Could Polish American Voters Swing the Election?

It might have seemed like an obscure callout when Vice President Kamala Harris challenged former President Donald Trump in last week’s debate to “tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator who would eat you for lunch.” Harris was goading Trump over his oft-expressed admiration for Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin and Trump’s boasts that when he was president, he had warned NATO allies that he “would encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member that didn’t pay their dues. Harris’ warning to Polish Americans was that not only would Trump turn his back on Ukraine, but he is ready to throw neighboring Poland, a stalwart NATO member, under the bus of Russian aggression.

It’s a nightmare scenario that keeps U.S. foreign policymakers and diplomats up at night in the White House, the State Department, and at think tanks and foreign embassies across Washington.



Harris’ rhetorical gambit was that what’s happening at Russia’s borders is also on the minds of Americans who have Polish grandparents or great-grandparents. But is it? Matt K. Lewis Sept.

16, 2024 As a scholar of Polish American identity and history, two questions leapt to mind: First, are Polish Americans basing their vote on what’s happening in Ukraine and Poland any more than other Americans – or are their concerns largely the same as the concerns of any other Americans? And second, could Polish American voters in battleground states help determine the outcome of a very, very close election? Consider this: There are half a million people of Polish descent in Wisconsin , a state that President Joe Biden won by just 21,000 votes four years ago. It wouldn’t take many of them to shift the outcome in that closely contested swing state . Officially, there are 9 million Polish Americans in the U.

S. , just under 3% of the total population . This is likely an undercount, since the ancestors of many people who identify as Polish Americans came to this country when Poland had been carved up by its neighbors in the late 18th century and did not exist as an independent country.

Polish Americans are concentrated in a handful of states: Wisconsin (where they account for more than 8% of the state’s population), Michigan (8%) and Pennsylvania (nearly 6%) have the greatest share That said, there are Polish Americans living in every swing state – including Arizona , North Carolina , Georgia and Nevada – where the outcome of the election is likely to be decided by razor-thin margins, and where every vote truly matters. A few factors muddy the waters: Polish Americans descended from immigrants who arrived more than a century ago aren’t the same as more recent arrivals, who are more likely to speak the Polish language and live together in ethnic neighborhoods. So it is fair to wonder if there is a shared identity that translates into a constituency with shared priorities.

The majority of Polish Americans were born in the U.S., and according to the best data available , most of those in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are descended from Poles who came to the U.

S. generations ago. Those whose ancestors arrived 100 years ago tend not to speak the Polish language or live together in the same neighborhoods, so it is fair to wonder if "Polish American voters" have a unique identity.

I believe the answer is: Sometimes. Let me elaborate. Carol Bishop Mills Sept.

16, 2024 Ethnic identity for Americans of European ancestry is often mixed, and many Americans embrace one or more “ symbolic ” or “ optional ” identities. A person who has Polish and Irish roots, for example, can have just as much fun drinking beer and wearing green at a St. Patrick’s Day parade as eating pierogi and dancing polka (originally a Czech dance , but we’ll leave that for another day) at a Polish cultural festival.

Their ethnic heritage may not mean much in their daily lives, aside from cultural or religious associations. My research shows that latent ethnic identity is maintained and nurtured by participation in festivals, heritage celebrations and even sporting events that feature Polish foods, such as kielbasa, and that acknowledge giants in Polish American history, such as Gen. Thaddeus Kościuszko , who fought in the American Revolution , or Gen.

Casimir Pulaski , who helped save George Washington's life in battle. When ethnic identity is nurtured by cultural associations, it can become “active ethnicity,” as when Polish Americans feel joy or take offense at support or snubs from politicians or elected officials. While the Democratic leanings of African American, Asian American and Latino American voters is well known and studied, the same can’t be said of Polish Americans.

The best data available comes from the Piast Institute, a national research center devoted to Polish and Polish American affairs, which surveyed nearly 1,800 Polish Americans between October 2020 and January 2021. They found half identified as Democrats, while 39% identified as Republicans and 11% were independent. Researchers asked if voters were interested in Polish politics on a 0-10 point scale, and the average response was 5.

Polish Americans do not vote as a bloc in the same way they once did . In the first half of the last century, most Polish Americans were New Deal Democrats; in the 1980s, many were ardent Ronald Reagan voters because of his stalwart support for anti-communist forces in Eastern Europe. As the author of the Piast Institute report, political scientist Dominik Stecuła, wrote: “These are the people who can be mobilized and unified on the common interests of the Polish American community.

” Whether Harris’ assertion that Trump poses a risk to Ukraine and Poland taps into Polish American identity enough to swing a state or two remains to be seen, but her campaign seems to think it could. Democrats and their supporters are running political ads about Ukraine aimed at Polish Americans in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The ads evoke powerful images for the Polish diaspora , including the Trumpeter of Kraków , who famously warned of foreign invaders, and the unofficial Polish motto, “ For our freedom and yours ,” which commemorates a failed coup in Russia.

In the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections, Polish Americans supported the Democrat for president , according to the Piast Institute survey.

While naturalized Americans who were born in Poland were more likely to support Trump than those born in the U.S., a plurality of those born in Poland still voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

Perhaps responding to the assault from the Harris campaign, Trump is also making a play for the Polish American vote. On Sunday, Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda are separately expected to visit the National Shrine of Our Lady of Częstochowa in Pennsylvania’s New Britain Township, a site of religious and cultural significance to Polish Americans, where Trump may be hoping for an "accidental" meeting. (Trump hosted Duda in Trump Tower in April this year, when he said he was “behind Poland all the way.

”) Clearly both campaigns are trying to win the Polish American vote. In closely fought battleground states, persuading voters that they can be trusted to defend Polish independence could make all the difference. David J.

Jackson is professor of political science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. He studies the interaction between politics and culture and has a specialty in Polish American identity..