2 days Ago By Nara Schoenberg
Tornado season arrived like clockwork this year, with high winds blowing through the south and southwest suburbs March 19, tearing the roof off a building, picking up a metal shed and throwing trees to the ground.But if the screaming sirens and looming threats to life and property are familiar, this year is different, experts say, with fewer National Weather Service employees on the job because of layoffs by President Donald Trump and less data about weather approaching from the Great Plains states.National Weather Service weather balloon releases — tracking temperature, pressure and wind speed — have been temporarily suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota, because of staff shortages and reduced at six other sites in the Midwest and Great Plains, according to agency memos.
That loss has created “a gaping hole” in our balloon data in Illinois, according to Victor Gensini, an associate professor in the department of Earth, atmosphere and environment at Northern Illinois University.Gensini was among the climate and weather scientists who told the Tribune they’re concerned about the effects on Illinois of recent National Weather Service staff cuts.“Is public safety at risk? Yes, it is,” said former National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini, referring to the staff cuts.
“(Can) I tell you exactly when the system is going to break? No, but the risks are definitely increasing.”The National Weather Service did not respond to requests for comment.The staff cuts come at a time when scientists say climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, including heavy rains, severe floods and long droughts.
Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which helps Americans recover from weather disasters, has been threatened with severe cuts.On Sunday, skies darkened and thunder boomed as severe weather moved into the Chicago region. A tornado watch was issued for 10 counties in northeastern Illinois and five counties in northern Indiana, and forecasts included the possibility of hail as big as pingpong balls and widespread wind gusts up to 70 mph.
No tornado sightings were reported, but according to Brett Borchardt of the National Weather Service in Chicago, “It’s a good day just to be weather aware.”On July 15 last year, the National Weather Service in Chicago issued 16 tornado warnings — the most it had sent out on a single day since 2004. The office found that 32 tornadoes, a one-day record, swept across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana as peak wind gusts reached more than 100 mph.
By that time of the year, Illinois had already experienced over 100 tornadoes, well above the state’s typical annual average of 50.Crews clear a fallen tree that hit a house and uprooted a sidewalk on July 16, 2024, on South Euclid Avenue in Oak Park after Monday night’s storms. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)People pass a fallen tree that uprooted a sidewalk on July 16, 2024, on South Elmwood Avenue in Oak Park.
(Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)Crews clear a fallen tree that hit a house on July 16, 2024, on South Elmwood Avenue in Oak Park after the previous night's storms. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)Josh Brislen clears fallen branches on July 16, 2024, from a part of Jackson Boulevard in Oak Park that was hit hard by the previousd night’s storms. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)People look over severe storm damage in back area of homes along Short Drive and South End Lane, July 16, 2024, showing a path of destruction caused by strong winds in Crestwood.
(Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)Crews from the village of Schiller Park clean up storm debris along Grace Street on July 16, 2024, following a storm in Schiller Park. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)Crews from the village of Schiller Park clean up storm debris along Grace Street on July 16, 2024, following a storm. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)A man looks at storm damage near North Hoyne Avenue and West Huron Street in West Town on July 16, 2024.
(Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)Fallen trees cover West Huron Street between North Hoyne Avenue and North Leavitt Street in West Town on July 16, 2024. (Eileen T.
Meslar/Chicago Tribune)A man carries tree branches across West Huron Street near North Leavitt Street in West Town on July 16, 2024. (Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)A fallen tree lies on a vehicle parked on West Huron Street near Oakley Boulevard in Chicago's West Town neighborhood on July 16, 2024.
(Eileen T. Meslar/Chicago Tribune)Charles Matthews looks at debris covering a car on West 68th Street in Chicago on July 16, 2024, after a storm. (Tess Crowley/Chicago Tribune)Debris covers a car on South Natoma Avenue in Chicago on July 16, 2024, after a storm.
(Tess Crowley/Chicago Tribune)Heinrich Zajkowski hauls fallen tree branches in Schiller Park on July 16, 2024, after a storm the previous night. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)Luke Oleszkiewicz of Servpro Disaster Recovery Team pulls away damaged shingles on July 16, 2024, after the top roof of a home was blown away by a severe winds during a storm in Crestwood. (Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)Theresa Janet looks at a neighbor’s vehicle covered by fallen tree limbs on 135th Court near Loomis Lane in Crestwood on July 16, 2024.
(Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)Show Caption1 of 16Crews clear a fallen tree that hit a house and uprooted a sidewalk on July 16, 2024, on South Euclid Avenue in Oak Park after Monday night’s storms. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)Expand“We saw (32 tornadoes in one day) across the Chicagoland area, including several that went into the city of Chicago itself and no fatalities — that’s not a coincidence,” said Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford. “That is because we’ve seen 100 years of consistent progress in our models, in our warning systems, in our observations.
”A century ago, when the Tri-State Tornado ripped through Illinois, 600 people died statewide, 234 in Murphysboro alone, he said.At the time, there were no early warnings; people knew a tornado was coming when they saw it.Today, in contrast, there’s an average of 15 to 20 minutes between a tornado warning and impact, Ford said, due primarily to research by the federal government, including the National Weather Service’s parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The investment in the National Weather Service and NOAA that we’ve seen over the last 100 years or so has been a huge reason why we’ve saved countless lives,” Ford said.New Lenox resident Kim Highfill was at home when high winds blasted through her neighborhood March 19.An apparent tornado picked up her neighbor’s metal garden shed, deposited it in her yard and sent parts of it flying toward her house.
“We were in the basement. You could hear a very loud storm. You could hear stuff bouncing off the side of the house,” she said.
A lifelong resident of Illinois, she had seen worse: the Oak Lawn tornado of 1967, which killed 33 people, and the Plainfield tornado of 1990, which petered out less than a mile from her home after taking out an apartment complex.Cindy Egan, left, and her niece Barb Fitzpatrick gather belongings on the second floor of their home on James Street in Plainfield on Aug. 29, 1990.
(Michael Fryer/Chicago Tribune)Highfill said she opposes cuts to the National Weather Service: “There are certain things that are of vital importance and they should not be bare-boned.”Among Gensini’s concerns about cutbacks: The National Weather Service hasn’t filled one of two radar technician positions in Illinois, and the remaining technician is “ping-ponging” between the Doppler radars in Romeoville and Lincoln, some 140 miles away.“If we have a situation when both radars fail, we might be without radar data, which is arguably the most important data that the National Weather Service collects, so we are hanging by a thread in some areas,” Gensini said.
As for the weather balloons, he said that predicting the behavior of convective storms — including tornadoes, hail and damaging winds — requires an understanding of how temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction change with height.“We can’t get that without our weather balloon data,” he said.The weather service still releases balloons in the path of weather approaching Illinois from the west, he acknowledged, but now there are fewer balloons.
“We know through basic research and studies that have been published in the past that removing balloon data has a negative impact,” Gensini said.A 2016 report found that when Russia cut its weather balloon releases in half to save money, there was a significant impact on forecast quality. Russia quickly brought back its canceled balloon launches.
Thousands of federal workers have been laid off since January as Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency, led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have worked to slash spending.“We’re cutting down the size of government. We have to,” Trump said during the first Cabinet meeting of his second term, according to The Associated Press.
“We’re bloated. We’re sloppy. We have a lot of people that aren’t doing their job.
”About 100 employees have been laid off at the National Weather Service, including one in Illinois, according to National Weather Service Employees Organization President JoAnn Becker.Those employees were recently reinstated but placed on paid administrative leave pending the outcome of litigation.Retired WGN-TV chief meteorologist Tom Skilling said “there’s every reason to believe” that more cuts are coming.
“My understanding right now from my inside sources is there have not been cuts to the local staff here at Romeoville (near Chicago), but they’re coming,” Skilling said. “They’re warning everyone that they’re starting the cutting process, and my understanding is they’re telling managers to come up with lists of people that they could chop.”There’s a real risk that staff cuts could reduce the quality of weather data in periods when we most need it, he said: when a tornado or a snowstorm is approaching, or a big cold wave or heat wave.
Ford, who leads the state’s drought monitoring program, said the National Weather Service plays a vital role in that work as well.With staff cuts, he said, slowly evolving hazards like drought could get less attention. That’s a potential problem because a severe drought can last a long time once it develops, with a major impact on agriculture, water resources and energy production.
“That’s something that, down the road, I do get concerned about,” Ford said.Skilling emphasized that the National Weather Service is popular and efficient. The agency estimates that each American spends about $4 a year for all of its services.
In Illinois, that includes forecasts warning about rising rivers, floods, blizzards, high winds, tornadoes, heat waves, extreme cold, rip currents and hail.Uccellini said the layoffs affected top-notch workers at an agency where 50 to 100 people apply for each job.“It’s very disconcerting because we are losing very good people that we spent maybe a year trying to hire.
And what it means for the future is just as disconcerting — and alarming almost — because will the best and brightest be applying for these jobs?” he said. “Will they want to do public service in the future?”Private companies do their own collection and dissemination of supplemental weather data, but National Weather Service data forms the foundation of virtually all weather forecasts and warnings in the United States.There are about 4,200 employees at the National Weather Service, collecting 6.
3 billion weather observations a day, Skilling said. The weather service releases about 1.5 million forecasts and 50,000 warnings each year.
“If they’re looking for bloat and overstaffing, the National Weather Service is not the place to be looking,” Skilling said. “The weather service is lean and mean and operating beautifully. My view is: Why try and fix it when it ain’t broken?”Chicago Tribune’s Adriana Pérez and Carolyn Stein contributed.
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