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ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos will clinch a playoff spot with one week remaining in the regular season if they defeat the Cincinnati Bengals on the road Saturday. The victory, if it happens, would come nine years to the day after the Broncos clinched their last postseason appearance .
.. with a win against the Bengals.
Advertisement As tidy as that bit of symmetry would be, it alone won’t deliver the long-awaited postseason berth for the Broncos. They may not need to play a perfect game, head coach Sean Payton noted this week, but it will need to be something close. Here are five things the Broncos must do to get it done.
Early down run success is vital The Broncos faced a fourth-and-2 on their opening drive of the third quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16, and quarterback Bo Nix hit wide receiver Courtland Sutton for 5 yards and what appeared to be a huge, momentum-swinging play. But on the next play, from the Chargers’ 30-yard line, running back Audric Estimé was tackled for a 1-yard loss. Two plays later, the Broncos were forced to settle for Wil Lutz’s 43-yard field goal.
Later, the Broncos led the Chargers 24-19 with three minutes left in the third quarter and faced a first-and-10 at their 30-yard line. Nix handed the ball to running back Blake Watson, who was tackled for a 1-yard loss. The Broncos punted three plays later and the Chargers drove for a go-ahead touchdown.
The Broncos had success during the first half running the ball against the Chargers. It helped them stay out of second- and third-and-longs and fueled three straight touchdown drives to begin the game. Thursday's #DENvsCIN injury report: 📰 » https://t.
co/xCtvIOt8Nr pic.twitter.com/OnhksoSZGw — Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 26, 2024 But the negative runs in the third quarter — and the drives that fizzled out afterward — illustrated Denver’s issues when it can’t generate early down rushing success.
It will be a pivotal component in Saturday’s game. Nix can’t be asked to bail the Broncos out of third-and-long situations all day, particularly if the expected rain at Paycor Stadium begins to complicate the passing game. Advertisement The Broncos have had a serviceable third-down offense when it stays on schedule.
Nix’s quick release, Marvin Mims’ ability to exert pressure in motion and out of the backfield and the sure hands of Sutton and rookie Devaughn Vele are among the traits Payton has leaned on as a play caller in those situations. But Denver continuously can’t leave between 6 and 10 yards on third down. The Broncos convert only 30.
1 percent of chances in that range, which ranks 25th in the league. The Bengals give up 4.8 yards per rush on first down, which ranks 19th in the league.
They have only 46 run stops — tackles for zero or negative yards — on first- and second-down plays this season, fewer than all but five teams. The Broncos should have the opportunity to remain on schedule and they will need to seize it. They learned the hard way that even one or two ill-timed, inefficient runs can swing a tight game.
Win the superstar battle outside The first matchup between Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II came in 2021 when they were both rookies. Chase and the Bengals won a hard-fought game 15-10, a victory that kick-started their run to the AFC championship. Surtain, meanwhile, won the individual battle, helping limit Chase to one catch (on four targets) for 3 yards.
It remains one of only four games for Chase in which he caught fewer than three passes and represents his only single-digit output in 60 career games. Count Payton among those looking forward to seeing how Round 2 unfolds between the two stars. “You’ve got the best in the game, and I haven’t even told you what position,” Payton said.
“ How often does that really happen? Both of those guys, man, they’re something. I know that both teams are glad they have them.” Ja’Marr Chase vs Pat Surtain II this week 🍿 Who wins this matchup? pic.
twitter.com/rb4kTz3M6Z — PFF (@PFF) December 24, 2024 It is never as easy for the Broncos as having Surtain shadow the other team’s top receiver. It’s a difficult task without giving a clear indication of what coverage scheme the defense is using.
But Payton hinted after the Broncos were torched by Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in Week 13 — the bulk of the damage coming against non-Surtain defenders — that they needed to increase the volume of plays in which Surtain could be paired with the other team’s top weapon. A career-high 36.3 percent of Chase’s targets are coming out of the slot this season, according to TruMedia, so Denver will need to be creative in how it covers Chase with Surtain.
Even then, the idea that Denver’s defense can fully shut down a wide receiver who has 793 yards and nine touchdowns in his last six games is optimistic, if not unrealistic. Advertisement Denver must avoid the kind of game where Chase runs wild, and part of that comes down to creating more of the matchup everyone wants to see. “He’s gifted,” Surtain said of Chase, offering a takes-one-to-know-one assessment.
“One thing he does, a lot of his yards come after the catch. He’s strong after the catch. He’s got very good hands, solid hands.
I think the main thing is making sure what happens in the second act and rally to the ball with him.” GO DEEPER Broncos' leaky pass defense could jeopardize playoff hopes as Joe Burrow looms Get back to aggressive defensive approach One statistic that helps explain the impact of cornerback Riley Moss’ absence is Denver’s blitz rate. The Broncos brought an extra rusher 26.
1 percent of the time between Weeks 1 and 12, according to TruMedia, the highest rate in the league. That figure has dropped to 18 percent in the past two games, which ranks 13th. The dip in called blitzes isn’t due to Moss’ injury alone, but it plays a role.
The Broncos have played more zone without their standout starting cornerback, limiting the opportunities to bring extra rushers. Moss will make his return Saturday after missing a month with the MCL injury he suffered in his knee Nov. 24 in Las Vegas.
His presence as a capable press coverage player should open up more doors for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to unfurl some of the pressure looks that have made Denver one of the league’s most harassing defenses at points this season. “He’ll be ready to go,” Payton said of Moss. “He’s got an awfully competitive juice.
I would say you definitely felt his absence. Not just physically as a player, but also his presence.” Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level, a master at navigating pressure when it arrives in the pocket.
But he’s also been sacked 37 times in 15 games, on pace to be the second-highest total of his career. He’s already had more fumbles (10) and fumbles lost (five) than in any of his previous four seasons. In a tight game with wet conditions and big stakes, a well-timed blitz that forces a turnover could be the difference.
Joseph should have more opportunities to dial up that perfect call Saturday thanks to Moss’ return. Can he take advantage at the right time? Neutralize Trey Hendrickson and navigate the rush Payton doesn’t need to look at the league-leading 13 1/2 sacks next to Trey Hendrickson’s name to know the impact the Bengals defensive end can have on a game. Hendrickson was part of Payton’s star-studded 2017 draft class that also included running back Alvin Kamara, cornerback Marshon Lattimore, offensive lineman Ryan Ramczyk, safety Marcus Williams and linebacker Alex Anzalone.
Advertisement “That’s a good class and all of those guys are playing at a high level,” Payton said. “(Hendrickson is) someone who can bend, like I said. You’re in for a full day’s work.
That’s how he plays. You don’t get to where he’s at (without consistency). It’s not just this year for him.
He’s been real consistent.” The Broncos have done a solid job this season limiting the impact of opposing star pass rushers. They kept Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett off the board in back-to-back wins against the Raiders (Week 12) and Browns (Week 13), for example.
The 22 sacks Nix has absorbed this season are on pace to be the fewest for a Broncos quarterback who started at least 15 games since Peyton Manning was dropped only 17 times during his 16 starts in 2014. Nix has produced five games this season in which he hasn’t thrown an interception or taken a sack. Unsurprisingly, the Broncos are 5-0 in those games.
The Broncos don’t need to reproduce that particular statistic, but finding ways to mitigate Hendrickson’s impact should be a significant priority. The Bengals rank 24th in pressure rate at 24.1 percent, according to TruMedia.
No other player besides their top pass rusher has more than four sacks or a 10 percent pressure rate this season. Nix should have opportunities to make plays from the pocket, so long as the Broncos prevent Hendrickson from continuously denting it. GO DEEPER Bo Nix owns best Broncos rookie QB season, but he's still chasing '83 John Elway Match the urgency The Bengals’ playoff picture is clear.
Lose at home Saturday and they will be eliminated from postseason contention. That will undoubtedly create a desperate approach from a team that has started to find its footing while winning three straight games. The Broncos, playing in a rowdy — and likely rainy — environment, must match that intensity.
The sun would still come up for Denver with a loss in Ohio. The Broncos would still have a win-and-in scenario in Week 18 at home against a Chiefs team that could be resting starters after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with Wednesday’s win in Pittsburgh.
The Broncos have said all the right things this week about not squandering another opportunity after letting their first clinching chance evaporate in Los Angeles six days before Christmas. But Saturday will tell whether they can match the urgency and focus of an opponent playing for its playoff life. “All of the work that we’ve put in leading to this point in the season, how much does this mean to you?” Sutton said this week.
“I know for a fact, listening to the guys and being around the guys at practice and in the locker room, it means something to the guys. I know they will be prepared. We are going to go out there and show up how we need to show up.
We didn’t do it last week, and that is on and gone. I know this team and this locker room very well. Guys are going to show up.
” (Top photo of Trey Hendrickson and Garrett Bolles: Cooper Neill / Getty Images).
