12 hours Ago By Nick Bannin
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Colorado State University (CSU) released their initial outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Thursday.In a nutshell, this upcoming hurricane season is expected to be busier than normal with above average named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).CSU Hurricane ForecastThis comes after an incredibly busy 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
Factors in a busy seasonWarmer watersLack of El NiñoThe leading factor pointing to a busier than normal Atlantic Hurricane season is the above normal sea surface temperatures within the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean as well as the warmer temperatures of the Caribbean Sea. Warm waters in the developing regions for tropical systems help with their growth and intensification. CSU also explained that the warmer waters help reduce the winds across the tropical Atlantic, winds that would otherwise help to reduce tropical development.
Sea surface temperature anomalyThe lack of El Niño conditions, which increase wind shear that can tear tropical systems apart, is also a component in the above average season expected. This summer and upcoming fall, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is expected to be either in a Neutral phase or a La Niña phase, neither of which typically add wind shear to reduce storm development.El Niño and Hurricanes (Image: Climate.
gov)Texas at greater riskOdds of a Gulf Coast landfalling hurricane (from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville) are also expected to be above average.CSU expects a 33% chance of a Gulf Coast hurricane landfall this upcoming hurricane season. The 1880-2000 average landfall occurrence is 27% of the time.
More broadly a U.S. coastline landfalling hurricane has a 51% probability of happening this year compared to 43% average.
CSU expect to issue an updated hurricane forecast on June 11.Retired namesThe World Meteorological Organization just announced the retirement of several storms from their list of tropical system names. Names are typically retired if they caused a lot of destruction or fatalities.
The names Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the Atlantic Basin names list and John was retired from the eastern Pacific Basin names list.Beryl was replaced by BriannaHelene was replaced by HollyMilton was replaced by Miguel.John was replaced by Jake.
These names were used in 2024 and will return again in 2030.Storm names for 2025Here's the list of names for the 2025 Atlantic Basin. Should these names all get used up, a backup list of names would be used.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season names.
