5 days Ago By David Kenyon
In a matter of two weeks, Kirby Smart and his Georgia Bulldogs have become a season-defining nuisance. First, they lost. Georgia could've eliminated Ole Miss from College Football Playoff contention with a victory in Oxford last weekend.
Instead, the Dawgs fell in ugly fashion. And then in Week 12, a loss to Tennessee could've put UGA in a very improbable situation. You guessed it, that didn't happen.
As a result, the next edition of the College Football Playoff rankings is guaranteed to have controversy. The messy SEC picture is the main takeaway from the latest slate of games, along with absolute certainty in the AAC race and increased clarity in several other leagues. Hey, drama is good! When the final weekend of the regular season is meaningful, you won't catch me complaining.
But if you're a fan of Georgia Southern or Louisiana, you were probably hoping to avoid that outlook. Unfortunately for those programs, losses on Saturday have moved the Sun Belt standings into disorder. Georgia Southern shared the East Division lead with Marshall but owned the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Now, the Eagles are a game behind after a surprising loss to Troy. As a result, they need Old Dominion or James Madison to beat Marshall over the next two weeks. Louisiana, meanwhile, squandered a chance to seal the West Division in a home setback to South Alabama.
What could've been a straightforward finish in the Sun Belt has turned to a newfound layer of drama. In the latest CFP rankings, Army (24th) and Tulane (25th) rounded out the poll. Boise State checked in 12th, so it's unreasonable to believe the AAC champion can ascend that far.
Army could bolster its resume with a win over Notre Dame, yes, but 12 spots is a massive gap to make up. So, in short, Boise State is the front-runner to secure the Group of Five's slot in the College Football Playoff. But if the Broncos fall, look directly to the American.
Though two weeks remain in the regular season, Saturday locked in the AAC's championship matchup. Tulane cruised past Navy, surrendering only 113 yards in a 35-0 victory and securing a place in the title game opposite a currently unbeaten Army squad. Since both programs hold a 7-0 record in league play, the host of the contest will be determined in the closing weeks.
And there may be massive stakes on the line. One stunning result made the ACC picture very clear: Two of Clemson, Miami and SMU will be in the championship game. Louisville went to Stanford, which entered with a 2-7 record on a five-game losing skid.
Since a victory at Syracuse in September, the Cardinal hadn't won—and typically lost handily in—any other ACC game. In true college football fashion, of course, that struggling Stanford team toppled a 6-3 Louisville squad 38-35. Clemson edged Pitt and wrapped up the season 7-1 in ACC action, while SMU (6-0) and Miami (5-1) have only two games remaining.
Everyone else in the conference now has at least three losses, so there's not even a convoluted sequence of tiebreakers to consider, either. SMU and Miami both currently have tiebreaker edges on Clemson, so that's the expected matchup. But if Miami loses once, it'll presumably be SMU and Clemson in the title game.
No more, and no less. In the hypothetical situation of BYU finishing 12-0 but losing in the conference title game, the league could've had multiple schools going to the College Football Playoff. I would've called that a likely result.
That dream vanished, though, as Kansas made a last-minute defensive stand in a 17-13 upset to blemish BYU's unbeaten record. BYU remains in position to reach the Big 12 Championship Game, sharing the conference lead with Colorado. Win twice, and the Cougars can still have a shot at securing the league's automatic Playoff bid.
However, it would be unwise to believe BYU can squeeze into the CFP as a two-loss team. In comparison to Big Ten and SEC programs, the resume won't be viewed favorably. You don't have to like that sentence, but the selection committee's historical tendencies are clear.
At least in 2024, the Big 12's CFP hopes are championship or bust. One complicated trend has emerged in recent weeks: a well-paid coach with a healthy buyout is under pressure. After the early concerns around Florida's Billy Napier, it was Oklahoma's Brent Venables.
Then, it was USC's Lincoln Riley. Now, it's LSU's Brian Kelly—because of Napier and his Florida team. The most frustrating part for LSU is that, despite its recent ugly losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, still had a path to the SEC Championship Game.
As long as South Carolina beat Missouri—which happened—LSU could've found itself on the right side of an enormous tiebreaker. The 27-16 loss to Florida obliterated that lingering hope. Kelly, understandably, is now facing increased scrutiny after losing to a mediocre UF roster.
LSU hoped to compete nationally but is just 6-4 with Vanderbilt and Oklahoma still to play. Because his buyout is $60.8 million, Kelly is not realistically on a might-get-fired hot seat.
This offseason, however, there will be plenty of angst in and around Baton Rouge. Welcome to the party, Ducks. I can't extend a formal invitation—though if CFP executives are listening, hi, I would join the clique—but Oregon has done enough to claim a spot in the inaugural 12-team Playoff.
After clipping Wisconsin 16-13, the Ducks are the lone 11-0 team in the country. Nobody else but Army or Indiana could join the club, and those programs take on Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively, next Saturday. In a week's time, Oregon may be the final unbeaten team.
More importantly, the Ducks' resume is solid. To date, they own victories over Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois on the resume. That's not incredible , by any means, but it's not an underwhelming set of wins in comparison to other contenders.
Plus, short of a complicated and unlikely set of results, the Ducks are headed to the Big Ten Championship Game. I find it rather improbable the conference's runner-up won't be Playoff-bound this season. One way or another, Oregon is going to have a shot at a national title.
Heading into Saturday's slate, the placement of SEC teams in the College Football Playoff rankings made sense. Texas (third) and Tennessee (seventh) held one-loss records, and Texas has been a more consistent team. All good.
Alabama (10th), Ole Miss (11th) and Georgia (12th) checked in logically, given Bama's resume included an unmatched four Top 25 victories—one of which was Georgia, which Ole Miss recently defeated. All good! So, naturally, UGA beat Tennessee. Now what? Head-to-head results are simply a piece of the conversation; they can no longer be used as the simplest factor.
Where do you put Tennessee, which beat Alabama but fell to UGA? Ole Miss routed Arkansas but fell to Kentucky, while Tennessee lost at Arkansas but toppled UK. Based on resumes, don't be surprised if Tennessee—the lone member of the quartet with a single Top 25 victory—finds itself on the wrong side of the playoff bubble when the updated order is unveiled. You might not agree, and that's exactly the point.
I can work out several different arguments within the SEC. But there are four other automatic bids, three Big Ten programs and Notre Dame currently on track for a Playoff bid. There's only space for three non-champions from the SEC in the current 12-team field.
One of these two-loss SEC squads will not be happy on Tuesday night..
