stakes are high in the global game that is being played out. Particularly if you observe that social media guru Brad Parscale, the partner of US billionaire Tim Dunn, both instrumental in helping Trump get elected in 2024, was helping Georgescu in his campaign.
In Greenland by contrast, US involvement was less subtle. The prospect of untold riches was the crude argument to entice Greenland towards the US. Election results have given the centre-right opposition party a surprising victory.
Greenland’s likely new prime minister has rejected Trump takeover efforts. Forming a government, however, requires a partnership with another party and the situation is still unclear as to what policy towards independence they will pursue. The predominance of money being used as a tool in geopolitical developments is something that Europe must come to grips with quickly.
Utilising the €200 billion of frozen Russian assets held at Brussels based Euroclear, is a necessity. There have been many opinions over the past few months of how to achieve this, but Europe typically has been unable to reach a consensus. Cyprus can perhaps offer a practical example.
The concerns about utilising the assets held at Euroclear have been primarily twofold: The decision must be based in international law and not be arbitrary. Even if international law is seen to be upheld, market reaction could be such that the euro would be severely affected. Claiming the assets through a judgement at the European Court of Human ights (ECtHR), similar to how Cyprus sought damages against Turkey is, I would venture, an approach that addresses both the above two concerns.
For the awarding by the European Court of damages is definitely grounded in International Law. The fact also that this will only apply to countries that are bound by the European Convention of Human Rights, limits the concerns that countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia and others may have had on their own holdings of euro assets at Euroclear. Russia has walked out of the European Convention of Human Rights in September 2022.
However, there are outstanding proceedings, most notably against Crimea, which are binding and could be enforced. Even though, a final decision by the court may require time, there is nothing preventing the application for an interim order on the frozen funds whose assignment can then be used as collateral for any loan that can be granted to Ukraine. Indeed, this proposal has been one, among others, that has been identified by King’s College Professor Philippe Webb in a study paper titled ‘The legal options for confiscation of Russian state assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine’.
Her reservation about this method was that previous ECtHR judgements did not award compensations of such magnitude. Yet, according to human rights lawyer Achilleas Demetriades, who was instrumental in winning cases for Cyprus against Turkey in the ECtHR, the amount of the compensation is only a fraction of the damages incurred and claimed. It cannot be a limiting factor in this case.
Europe needs to speed up the process of making decisions if it is to prove effective in safeguarding the liberties we have been accustomed to. Following Cyprus’ example at the ECtHR will be one way to start. Loukis Skaliotis is an economist.
