Could bird flu trigger another pandemic?

H5N1 bird flu, a type of avian influenza, is once again making headlines after dozens of people in the United States were infected with the virus. Its spread to seven states and Canada this year has sparked renewed concerns about the potential for a larger outbreak. While health authorities believe the risk to the general public remains low, there is no guarantee that bird flu will ever start spreading from human to human.

According to the National Library of Medicine, birds can contract the flu just like people do, and the viruses that cause the illness in birds can also infect cows and, in rare cases, humans. H5 is one family of bird flu viruses. According to the CDC, a person can contract bird flu if the virus enters their mouth, nose, or eyes or if they inhale it.



The disease can be fatal and varies in severity. Eye infections, moderate upper respiratory symptoms similar to the flu, fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, headaches, body aches, pneumonia, breathing difficulties, diarrhoea, nausea, or seizures are some of its symptoms. In recent years, it has expanded farther than ever before, reaching unexplored areas like Antarctica, a home for penguins .

The World Organization for Animal Health told AFP that 315 different species of wild birds have died in 79 countries since October 2021, while over 300 million poultry birds have been killed or culled. Mass deaths have also occurred in mammals like seals that consumed infected birds. However, in March, the virus started spreading among dairy cows across the US for the first time.

There have been 58 confirmed human cases in seven states in the US during the 2024 outbreak, according to the US-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A total of 32 cases were reported in California, 11 cases in Washington state, 10 cases in Colorado, two cases in Michigan, one each in Missouri, Oregon, and Texas. Although almost all human bird flu patients have come into contact with infected animals, three cases in North America— a child in California , a teenager in Canada, and a person in Missouri—are receiving special attention because it is unknown how they contracted the virus.

The Canadian teenager tested positive for H5N1 bird flu, the country’s first human case, and was receiving treatment for severe respiratory distress at a children’s hospital in British Columbia at the end of November, weeks after symptoms began, according to the CBC. Concerns have also been raised about some human cases going undetected. Eight of the 115 dairy workers who were tested in Michigan and Colorado last month had bird flu antibodies, according to researchers, indicating a seven per cent infection rate.

There’s been no confirmed case of human-to-human transmission. Also read: Spike in EU bird flu outbreaks spark worries of wider spread to humans There are currently a number of indications that “avian flu is knocking on our door and could start a new pandemic any day,” according to Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist at the SAS Institute in the United States, who spoke to AFP . Late last month, the headline of an opinion piece in the New York Times stated, “A bird flu pandemic would be one of the most foreseeable catastrophes in history.

” The fact that the virus would need to change to become stronger at infecting human lungs is one of the many barriers that still prevent H5N1 from spreading easily between people. However, a study that was published Thursday in the journal, Science, showed that the strain of bird flu that is affecting cows in the United States is now only one mutation away from being able to transmit more efficiently among people. This implies that H5N1 is only “a simple step” away from becoming “more dangerous for us,” according to virologist Ed Hutchinson of the University of Glasgow.

A Canadian teenager who had a severe case of bird flu last month had her DNA sequenced, which implies that the virus has begun to develop to investigate ways of adhering more successfully to the cells in their body, according to Hutchinson. However, Schaeffer noted that the “more likely it is to adapt to better infect people,” the more animals and species the virus is permitted to infect. Additionally, she said that because humans lack developed immunity, a bird flu pandemic would be “remarkably severe” in humans.

Imperial College London virologist Tom Peacock told AFP that there are a number of reasons to be “less pessimistic about the possibility of a pandemic.” He noted that there are currently antiviral medications and vaccines for bird flu, which is a significant change from COVID-19 in 2020. Also read: The US is urging people not to cuddle cows.

Here’s why No. Currently, the avian flu pandemic is not considered a global health emergency by the WHO. This category does include outbreaks of COVID-19, cholera, dengue, Marburg virus, and mpox.

Numerous health researchers have called on the US government to increase testing and make sure data is shared across agencies and nations in order to prevent the worst-case situation. The US Department of Agriculture said Friday that it would test the nation’s milk supply for avian flu. According to the CDC, raw milk, which is not pasteurised, can expose people to germs and pose major risks to their health.

The unpasteurised milk has been confirmed to be contaminated with avian flu on multiple occasions. Experts stress that pasteurisation eliminates the avian flu virus and other germs, making pasteurised milk safe to consume. Following the discovery of the virus in some dairy products, California has issued a widespread recall of raw milk and cream in amid growing concerns.

The California Department of Public Health announced the recall following “multiple bird flu virus detections” in Fresno’s Raw Farm, LLC products. Although no one has reported becoming sick, the government advised consumers to “immediately return” any recalled products they might have in their refrigerator. Robert F.

Kennedy Jr., the conspiracy theorist and vaccine sceptic who was chosen by US President-elect Donald Trump to serve as health secretary, is well-known for loving raw milk. Last week, Mark McAfee, a California raw milk producer whose goods had been recalled several times because of avian flu, told The Guardian that Kennedy’s team had asked him to help shape the next administration’s raw milk policy.

Schaeffer said that any suggestion of lifting restrictions on raw milk was “unequivocally a terrible idea and definitely jeopardises the health of humans.” The US Department of Agriculture has authorised four vaccine candidates for use in field testing in dairy cows. According to Reuters, four possible bird flu vaccinations for poultry started testing in 2023.

While there is no widespread vaccination programme for H5N1 in humans, the government is working on vaccines “in case they are needed.” Finland was the first nation in the world to provide bird flu vaccinations to anyone who might be exposed, such as those who work on fur and poultry farms, in the summer of 2024. According to Reuters, Finland purchased vaccines for 10,000 individuals, each of whom needed two doses.

The UK declared in December 2024 that it had obtained over five million doses of the human H5 influenza vaccination. According to a statement from the UK Health Security Agency, the purchase “will boost the country’s resilience in the event of a possible H5 influenza pandemic.” With inputs from agencies.