2 weeks Ago By Joe Tansey
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers each need a win in the worst way on Sunday night. Dallas had a week off to let the 47-9 loss to the Detroit Lions linger. The Cowboys might take out a ton of frustration inside Levi's Stadium on Sunday night.
San Francisco needs to bounce back after its loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but it may be hard to do so with the injuries piling up on offense. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are both listed as questionable, Brandon Aiyuk was placed on injured reserve this week and Christian McCaffrey is still sidelined. Despite all of those injuries, the 49ers are a 4.
5-point favorite at home against a Cowboys team that may be in a must-win spot depending on what happens across the NFC East earlier on Sunday. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Spread: San Francisco (-4.
5) Over/Under: 47 Money Line: San Francisco (-218; bet $218 to win $100); Dallas (+180; bet $100 to win $180) Dallas and San Francisco both have below .500 records against the spread. The Cowboys have a 2-4 ATS mark, while the 49ers are 3-4.
San Francisco has been favored in every one of its games this season, while Dallas is an underdog for the fourth time. Dallas is 2-2 with outright wins against Cleveland and Pittsburgh as an underdog. Each team has hit the over on four occasions in 2024.
All three of Dallas' games that closed with a total of 47 points or more had the over hit in it. The 49ers are 1-2 to the over in games where the total closed above 47. CeeDee Lamb Over/Under 6.
5 Receptions & Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards Any player prop discussion involving the Cowboys starts with CeeDee Lamb. Dak Prescott might force feed Lamb early on Sunday night in order to get the offense's best skill position player in a rhythm.
Lamb has had at least 60 receiving yards in every game this season, but he's only hit the 75-yard mark on three occasions. Lamb's target rate increased over the last three weeks, as he had 31 balls thrown in his direction during that span. The over on his receptions prop is certainly in play with how often Prescott targets him.
Lamb is averaging 14.6 yards per reception, so if he has a high catch rate, there's a good chance he'll challenge the over on his receiving-yard prop as well. Jake Ferguson Over/Under 4.
5 Receptions & Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards With no true rushing attack, the Cowboys will rely on Lamb and Jake Ferguson to produce a bulk of the offensive yards. Ferguson is Prescott's clear No.
2 target in the passing game. He had at least five targets in four of five appearances this season. Ferguson cleared the receiving-yard prop set for Sunday's game on three occasions this season.
He is averaging 9.6 yards per catch, so if he gets his normal workload of at least four or five catches, he will push the over on the receiving-yard prop. It's hard to trust any other Cowboys player, especially the running backs, so if you do explore the player-prop market, keep it with Lamb and Ferguson.
Deebo Samuel Over/Under 4.5 Receptions & Over/Under 55.5 Receiving Yards Deebo Samuel has to be heavily involved in the San Francisco offense from the first snap for the 49ers to have success on Sunday.
Samuel and George Kittle are the most reliable options for Brock Purdy to work with in the passing game with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings out. Samuel eclipsed the 50-yard mark in four of six games this season. He was not involved last week due to an illness.
If he is healthy, Samuel should expect a similar workload to Week 2, when he caught eight passes on 10 targets against the Minnesota Vikings. San Francisco's offense should enter Sunday with a world of confidence after what Detroit's offense did to Dallas two weeks ago. If the Dallas secondary is that vulnerable again, Samuel could be in line for a massive performance.
Jordan Mason Over/Under 79.5 Rushing Yards Jordan Mason is the only running back to trust from a betting perspective in Sunday night's matchup. Dallas' combination of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott has not worked out great, so the Cowboys may be more reliant on the pass.
San Francisco will use the run to set up an offensive rhythm and Mason will be the main ball carrier. Mason has had at least 14 carries in all but one of his starts in place of Christian McCaffrey. Mason hit the 70-yard mark on six occasions and had more than 80 yards four times, including three 100-yard performances.
The volume will be there for Mason to go over his rushing-yard prop of 79.5 yards. His touchdown prop is worth a serious look as well since Dallas has allowed eight touchdowns to opposing running backs.
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