1 week Ago By Firstpost
The 29th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP 29) began in Baku, Azerbaijan, and will carry on from November 11 to 22, 2024. After the inaugural, the next two days the world leaders will have the “Climate Action” summit. Other major issues on the agenda are climate finance, investment, and trade; energy, peace, relief, and recovery; science, technology, and innovation; digitalisation; human capital, children and youth; health and education; food, agriculture, and water; urbanisation, transport, and tourism; and nature and biodiversity, indigenous people, gender equality, and oceans and coastal zones.
The last day will be for negotiations and final declaration. COP President Sets the Tone Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President, Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Republic of Azerbaijan, wrote to all members, emphasising the two pillars of the COP29 Presidency’s vision: “enhance ambition and enable action”. More nations are realising that they have a common interest and duty to play their part and offer their solutions to confront the climate crisis.
There have to be non-negotiated action agendas, bringing together state and non-state actors, civil society, indigenous people, youth, and private and philanthropic organisations to achieve ambitious outcomes. Climate change affects everyone differently; extreme heat, water scarcity, and declining water levels have a direct impact on lives and livelihoods. But abundant wind and solar potential can play an important role in the renewable energy landscape, supporting transition to low-emissions and climate-resilient development not only at the national but also at the regional and global level.
It is time to lead by example. There is a proposal to look at thematic issues to address digitalisation and tourism and integrate cross-sectorial programming on climate finance, investment, and trade, as well as on human development. Gender equality and youth empowerment will be considered across all themes and initiatives.
All climate pillars involve global, regional, national, and subnational groups, take a holistic view of sustainable development, and include all demographics within an inclusive process that delivers inclusive outcomes. These activities are guided by the principles, objectives, and goals of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. COP29 envisages interoperability with existing international frameworks, partnering with UN and international agencies in the development and delivery, and helping to ensure continuity of COP-to-COP legacies.
It has to be a collective global effort that includes the private sector, academia, NGOs, the UN Task Force for COP29, international organisations, and all parties, constituencies, and non-party stakeholders who provide feedback and ongoing support. It is time to build momentum to enhance ambition, enable action, and move forward in solidarity for a Green world. Climate Change Action is Trump Proof Trump’s return to the US presidency has put questions on climate action.
Trump is a known climate change denier who has promised to increase fossil fuel production and withdraw the US from the Paris climate deal, among other worrying pledges. Trump’s position on climate change has been in the spotlight since he criticised “prophets of doom” at the World Economic Forum in Davos a few years ago. Trump had dismissed “alarmists” who wanted to “control every aspect of our lives”.
Yet he expressed the US’ support for an initiative to plant one trillion trees. So from his words alone, his views on climate change appear contradictory—and confusing. He has called climate change “mythical”, “non-existent”, or “an expensive hoax", but also subsequently described it as a “serious subject” that is “very important to me”.
There are others who believe that notwithstanding Trump’s “America First” agenda, the US will have to keep supporting climate-related policies, which are gradually garnering global support. The global shift to clean energy is accelerating, and Trump’s stopping it will be detrimental to the US. Investment in clean energy has overtaken fossil fuels and will be nearly double investment in coal, oil, and gas in 2024.
A lot of clean energy industrial investments have been made in pro-Republican states and Congressional districts. New factories for batteries and electric vehicles cannot be stopped. Trump supporter Elon Musk makes electric vehicles.
Many Republican Congress members are on record opposing cuts to clean energy tax credits. The US cannot let its competitor, China, dominate global production of electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. There will thus be geopolitical pressure.
The US, under other presidents, has walked away from global climate agreements before, such as refusing to join the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. In his last presidency, Trump did withdraw the US from some climate commitments; many US state and local governments pushed ahead with climate policies. This could happen this time around too.
California, the world’s fifth-largest economy (if it were a nation), has committed to eliminating its greenhouse gas footprint by 2045. Even the highly Republican Texas is leading a shift toward wind and solar power. Trump is bound to carry forward his first presidency’s “Green New Deal”.
In October, twin hurricanes in the US, made stronger by the warming ocean, left a damage bill of more than $100 billion. It is presumed that Trump is conscious of this. Climate Change and Security Climate change is already a defining challenge for security.
A ‘threat multiplier’ that can aggravate conflict and geopolitical competition. Climate change threatens half of US bases worldwide. Adverse climate also makes it harder for the military to do its job.
If India must safeguard the security of 1.4 billion people, it has to look at climate change seriously, mitigate its effects by adapting to it, and engage with the scientific community. The world must reconcile that extreme adverse weather and natural disaster events will increase, and more conflicts will erupt over access to resources and migrations that they may cause.
Climate Change Facts Human activity has warmed the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The June-to-August 2023 was the warmest on record globally by a large margin, at 0.66°C above average.
As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the last four decades have been warmer than any decade since accurate global temperatures began being recorded in the 1850s. Global surface temperatures were on average 1.09°C higher in 2011-2020 than they were in 1850-1900.
The 10 warmest years recorded have been after 2010. Average global precipitation over land has increased since 1950. The global sea level increased by 0.
20 meters between 1901 and 2018. The average annual Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during 2010–2019 were higher than any previous decade. Reducing GHG involves reducing fossil fuel usage.
As per NASA reports, September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 12.3 percent per decade, compared to its average extent during the period from 1981 to 2010. Relative to 1970, the climate reference glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service have lost a volume of ice equivalent to nearly 25 meters of liquid water, the equivalent of slicing 27.
5 meters of ice off the top of each glacier. Himalayan glaciers may lose 75 per cent of ice by 2100, causing dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayas. Recent research found that Mount Everest’s glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.
Absolute salinity is defined as the concentration of dissolved salts in seawater. About 85 per cent of the evaporation and 77 per cent of the precipitation occur over the ocean. Saltier oceans result in increased freezing points, lesser sea ice, and warmer climates, and directly change the width of the habitable zone.
Sea surface salinity impacts coastal military stations and equipment. Salinity has issues for mangroves, as in the Sundarbans. There are other climate trends like droughts, heat waves, heavy rainfall, and floods occurring at higher frequencies.
Rising sea levels mean land erosion, deforestation, desertification, and the breaking down of agriculture systems. Climate Change and Security Implications Security concerns linked to climate change include impacts on food,water,r and energy supplies, increased competition over natural resources, loss of livelihoods, climate-related disasters, and forced migration and displacement. Security establishments around the world are understanding and adapting to climate change.
Assessments are being carried out to understand the impact of climate change on military installations and assets and on missions and operations. Since military forces would have to operate in extreme climatic conditions—very high or low temperatures, humidity, dust, coastal salinity—it could affect both operators and equipment. It would also mean greater demand on the military for Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR), and for restoring critical services such as communications, energy, transport, food, and water supply.
The Rich Must Take More Responsibility It must be remembered that 1 per cent of the richest generates the same carbon emissions as the 50 per cent of the poorest globally. Rich developing countries have polluted the atmosphere in the last 300 years since the Industrial Revolution. They must take responsibility and support the developing world with technology and funding to go Green.
It has to be a global approach. Any funding support by rich nations should be made more democratic and not be tied to political strings. The carbon credit rating system needs to be made more real and implementable.
Countries must reaffirm the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Human activities have already caused around 1.
1°C of warming to date. The carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by 45 per cent this decade to reach net zero around 2050. Developed countries have failed their commitment to deliver $100 billion a year for developing countries.
Private financial institutions and central banks announced moves to realign trillions of dollars towards achieving global net zero emissions. The cost of renewable energy has fallen, thus increasing opportunity. Indian Regional Dynamics There are approximately 15,000 glaciers in the Himalayas.
Each summer, these glaciers release melting water into the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers. Approximately 500 million people depend upon water from these three rivers. These glaciers, like others in the world, are at risk of melting due to increasing temperatures and erratic weather patterns.
Himalayan glaciers may lose 75 per cent of ice by 2100. Glaciers depend on heavy precipitation to replenish ice on an annual basis. Melting glaciers can cause untimely flooding and drought.
Melting glaciers also cause landslides. There are river water issues between India and Pakistan and India and Bangladesh. Most rivers start in China.
China is unwilling to share hydrological data with India. Extreme weather events like cyclones with higher frequency and severity hit India and Bangladesh, causing loss of life and prosperity. Water salinity affects mangroves in Bangladesh, some of which had to be vacated, causing internal migration.
Livelihood affected by climate change results in economic migration, as can be seen from Bangladesh to India. The long-term changes in seawater temperature, acidity, deoxygenation, cyclones, and sea level in the Bay of Bengal impact ocean productivity, habitats, and biological processes. Traditional fisheries are most vulnerable to climate change.
Climate warming also affects the inland and coastal aquaculture sectors of the Bay of Bengal. There are fishing disputes between India and Sri Lanka. India’s Renewable Energy As per the Indian Government, India’s total electricity generation capacity has reached 452.
69 GW. As of October 2024, renewable energy-based electricity generation capacity stands at 201.45 GW, accounting for 46.
3 per cent of the country’s total installed capacity. The percentage is increasing every year, albeit slowly. The remaining 53.
7 per cent was through fossil fuels, (46.7 per cent coal, 6 per cent gas, 1 per cent others). The non-fossil includes 11 per cent hydro and 33 per cent solar, wind, etc.
Nuclear share was 1.3 per cent. Way Ahead for India Though India began a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in June 2008, not much moved initially due to inter-ministerial frictions.
The new government in 2014 announced a slew of new measures to tackle climate change. A ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment’ of the country was carried out. Government initiatives to mitigate climate change included the National Water Mission, the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, the National Solar Mission, the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency, the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat, the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, and the Green India Mission.
These now got significant funding. India has 17 per cent of the world’s population but only 4 per cent of the world’s water. Climate change directly affects the availability of water.
India is trying to assist states in the Himalayan region with the implementation of actions selected for sustainable development. Solar power installed capacity has reached around 70.10 GW as of June 30, 2023.
The National Mission on Sustainable Habitat has a potential for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions amounting to 270 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2031. The Green India Mission launched in 2014 aims to protect, restore, and enhance India’s diminishing forest cover. As of 2021, the total forest cover in India was 80.
9 million hectares, which is 21.71 per cent of the total geographical area. The target is to increase by 5 million hectares (mha) and improve the quality of forest/tree cover on another 5 mha of forest/non-forest lands.
India’s ranking in the Climate Change Performance Index 2024 was seventh position, forward from eighth spot in CCPI 2023. Interestingly, due to the absence of countries in the first three spots, India effectively stands fourth in global climate performance. Also, in the per capita GHG category, the country is on track to meet a benchmark of well below 2°C.
India secured the tenth spot in climate policy. The very responsible India will meet 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable sources and increase non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by the end of 2030. India will decrease the total projected carbon emissions by one billion metric tonnes by 2030.
India will achieve a target of net zero emissions by the year 2070. The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.
They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views..
