5 days Ago By Zachary D. Rymer
You could hear a pin drop on MLB's actual free-agent and trade markets right now, but there are still plenty of whispers to keep the rumor mill going. The question, as always, is what to make of them. This is where it's useful to get out the ol' "Buy or Sell" board and play a quick game.
So, that is what we're going to do with the juiciest MLB rumors from the last week. We really are talking about rumors , which rules out speculation and reports straight from the source. It's also important to note that what's being bought or sold is the implied outcome, be it a future signing or trade or a deal that ultimately won't be made.
In any case, let's start with four trade rumors and end with four free-agent rumors. Source: Jeff Passan of ESPN It's only been a couple of weeks since Cody Bellinger exercised his $27.5 million player option for 2025, but Passan reports that the 2019 NL MVP is "available" on the trade market.
The Case for Buy Though the Chicago Cubs did want Bellinger back last winter, it was almost in a begrudging sort of way . He then took a step back in 2024, with his OPS dropping 130 points from '23. With Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Michael Busch at first base, Bellinger is blocked from his two best positions.
The Cubs otherwise need to diversify their offense, which they could accomplish if they moved Bellinger and reinvested the savings in another hitter. Like, for example, Pete Alonso. He's oft been mentioned as a fit for the Cubs, and he and his 40-homer power would fit right in at DH if Bellinger was out of Seiya Suzuki's way in right field.
The Case for Sell Then again, the Cubs don't need to move Bellinger before they can spend. Their projected 2025 payroll is about $45 million short of what they spent in 2024. And per numbers presented by Travis Sawchik of The Score, ownership can probably afford bigger payrolls than the club typically carries.
There's also the question of how much trade value Bellinger even has. Baseball Trade Values puts his surplus value relative to what he's owed at minus-$8.7 million, meaning the Cubs would likely need to eat money to move him.
If the idea is to save money, that would at least partially defeat the purpose. Verdict: Sell Source: Jim Bowden of The Athletic That Garrett Crochet is a trade candidate is obvious, and executives that Bowden has spoken to have mentioned the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers as the lefty's "most likely landing spots." The Case for Buy As for what Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz might ask of those three teams, this report from ESPN's Buster Olney is illuminating: "Getz wants a package of prospects constructed around at least one high-ceiling youngster to anchor the deal.
Chicago's preference is for that main piece to be a position player, but sources say that depending on the depth and quality of the prospects offered, it would consider taking a pitcher as the centerpiece." The Red Sox and Orioles can accommodate this. Between them, they have eight hitting prospects in the latest top 100 from B/R's Joel Reuter .
Each also has potentially expendable major leaguers, such as Triston Casas for Boston and Jordan Westburg for Baltimore. The Dodgers aren't as well off in this regard, but they could conceivably center a deal around center fielder Andy Pages or top prospects Josue De Paula or Dalton Rushing. The Case for Sell Olney also mentions the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets as fits for Crochet, so this should not be mistaken for a three-horse race.
However, at least three of those five teams don't need a No. 1-type starter like Crochet. The Dodgers arguably don't either, but the Red Sox and Orioles absolutely do.
Since the Red Sox have the resources to sign a top starter—they're reportedly talking to Blake Snell or Max Fried—the Orioles may be the better bet to make a move for Crochet. But either way, that initial list of three favorites ultimately sounds reasonable. Verdict: Buy Source: Jim Bowden of The Athletic According to Bowden, one National League GM believes the Toronto Blue Jays will decide to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
once "they realize they have little chance of extending him." The Case for Buy The first question is what Toronto could pay to extend Guerrero. To this end, comments by ESPN's Jeff Passan from August point at a nine-figure sum that starts with a three: This is a large sum for any player, much less a right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first baseman.
Yet it is believable, as Guerrero is only 25 and he just topped 30 home runs and 6 rWAR for the second time in four seasons. Meanwhile, he is slated to hit free agency after 2025. And with the Blue Jays coming off a last-place finish, trading him in the event that they fail to extend him would arguably be a strong case study in logical thinking.
The Case for Sell To be fair, Bowden's report notes that the Blue Jays haven't given any indication that they want to trade Guerrero. The club indeed drew a firm line on its controllable players when it sold off assets at the trade deadline. That line would seem to still be in place, as Toronto GM Ross Atkins said it would be " an easy no " if teams called about shortstop Bo Bichette.
If anything, the Blue Jays seem desperate to get back to winning in 2025. So much so, in fact, that they've positioned themselves as a threat to sign Juan Soto from the Yankees. Even if they can't get Soto, the indication that they have that much money for a player would imply that it isn't a shortage of resources keeping them from extending Guerrero.
Verdict: Sell Sources: Joel Sherman of the New York Post , Jon Morosi of MLB Network Sherman pitched the idea of the Minnesota Twins trading Carlos Correa, and Morosi characterized it as "more likely" than the Arizona Diamondbacks trading ace Zac Gallen. The Case for Buy These are interesting times for the Twins. The team went up for sale in October.
It was around then that Thad Levine stepped down as GM. Dave St. Peter has since done the same as CEO.
Meanwhile, the franchise is among a growing inventory of teams that will have their games broadcast by MLB going forward. The vibes are that of an organization in transition, which makes one wonder if the roster could also undergo a transition. And if so, there is sense in trading Correa.
At 30, he's too old to serve as a long-term building block. And if the Twins can trade him, they stand to save at least $133.3 million on his remaining contract.
The Case for Sell Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey doesn't sound like he wants to trade Correa. Or any other high-priced players, for that matter. "They're also really good and key members of where our team is," he said last week, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
It's probably best not to take this as a promise, but there are other forces at work against a potential Correa trade. One of them concerns how he has full no-trade protection and how he's made no secret of his love for Minnesota. There's also an obligatory question about timing.
For while Correa did have a .905 OPS this season, it was also the second year in a row that he battled plantar fasciitis . And this time, it limited him to 86 games.
Verdict: Sell Source: Jim Bowden of The Athletic There's been chatter about the Dodgers being a shoo-in to sign Roki Sasaki once he's posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines. But Bowden thinks otherwise, saying it's actually "unlikely" that the 23-year-old will end up in Dodger Blue. The Case for Buy Within that same article, Bowden mentions that Sasaki won't sign until the next window for amateur signings opens on January 15, 2025.
If so, the Dodgers will be disadvantaged. Their $5.1 million bonus pool for the 2025 window is tied with the San Francisco Giants for the lowest among MLB's 30 teams.
Bowden otherwise mentions how disadvantaged Sasaki would be in chasing endorsements if he was on the same team as fellow Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The sheer media attention could also be an issue for the young righty. If anything, the Padres are the NL West team with the best shot at signing Sasaki.
Already in their rotation is Yu Darvish, with whom Sasaki is close. And running the front office is A.J.
Preller, who played a notable part in recruiting Darvish back in 2012. The Case for Sell Bowden's points about endorsements and media attention aren't exactly foolproof, but they're plausible enough to be taken seriously. There are also other reasons to suspect that Sasaki won't be a Dodger.
For one, this field is huge. Every single one of MLB's 30 teams should be in on Sasaki, and 28 can offer him a bigger bonus than the Dodgers. Some can offer as much as $2.
4 million more. For two, a young pitcher like Sasaki should be wary of signing with the Dodgers. Winning the World Series can paper over a lot of problems, but it should not be forgotten that this year exposed the organization as being more hazardous than most for pitchers.
Verdict: Buy Source: Jon Heyman of the New York Post Though Heyman undercuts Bowden by referring to the Dodgers as the "heavy favorite" for Sasaki, he writes that the club is also "looking into" Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried. The Case for Buy The between-the-lines reading is that, come Heck or High Water, the Dodgers are determined to sign a No. 1 starter.
They don't necessarily need to, given that they stand to begin 2025 with healthy versions of Ohtani, Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. But the Dodgers learned this year that the adage about there being no such thing as too much pitching is still true. Besides, it's not like they can't afford those three guys.
Though B/R's Tim Kelly projects Burnes ($224 million), Snell ($158 million) and Fried ($168 million) to clear nine figures, the Dodgers are indeed at the height of their financial dominance. They just won the World Series, and there's a $50 million gap between what they spent in 2024 and what they project to spend in 2025. They could sign Burnes, Snell or Fried and still have plenty left over for other needs.
The Case for Sell Even if the Dodgers decide they must have one of these guys, the competition isn't going to make way and let them have at it. As noted earlier, the Red Sox are in on Snell and Fried, who has also been tied to Baltimore by Heyman . The Yankees and Blue Jays are fits for Burnes, according to Passan .
And even if he has yet to be solidly linked to them, the Mets are a natural suitor for Burnes as well. Still, probably the only thing that could keep the Dodgers from completing a pursuit of Burnes, Snell or Fried is if their wish of landing Sasaki is granted. If that doesn't happen, it would be hard to imagine them simply walking away from other No.
1 options. Verdict: Buy Source: Buster Olney of ESPN This one is blurring the line between rumor and speculation, but Olney heard from a rival evaluator who predicted that Alex Bregman will sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Case for Buy Well, the Phillies do want to shake things up.
Passan used this exact phrasing in describing the team's approach to the offseason, and even president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has openly spoken about being " open-minded " as to how to go about it. Among the Phillies' options is a trade of Alec Bohm, which would open third base for Bregman. The 30-year-old Bregman is generally good for 25 home runs and above-average defense.
Bohm can claim neither of these things, nor can he claim that he's always been strong in the spotlight that comes with playing in Philadelphia. The Case for Sell Though Phillies owner John Middleton expects payroll will go up in 2025, the catch is that it is already projected to do so. Trading Bohm would only clear a projected $8.
1 million salary, whereas signing Bregman is likely to cost upwards of $25 million per year. As such, there's no scenario in which the Phillies add Bregman and avoid shattering their Opening Day payroll record of $243 million . Mind you, this doesn't mean they can't do it.
But one does wonder if they'll be as motivated as other potential suitors for Bregman. The Houston Astros are definitely one, and he's a natural fit for the Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals. All five have substantially more payroll flexibility than the Phillies.
Verdict: Sell Source: Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via B/R Live ) Soto has had meetings with the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mets, and the Yankees are next. More interesting, though, is what might happen if the Yankees fail to re-sign him. Per Heyman, the Yankees could look to sign some combination of Alonso, Bregman, Willy Adames and Anthony Santander.
They could also "look more seriously" at Burnes, Snell and Fried. The Case for Buy For starters, the notion that the Yankees will be forced to move on from Soto is realistic. They can afford him, but so can Boston and Toronto.
And given the sheer vastness of owner Steve Cohen's wealth, there's little question that the Mets are the best bet to make Soto an offer that he and agent Scott Boras can't refuse. As contingency plans go, however, what the Yankees have is both ample and viable. Even if you put Soto's likely contract at just $600 million, that kind of money would still cover Kelly's projected deals for Alonso ($135 million), Bregman ($130 million), Adames ($180 million) and Santander ($101 million).
If the Yankees were to pick just two or three of them, there would be plenty left for Burnes, Snell or Fried. Arguably, replacing Soto in the aggregate is the best thing the Yankees can do right now . They couldn't win the World Series with him, after all, so running it back would be tantamount to doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
The Case for Sell Alternatively, who's to say the Yankees can't re-sign Soto and then reshape the team around him and Aaron Judge? They could, for example, go all-in on trading for Crochet and also sign second-tier free agents. Christian Walker would be an obvious fit at first base. They could otherwise buy low on Max Kepler or Michael Conforto for their outfield.
Like with Sasaki and the Dodgers, however, the basic reality here is that the Yankees simply can't count on having Soto back. The competition is too stiff, and they frankly have too many outstanding needs to go all-in on one guy. Verdict: Buy Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference , FanGraphs and Baseball Savant .
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