Christmas without a COVID wave? Not so fast, the virus is rising again

COVID fragments in wastewater data at Burwood Beach in Newcastle have been rising for the past month.

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COVID cases have risen from "low to moderate" within a week, dampening hopes of the first Christmas/New Year period in four years without a wave of the virus. Login or signup to continue reading University of Newcastle virologist Nathan Bartlett said there had been "a bit of an uptick of COVID in recent weeks". "That's probably due to people socialising more, end-of-year parties and lots more interaction," said Professor Bartlett of Hunter Medical Research Institute .

"We often see a bit of a rise in respiratory symptoms in late November, early December." COVID fragments in wastewater data at Burwood Beach in Newcastle had been rising for the past month, but fell slightly in NSW Health's latest weekly respiratory report. Nonetheless, the report said COVID "continued to gradually increase over the last few weeks", with activity rising from "low to moderate".



A new COVID vaccine is now available at Hunter pharmacists that offer the jabs. Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approved the Pfizer booster, which targets the JN.1 sub-variant of Omicron.

Chelsea Felkai, of Whitebridge Pharmacy, said there were plenty of the vaccines in stock. "It's pretty widely available," Ms Felkai said. In documents submitted to the TGA, Pfizer stated that the new vaccine's safety and effectiveness was "inferred from data" from the initial vaccine's clinical trials.

"The duration of protection afforded by the vaccine is unknown as it is still being determined by ongoing clinical trials and observational studies," it stated. NSW Health data showed the XEC and KP.3 sub-variants were now dominant in NSW, but JN.

1 remained in circulation. Professor Bartlett said mutations to the spike protein "can give the virus an edge over earlier variants, helping it evade our immune response". "Scientists keep updating the COVID vaccines in an effort to keep up with these changes," he said.

"A vaccine that targets JN.1 should provide good protection against the Omicron sub-variants likely to be circulating in the coming months." A Cleveland Clinic 2023-24 study of the COVID mRNA monovalent vaccine over four months found it was 42 per cent effective against infection with the Omicron XBB.

1.5 sub-variant. After the JN.

1 variant became dominant, it was 19 per cent effective. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention research found this same COVID booster offered 54 per cent protection against infection at "a median of 52 days after vaccination". Professor Bartlett said there was a "measurable reduction" in immunity "within two to three months" after vaccination.

"The persistent reduction in immunity will slowly increase your risk. It's all about risk," he said. A 2023 systematic review in The Lancet found the immune system could protect against symptomatic illness for at least 10 months after a COVID infection.

The vaccines are now mainly recommended for older people and those at increased risk of severe COVID, but others can consider an annual booster. Federal data showed about 16 per cent of Hunter residents had been vaccinated in the past year. "The vaccines, as they stand, are good at preventing severe disease," Professor Bartlett said.

"The vaccines are not going to stop you getting infected and they're not having a big effect on virus transmission." A Washington University School of Medicine study, published in July, said the risk of long COVID "appears to decrease" after vaccination. Professor Bartlett said COVID was "reasonably mild for most of us".

"It looks like this virus is becoming like the common cold, but it's still capable of causing severe disease in vulnerable people," he said. He said COVID had not settled into an annual seasonal cycle. Health and medicine, science, research, nutrition.

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