2 weeks Ago By Josephine Liu
The National Weather Service in Honolulu predicts a period of moisture increase and atmospheric destabilization for the archipelago. According to an update provided by the NWS on their website, the blend of GFS and ECMWF models suggests showers are on the rise, with potentially heavy downpours hitting windward slopes while leeward areas could see spotty afternoon showers persisting until Sunday.Weather patterns will see a shift as high pressure northeast of the state weakens, while winds are expected to veer east to southeast.
Showers, influenced by an upper-level low just north of the islands, should increase in frequency and intensity. "An upper level low just north of the islands, combined with the upper level trough associated with the surface low west of the islands, will provide instability over the coming days." With current moisture already at around an inch, projections anticipate a rise to between 1.
3 and 1.5 inches of precipitable water, as per the National Weather Service.The forecast remains consistent with previous statements, highlighting the lack of need for a Flood Watch at this time, yet acknowledges the potential for conditions to evolve, therefore, the situation warrants continuous monitoring.
Over the weekend, the greatest chance for thunderstorms remains north of the coastal waters, though an isolated rumble could make its presence known within the region.For aviation-related concerns, light to moderate trade winds will persistently weaken, shifting to an east-southeast direction: "Light to moderate trade winds will continue to weaken through the remainder of today and shift out of the east- southeast." This creates a fertile ground for scattered showers that could spark brief aviation alerts or restrictions, particularly in heavier showers with reduced ceilings and visibility, as reported by the National Weather Services.
The marine forecast is also adjusting to the changing weather patterns. Today, moderate trade winds are in place, but a low-pressure system over western Hawaii will shift the winds. The NWS expects the low to weaken by Sunday, bringing back the usual easterly winds by Tuesday night, with stronger trade winds returning after mid-week.
The High Surf Advisory has been canceled as surf heights have dropped, but surfers can still expect consistent waves throughout the week.In terms of advisories, a Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 AM HST Sunday specifically for Big Island Summits, as shared by the Honolulu Forecast Office. The changing weather patterns and wind dynamics indicate a complex, evolving system over the Hawaiian Islands, with the potential for increased precipitation and shifting wind directions in the days to come.
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