3 days Ago By Raymond Liu
A massive summer of cricket lies ahead of us beginning on Friday in Perth. After back-to-back summers against lower ranked Test nations, there are high hopes for this series, which also marks the first instalment of a five-Test series (as opposed to the traditional four) between the two sides. India are a formidable opposition, and have won their last four series against Australia, including the last two series in our backyard, in 2018/19 and 2020/21.
With less than seven months efore the World Test Championship, every win is critical for both sides. More Cricket Let’s dive into what to expect. Which team is in better form over the year? India has played 10 Tests in 2024, including five in the past two months.
After winning six of their first seven, they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 at home against New Zealand, marking the first time India have been whitewashed in a three-Test series at home. Australia on the other hand, have only played five Tests in 2024, with their last Test against New Zealand back in March. The only loss came against the West Indies in January 2024, with an inspired bowling effort from Shamar Joseph.
The old saying goes, “you’re only as good as your last result”, and there’s no doubt that India had major issues with their batting against New Zealand, with lowly scores of 156, 121 and 46 in three of their past six innings. The batting line-up is unsettled, injury doubts hang over key players and their superstar players, namely Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, are far from their best. Rohit Sharma.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images) Australia have not played a Test for a while but faced a tough New Zealand opposition across the ditch in their last series, where they grinded out some hard-fought wins in testing conditions. With the batting lineup and order seemingly settled (for now), and 10 of the starting 11 who played in the last Test against New Zealand expected to face India in Perth, the majority would agree that Australia are relatively settled, and in better nick heading into the summer. The main caveat, however, is that none of Australia’s batsman have really displayed sparkling form in the Sheffield Shield, which will cast some doubt on whether the Aussies are indeed ready to face one of the best bowling attacks in the world.
How have the two teams matched up in the past at each venue? 1st Test @ Optus Stadium, Perth (November 22 – 26) Australia’s last 6 @ Perth (in order from most recent to least recent): WWWWW(*)L(*) Australia’s last 3 vs India @ Perth: 2018/19: W, 2011/12: W(*), 2007/08: L(*) (*) Played at the WACA Australia have not lost here in their four Tests at Optus Stadium and accounted for India in 2018. A new drop-in pitch will be used for the first Test, and seemingly, this deck is expected to have plenty of bounce and carry, living up to the traditional WACA ground where Test cricket used to be played. With the start of the Test tipped to be cooler than typical Perth conditions at this time of the year, and both batting line-ups exhibiting fragility, the bowlers will be licking their lips.
2nd Test @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (December 6 – 10) (Day/Night) Australia’s last 6 @ Adelaide: WWWWWL Australia’s last 3 vs India @ Adelaide: 2020/21: W, 2018/19: L, 2014/15: W India do not have good memories of the Adelaide Oval, famously being bundled out for 36 in their last innings. Australia’s strong record in Day/Night Tests (won 12 of 13 and 6 of 6 at the Adelaide Oval), will give them great confidence in continuing their strong streak. Adelaide Oval used to be referred to as a “batsman’s paradise”, but there is always something for the bowlers now in Adelaide, especially since the Day/Night format was introduced in 2015.
Virat Kohli of India.(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images) 3rd Test @ The GABBA, Brisbane (December 14 – 18) Australia’s last 6 @ Brisbane: LWWLWW Australia’s last 3 vs India @ Brisbane: 2020/21: L, 2014/15: W, 2003/04: D Contrary to Adelaide, the GABBA is where one of India’s best victories in Australia took place in the last series. After being unbeaten at the GABBA for almost three decades, Australia have wobbled at the GABBA of late, with an unexpected loss against the West Indies.
With the Brisbane weather and bowler-friendly conditions in recent years, expect this pitch to be like what we will see in Perth. 4th Test @ MCG, Melbourne (December 26 – 30) Australia’s last 6 @ Melbourne: WWWLWL Australia’s last 3 vs India @ Melbourne: 2020/21: L, 2018/19: L, 2014/15: D Melbourne has been a happy hunting ground for the Indians of late, winning the last two Tests comfortably. The pitch has historically been known to be quite dull, and not conducive to a great spectacle, providing little assistance to the bowlers.
A “poor” pitch rating in the 2017 Ashes served as a wake-up call, but if recent tests are the best indicator to go by, the test which will bring the biggest crowd of all, will provide a thrilling contest between bat and ball. 5th Test @ SCG, Sydney (December 26 – 30) Australia’s last 6 @ Sydney: WWDDWD Australia’s last 3 vs India @ Sydney: 2020/21: D, 2018/19: D, 2014/15: D Sydney has also been a good ground for India of late, despite not winning either of the last three encounters. Rain has historically played spoilsport in Sydney and explains why there has been five draws in the past 10 Tests at the SCG.
The SCG has historically been known to take turn as the test progresses, so if the pitch lives up to this nature, it may suit India more given the grounds typically served up at home. Win the toss and..
.? Australian pitches have historically largely favoured batsman. The traditional philosophy would be to win the toss, have a bat, and post a big score as most grounds allowed you to do that.
Between 2012/13 and 2020/21, there were 47 tests on home soil, with the toss-winning captain opting to bat first on 40 occasions (85%). In the past three summers, this has dropped, with captains opting to bat first only 60% of the time, showing a lower trend, and evidence that bowling first in Australia is not as feared as it once was. When analysing the rolling average runs per wicket over a four-test period, we have observed in the past three years that this statistic ranged mostly between 25 to 35 runs per wicket.
This is down from prior years where it would be less common for the runs per wicket statistic to fall below 30-40. This lower trend shows that batsmen are not getting everything their own way anymore, with wickets falling more regularly. This is also backed up by the fact that there have only been three draws in the last 31 tests on home soil, with all of these occurring in Sydney, where rain played a part in these tests.
Given the strength and depth of both side’s bowling attacks, and the questions that hang over the batting of both sides, it would not be a surprise to see the toss-winning captain electing to bowl first for most of the series. Series Prediction? India has the wood over Australia and making it three series in a row in our backyard would be a remarkable achievement. The odds are stacked against them (albeit, just like 2020/21), and Australia will be hungry to bounce back.
Surely it won’t happen again, will it? I am not expecting any draws (barring rain in Sydney), and not expecting lightning to strike thrice, so I am tipping Australia to win 4-1, and finally regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time since they last achieved the feat 10 years ago, in 2014/15..
