4 days Ago
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s appointment of informal advisers to his country’s chairmanship of a Southeast Asian grouping has stirred debate and raised questions on how exactly it might work. Analysts have described Anwar’s move as unprecedented and possibly aimed at making headway in “almost intractable” regional issues such as the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea, as one observer put it. But it remains to be seen if he follows through with the plan, they said.
Anwar said on Monday (Dec 16) that former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra would be part of an “informal” team of experienced statesmen he will tap as Malaysia chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year. Making the announcement during an official visit to Malaysia by Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is Thaksin’s daughter, Anwar said the “informal set-up” would comprise “a team of members from ASEAN countries”. The team reportedly could include former Singapore foreign minister George Yeo and former Indonesia foreign minister Retno Marsudi.
Yeo, who has spoken and written extensively on China since leaving public office in 2011, had been a key advocate for ASEAN integration while Marsudi, who is now the United Nations’ special envoy on water, has considerable experience dealing with the Myanmar issue , not least during Indonesia’s chairmanship of the 10-member ASEAN in 2023. CNA has contacted both for comment. “UNUSUAL” MOVE AIMED AT BREAKTHROUGHS? No ASEAN chair “in recent memory” has appointed a team of informal advisers although it is quite common for ASEAN to appoint eminent persons or high-level task forces to focus on specific issues, said Sharon Seah, senior fellow and coordinator at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s ASEAN Studies Centre.
“In that sense, it is quite unusual for an ASEAN country chair to appoint its own informal group,” she said. “Perhaps PM Anwar feels that he would benefit from the experience of those who have been engaged with ASEAN in their ministerial capacities to advise and help to strategise issues relevant for Malaysia’s chairmanship.” Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told CNA it is unclear what implications Anwar’s move could have on ASEAN.
“Nobody really knows as this is unprecedented and it is not entirely clear why Malaysia decided to do this – but it is advisory in nature and it gives advice to the chair and not to ASEAN as a whole,” he noted. Even if the chair accepts the team’s advice, ASEAN’s consensus-based nature means no member state needs to be bound by it, he added. The retired diplomat personally feels Anwar’s move is “more performative than anything else”.
“Anwar has a record of making gestures that he does not necessarily follow through. So rather than speculate, I suggest we all just wait and see what happens if anything happens at all,” he added. Anwar’s move has already drawn some criticism in Malaysia, with a politician from the opposition Parti Islam Se-Malaysia questioning his pick of Thaksin – who was convicted in Thailand of corruption and abuse of power – and whether it was for the Malaysian premier’s personal gain.
Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan leapt to Anwar’s defence, noting that Thaksin, as someone who is accepted by the United States, close to China and influential in Thailand, could foster greater cooperation between ASEAN and global powers. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in the United States, called the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea – where several ASEAN members have overlapping claims with China – “big issues” that the regional bloc lacks capacity in tackling. “I think Anwar is trying to get around some of the bureaucracy and normal ASEAN efforts and make breakthroughs with the informal group,” he said.
“I think his aim is to build consensus and make ASEAN more powerful, but I'm not sure that is going to happen. Because the South China Sea and Myanmar are almost intractable issues, no matter what Anwar does.” China claims much of the South China Sea but ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam are also claimant states.
The ASEAN countries have, for years, challenged China’s territorial claims and tried negotiating a code of conduct to resolve disputes. Myanmar, meanwhile, has been in a state of unrest since February 2021 when its military seized control and ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking protests and leaving the junta struggling to hold on to its power. ASEAN has taken the rare step of excluding Myanmar’s junta leaders from official meetings and, in 2023, agreed to set up a “troika mechanism” comprising the immediate past, current and incoming chairs to tackle the crisis.
But efforts to implement a peace plan called the Five-Point Consensus adopted in 2021 – which includes facilitation of mediation by an ASEAN special envoy – have largely been ignored by the junta. “ Quiet diplomacy ” attempts by individual member states like Thailand and Indonesia seemed to have made little headway. WORKING BEHIND THE SCENES Analysts say Anwar - as leader of the ASEAN chair - has the prerogative to appoint personal advisers, but have mixed views on the signals it sends.
“PM Anwar most likely felt the need to get a few ASEAN old hands to advise him and (that it is) not necessarily a bad thing because of the challenging geopolitical environment that ASEAN is operating under,” said Seah. “I believe that this group would work behind the scenes and not participate in actual ministerial retreats or summit level meetings,” she added. Anwar’s move could be seen as recognising the need for collective wisdom that will lead to more effective solutions and better decision-making for the region, said Joanne Lin, senior fellow and co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Anwar’s consultative approach may also be aimed at securing broader buy-in and minimising opposition to Malaysia’s initiatives to achieve greater consensus within ASEAN,” she said. But Anwar’s reliance on informal advisory roles may signal a recognition of gaps in institutional expertise or readiness to navigate the complexities of an ASEAN chairmanship independently, said Jamil Ghani, a doctoral candidate at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies who has done research on Malaysian foreign policy. “While this pragmatic approach can provide valuable insights and enhance decision-making, ensuring transparency and inclusivity will be crucial for PM Anwar to maintain public confidence during his ASEAN chairmanship,” he told CNA.
RESPECT AND LONGSTANDING TIES Jamil, who was also a researcher at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies think tank, said Anwar’s relationship with Thaksin – who led Thailand from 2001 to 2006 – is “rooted in decades of respect and shared regional priorities”, noting their parallel political trajectories and efforts to address cross-border challenges. Anwar also has “longstanding ties” with former Singapore foreign minister Yeo, and their regular exchanges as well as aligned views on ASEAN’s future have fostered trust and mutual understanding, Jamil said. Yeo, who served 23 years in Singapore’s government, had been a driving force behind initiatives like the ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Charter, Lin noted.
The inclusion of Yeo and Thaksin could cut two ways, said Jamil. While it risks perceptions of an “old boys' club” and could potentially undermine broader regional confidence in the chairmanship, he said ASEAN has “historically operated through informal elite networks, where national leaders, often entrenched in power for extended periods, collaborate closely”. Among the trio, Indonesia’s former foreign minister Retno has the most up-to-date and recent experience on the Myanmar issue, having reportedly held over 300 meetings with Myanmar stakeholders during Indonesia’s chairmanship, noted Seah.
“One of the key issues that ASEAN has not been able to crack is an internal one – the Myanmar crisis which is threatening the grouping’s unity and thus challenging ASEAN’s centrality,” she said. “In that sense, having a group who can advise on how ASEAN can better respond to the Myanmar crisis may be helpful.” While Anwar’s move is a “maverick” one that could see seasoned hands providing “out-of-the-box” ideas and solutions to the Myanmar crisis, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Tang Siew Mun questioned if the advisory team would add another layer of bureaucracy and put additional distance between the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar and the Malaysian premier.
Malaysia has not announced who it will appoint as the special envoy to take over from Laotian diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun. “It is incumbent on Malaysia to ensure that the informal advisory team does not detract from the work of the special envoy of the ASEAN chair on Myanmar and the ASEAN troika,” said Tang, a senior fellow at the institute’s regional strategic and political studies programme. Additional reporting by Izzah Aquilah Norman.
