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Arsenal host West Ham at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday, knowing that a win could mount serious pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool. Three points here would cut the gap to the top to just five points ahead of the Reds’ visit to Manchester City on Sunday. On paper, it’s a cosy fixture for the Gunners as the visitors are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 1-0 home loss to Brentford.
Concerningly, new West Ham manager Graham Potter has lost four of his first six games and won just once. But remember: Mikel Arteta’s men have been badly hit by injuries, meaning they are nowhere near full strength. Advertisement Let’s look at the key betting angles, from potential outcomes and goalscorers to what a result for the hosts might mean for the title race.
Despite an injury crisis, odds heavily favour Arsenal With Arsenal now firmly re-established as one of the Premier League’s best clubs, you’re extremely unlikely to find a weekend in which they’re underdogs at home — and there’s little chance 16th-placed West Ham will push them into that territory. That said, the extent to which Arsenal are favoured (1/5) is a surprise. They will take to the pitch without Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli.
The thinness of their squad was evident last weekend when they had to wait until the 81st minute to find a way past a Leicester City team currently heading toward the drop. The Foxes made life difficult for Arteta’s men that day by defending deep and blocking the middle of the pitch. This forced talismanic midfielder Martin Ødegaard into some extremely difficult passes that didn’t quite come off.
With the help of some substitutes the deadlock was eventually broken, but it was such a grind. Potter will no doubt have seen how the game played out and considered how to replicate Leicester’s approach — the good news for him is that he has the personnel to do it. West Ham are a tall, physical side that can block up the middle and defend the box, then counter-attack with immense speed through Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus.
However, it’s important to recognise that to pull this off, they’d have to absorb a lot of pressure in defence and still find a way to beat a back line that has conceded just 22 goals in 25 league games. That’s probably why their price to win (9/1) is so big. If bettors fancy an upset but can’t quite believe West Ham can come away with the full three points, the draw sits at 7/2.
For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic’s sports betting section and have them added to your feed. Is Merino to score the winning bet here? The man who broke the deadlock in Leicester last weekend was Mikel Merino, whom Arsenal signed last summer from Real Sociedad to play central midfield. But now, as a result of season-ending injuries to Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, he has been pushed into emergency action as a No 9.
Advertisement The Spaniard scored a header to give the Gunners the lead, then six minutes later, finished off a brilliant counter-attacking move to seal the victory. A heartwarming post-match interview suggested he considered his cameo as a striker a bit of a one-off, but the 28-year-old was so incredibly effective in that role, he might be asked to continue it until the end of the campaign. Despite not being guaranteed to start, Merino’s anytime goalscorer price of 11/4 should interest bettors, as he’s the most likely route to goal Arsenal appear to have right now.
The midfielder’s ability to win physical duels in the penalty box and finish sharply makes him the obvious target for any crosses the team swings in. An Arsenal win could dramatically change title odds What once looked like a season lost to injury and refereeing controversy for the Gunners now suddenly offers renewed hope. At the beginning of the week Arsenal were way out at 4/1 to win the title, but following Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday, those odds were trimmed to 11/4.
A win against West Ham, coupled with more dropped points for their title foes away to Man City the following day, would see those odds shrink even further — and it’s worth remembering Arteta’s men would have a game in hand, too. Furthermore, there are clear signs of Liverpool’s form slowing down. They’ve won just once in four games in all competitions and don’t have the luxury of extreme squad depth, so rotating out-of-form players like Luis Díaz , or those who are perhaps beginning to tire, like Ryan Gravenberch, has proved difficult.
Liverpool’s odds of winning the title have moved from 1/5 to 3/10 in recent weeks, suggesting the bookmakers have noted the tide may be beginning to turn, too. (Photo of Mikel Merino: Getty Images / Shaun Botterill).
