Back to 2008: Impossible Promises and the Takeoff of Political Careers

No matter how much social tension accumulates, the housing problem won't be solved with demonstrations. The solution only lies in a drastic increase in supply and, if possible, in controlling demand. The idea that "speculators" have hijacked the market is false for the simple reason that most of the supply is in the hands of individuals.

In other words, there is no one with enough market power to manipulate the price.However, the fact that the real estate problem has no short-term solution for citizens doesn't mean it has no solution for aspiring politicians. In fact, this is the best time for new left-wing figures to emerge.



The context is perfect: capitalizing on social discontent through major demands. We have a very clear precedent with the 2008 mortgage crisis, the 15M movement, and Ada Colau.Rise and Fall of the Superstars of ProtestIn 2008, the problem had a real estate disguise, but the cause was very different.

Credit facilities inflated a real estate bubble of mortgages, that is, of buying and selling. With the burst of the bubble, prices fell to their real value, in harmony with a contraction in employment and the general economy. This left many people without jobs and paying for an asset (mortgage) that was overvalued.

Image of the 15M in Madrid's Plaza del Sol | Europa PressIn this context, a climate of discontent was created that the left effectively capitalized on. Everyone will remember the era of the 15M movement, the PAH, Ada Colau, and the impossible promises. Many will also remember that it was the golden age of Colau and Podemos, to the point that Colau became the mayor of Barcelona.

From here, a process of rise and fall of these political options followed, which continues to this day.Meanwhile, a second version of the real estate crisis was brewing, which is the one we are in now, in the form of rentals. While the careers of figures like Colau were taking off, the current real estate situation was being shaped.

That is, a suffocation of supply that now has no immediate solution.If in 2008 there was a unique and differentiated rhetoric, now there is too. Almost every day we hear expressions like "large holders," "speculators," "vulture funds," "hijacked park," "tourist apartments," etc.

Similarly, extraordinary measures are not lacking: expropriating homes, prohibiting certain uses (rentism in any of its forms), lifetime contracts by law, or rent strikes:The logic of the current demands suggests that the market isn't strained, but poorly distributed. Thus, the solution would involve a gigantic interventionist deployment by political power. In other words, the environment that allows partisan speeches, confrontation, and personalistic leaderships to inflate.

First Tensions in the MovementCompared to 2008, the names and characters change, but the discourse remains. Now the protagonists are the housing unions, which gather the clamor and protest speeches. In the case of Catalonia, the housing unions are divided into two: those of radical-socialist inspiration, like the Socialist Housing Union, and those of Comuns-style inspiration, like the Tenants' Union.

The cotton doesn't lie: when the first divisions within the left appear it's because the problem was always political. Just yesterday it was news that from the socialist sector they were already hinting that "the unions won't be the springboard for any new Ada Colau." The reference goes directly to Carme Arcazaro, spokesperson for the Tenants' Union, whom many already call "the next Ada Colau.

"Indeed, the parallel with Colau's career is clear. Someone from the world of activism who gains a lot of visibility thanks to a social problem. At the same time, Arcarazo is already starting to have enough strength to challenge the Govern, the PSOE, and La Caixa:As is evident, the strength of this discourse can only be explained by mobilization and publicity interests.

As happened in 2008, many of the promises now being made are unrealizable for one reason or another. From violating community law (limiting residence permits) to lacking majorities for the scope of certain measures, and including analysis errors.A Misguided AnalysisAmong the diagnostic errors are, for example, that the famous "vulture funds" control the market, but the truth is they only have 3.

5% of the stock. It is also forgotten that many "empty apartments" are in areas without demand (second homes from the real estate boom). Undoubtedly, the most notable thing is that it is forgotten that the shortage of supply is linked to demographic growth derived from immigration.

With deep realism, the BdE's 2023 Economic Report stated that "the demographic growth experienced since 2016 is an essential factor to explain the increase in demand for residential housing both for rent and ownership." The Bank of Spain had no doubt. "There is a strong positive correlation between population growth and the rise in purchase and rental prices.

"In fact, the BdE didn't allow itself optimism with this problem. "The magnitude of the diagnosed problem makes it difficult to envision that isolated short-term actions can have enough scope to significantly reduce the current difficulties in accessing housing.".