2 weeks Ago By Simply Wall St.
Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term ( ) shareholders, since the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 22%.
After losing 3.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance. While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational.
One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement. ASX saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 0.5% per year, over the last three years.
This reduction in EPS is slower than the 9% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This interactive report on ASX's is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend.
As it happens, ASX's TSR for the last 3 years was -18%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! ASX shareholders gained a total return of 13% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return.
On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 1.8% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around.
It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ASX better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that , you should know about.
.. If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this.
