2 weeks Ago By Sean Kelly
One of the most-told political stories of this term is how much Anthony Albanese’s campaign for the Indigenous Voice damaged him. If in a few weeks Albanese loses the election, this story – about a prime minister whose priorities were all wrong – will be set in stone. And Dutton’s victory will, at the same time, cement the other story that took hold then: that Dutton is a brutally effective campaigner.
But this raises an intriguing question. If Albanese wins, will our story about that campaign and its lingering political impact shift? Here’s another version of the story. Referendums without bipartisan support do not succeed.
Once Dutton had decided to oppose, the result was inevitable: nothing he did after that had an effect. Credit: Artwork: Joe Benke Through 2023 and 2024, inflation dragged down the popularity of incumbents everywhere. If anything, against a hapless opponent amid an inflation crisis, the Coalition should have pulled dramatically ahead: it never did.
If Dutton loses this election, the moment he decided the referendum meant more than it did may be remembered as decisive. Recall two of his biggest splashes in that campaign: the attack on the Australian Electoral Commission and a “rigged” process, and his quickly rescinded proposal to hold a referendum on Indigenous recognition. The similarities with his current campaign are striking: policies leaning Trumpward (talk of school students being “ indoctrinated ”, potential cuts to the education department and the ABC , and others lacking detail, soon withdrawn (using defence in negotiations over tariffs , more referendums ).
A campaign built mostly on opposing rather than proposing. Did Dutton simply assume the tactics could be repeated? Right now, for the rest of us, there is a more important echo of the Voice campaign. Australians will sometimes present themselves as wanting change – but then, when a specific change is offered, they reject it.
Action on Indigenous affairs? Yes, please. The Voice? No, thanks. Climate change? Please act.
A carbon price? No! In the past decade, the pattern became clear: Australians want things fixed but consistently reject reforms to fix things. Loading This isn’t always unreasonable: of course it’s acceptable to reject particular proposals. But the contradiction is worth noting because this exact situation is now playing out on a global scale.
For some time, voters across the world have been saying they want dramatic change. Before the US election, 53 per cent of Americans preferred the idea of a “shock to the system” over “basic stability”. Similar desires can be read into the move away from major parties across the world.
In Donald Trump, we are witnessing dramatic change. Meanwhile, polling suggests many voters in other countries, including Australia, want dramatic change – just not this one. That’s being felt now in the “Trump bump” that incumbents – including Anthony Albanese – seem to be getting.
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