2 weeks Ago By David Kenyon
The mayhem is only beginning. After a wild slate to begin November, college football had another day of massive upsets in Week 11. Miami is no longer undefeated after an exasperating loss to an unranked conference foe.
Georgia dropped a second game—a result that also renewed Ole Miss' hopes of making the College Football Playoff. And then, of course, there was Alabama's resounding victory over rival LSU in Death Valley . As you'd expect, the takeaways from Week 11 have a heavy CFP emphasis.
Although no team has undeniably locked in a playoff spot, a handful of programs just exited the conversation this weekend. We can't formally say it, but Army probably just punched its ticket to the AAC Championship Game. After missing last weekend's win over Air Force, quarterback Bryson Daily returned to lead the Black Knights in a critical game.
He rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns in a vital 14-3 win at North Texas. In short: Army is now a commanding 7-0 in conference play. Elsewhere within the league, Tulane (6-0 in AAC) and Navy (5-1) are the only others without multiple losses.
Those programs are slated to meet in Week 12. So, if Tulane wins as favored, Navy—like preseason AAC favorite Memphis—cannot end better than 6-2 in conference games. And that sends Army to the AAC championship.
No matter what happens next weekend, Army could care of that itself, sure. That opportunity would not happen until Nov. 30 against UTSA, though; Army is idle in Week 12 before playing Notre Dame.
We are dangerously close to saying Army has a guaranteed shot at making the College Football Playoff. What a sentence. That's not an exaggeration, either.
Yes, the 1945 Indiana team finished 9-0-1, but it's not controversial to say college football is a bit more competitive than 80 years ago. The program has never experienced a season like this one. Indiana built a 17-3 halftime lead on Michigan and ultimately hung on late to secure a 20-15 triumph.
With the victory, the Hoosiers have double-digit wins in a season for the first time in school history. And you may recall this is Curt Cignetti's first year as their head coach. Seriously, what a season.
Indiana has an open weekend on the horizon. After that, the Hoosiers travel to Ohio State for a showdown that will presumably decide which team advances to the Big Ten Championship Game—likely opposite Oregon. This is the most important two-week stretch in IU football.
Ever. It felt inevitable. For more than a month, Miami has played with fire.
The defense has been somewhere between disappointing and straight-up bad, struggling with motions and misdirection plays while missing so many tackles in hard-fought victories over Virginia Tech, Cal, Louisville and Duke. The offense had consistently bailed out the 'Canes, though. Heisman Trophy front-runner Cam Ward conjured up double-digit comebacks like they were screen passes.
But on Saturday, that wasn't enough. Georgia Tech's defense played a solid game, yet the real story was the offense. Miami looked totally unprepared to stop the Jackets' rushing attack—even as a shoulder injury basically rendered Haynes King useless as a passer—and blew multiple coverages on critical third-and-longs when Aaron Philo entered.
GT's coaching staff deserve a golf clap for the game plan. Simultaneously, the 'Canes imploded on their own. Despite the loss, Miami still controls its path to the ACC Championship Game, but those recent warning signs on defense are officially a potential season-crushing weakness for the Hurricanes.
Last weekend, Lincoln Riley's increasing problems at USC took an inglorious place in the spotlight. Seven days later, that attention has shifted to his former program. Brent Venables-led Oklahoma, in short, is reeling.
During the school's SEC debut, the Sooners have simply been a disaster on offense. That season-long nightmare continued with a jaw-dropping loss to Missouri. In the final minute of a 23-23 game, embattled quarterback Jackson Arnold lost a fumble that Mizzou scooped up and returned for a touchdown.
What had been a 23-16 edge for OU disappeared in the final two minutes, and the Sooners fell to a dismal 5-5. The worst part is the schedule doesn't get easier; OU closes the season home to Alabama and at LSU. Unless the Sooners pull off an upset, the program's 25-year bowl streak will be nothing but history.
Venables, like Riley, has a buyout ( $44.8 million ) that probably keeps him in town until the 2024 campaign. But there will be unrest in Norman this offseason.
Between a Georgia loss and an emphatic win at LSU, you could hardly have drawn up a better weekend for Alabama. Jalen Milroe again destroyed the heart of the Tigers' defense—and the hearts of their fans. He rushed for 155 yards and four touchdowns in last season's 42-28 victory over LSU and one-upped himself with 185 yards and another four scores in Saturday's 42-13 rout.
More on LSU in a second. This is Bama's moment. It's been a strange year for the Crimson Tide.
They've notched a thrilling win against Georgia, stunningly lost at Vanderbilt, fallen to rival Tennessee and now destroyed Missouri and LSU in consecutive weeks. The roller coaster of emotions has whipped Bama around, but Kalen DeBoer's first team in Tuscaloosa has been resilient. When the next CFP rankings come out, the Tide should be ranked ahead of Georgia.
That head-to-head victory is looming large in a great way for Alabama—and, in theory, will be especially impactful if both programs finish 10-2 and don't reach the SEC title game. Given all of the upsets in the last two weeks, be careful to declare something "impossible" when it's mathematically doable. The first-ever expanded College Football Playoff format brings some unknowns, too.
But we are definitely in "improbable" territory for several teams. Iowa State fell to Kansas and Colorado beat Texas Tech. Even if Colorado was to get upset, that victory over Texas Tech gives it a common-opponent edge on Iowa State.
In a matter of eight days, Iowa State has cratered from a CFP contender to a 10-win hopeful at best. Hey, that would set a program record. But the playoff dream is done.
Pitt endured a similar fate, dropping a second straight game in a loss to Virginia. After quarterback Eli Holstein left with an injury, the Panthers could not recover. They'll now need a minor miracle to make the ACC Championship Game and might lose to Clemson in Week 12 anyway.
LSU, meanwhile, dipped to 6-3 in a blowout to Alabama. Although the Tigers' win over Ole Miss is still an excellent bullet point, three losses—including one to lackluster USC—makes the resume a sketchy one. Missing the CFP is not necessary a failure, and none of these outcomes are a surprise based on preseason expectations.
It is, nevertheless, a landmark moment when this reality is clear. That last section would have included Ole Miss had the Rebels lost to Georgia and dropped to a 7-3 record. What would've been their marquee win? Like, maybe South Carolina? Instead, the Rebels may control their path to the playoff.
Ole Miss yielded just 245 yards in a 28-10 trouncing of UGA and impressively maneuvered past Jaxson Dart's injury scare. Austin Simmons led a key touchdown drive in the first quarter before Dart returned and helped the Rebels pick up their most valuable win of the year. In the next CFP rankings, Ole Miss might rise significantly.
I find it unlikely Georgia will tumble out of the Top 12, but how could the committee rank Ole Miss behind UGA after that game? So, I cannot say with absolute confidence that Ole Miss controls its path. That certainly looks likely, though..
