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As America's allies digested the news and scale of Donald Trump's election victory, four US B-52 strategic bombers over a week ago landed at Britain's RAF Fairford having flown the Atlantic and conducted joint training missions over Scandinavia with Finnish and Swedish jets. According to the top US Air Force officer in Europe, General James Hecker, their presence -- announced just before Americans voted -- was to send "a message of assurance to our friends while also deterring potential aggressive actions by strategic competitors". In reality, however, America's European and Asian partners have rarely been more nervous.
Mr Trump's first two major foreign policy appointments -- Republican Congressman Mike Waltz and Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State -- were seen offering a degree of reassurance as well as clear direction. Even before his appointment was announced, Mr Rubio was publicly describing a new 3% of gross domestic product target for defence spending as a "requirement" for Nato allies, something that would require tens of billions more commitment from most major US partners. More recently announced picks, however, represent much more of a wildcard -- particularly Fox News host and former US Army reservist Peter Hegseth as Secretary of Defence and former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as Director for National Intelligence.
Both appear to signal Mr Trump's intention to go to war against established military and bureaucratic power structures in what he and his supporters call the US "deep state", something multiple US partners were already nervous of. Those appointments will likely intensify a trend already visible pre-election and accelerating since: for US partners to conclude not just that they must do more to protect themselves, but that as part of that they should make more of their own decisions. Some around Mr Trump who favour a more isolationist foreign policy might welcome that, at least to begin with.
Others may swiftly get uncomfortable if they see the US losing influence. In the run-up to the US election, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's foreign affairs adviser, Takashi Kawakami, told online magazine the Daily Cyzo a Trump victory could open the door for Japan to "conduct its own foreign policy". "We can take back the initiative and become a truly independent country," he said, suggesting Mr Trump would be less interested in regional affairs and calling for Japan to reassert control of some airspace and bases currently used by the US military.
Japanese PM Ishiba himself has taken another approach, suggesting in September that a weaker US in Asia meant it was time to build a regional alliance along the lines of Nato, an idea rejected both by the US and many of his political allies, including those he now needs to form a coalition. But Japan is not the only country thinking the previously unthinkable. In nearby South Korea, newly appointed Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun -- recorded saying in 2020 that now South Korea should get an atomic bomb -- told his parliamentary confirmation hearing late last month that "all options" should remain open if the US nuclear umbrella proved to be insufficient.
US presidents have been pushing Europe to do more in its own defence ever since the 1950s. The next Trump administration, however, appears to want European partners even more outside their comfort zone, including sending troops to protect a post-ceasefire Ukraine in order to keep Russian deterred. Whether that will happen is another matter.
The day after the US election results, European leaders met in Budapest in a prearranged gathering intended to show continental unity. As they did so, Germany's coalition government finally unravelled, ushering in early elections now scheduled for February. Both Britain and France have heavily talked up their support for Ukraine, lobbying the Biden administration to remove restrictions on long-range missile strikes.
But neither Keir Starmer nor Emmanuel Macron, both politically embattled at home, appear to want responsibility for leading European troops within Ukraine itself. Instead, Poland seems the most likely candidate -- at least if Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky prove able to agree a truce. Just this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda said he had reached a tentative agreement to meet Mr Trump before the inauguration, while Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told Polish TV on Wednesday the coming decisions on Ukraine might shape Europe for a generation.
The same might also be said of next year's German election. The best outcome for European defence would likely be a solid victory for the right-of-centre Christian Democrats, whose leader Friedrich Merz has long criticised Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his lukewarm Ukraine support. But if the right-wing Alternative for Deutschland does well, they might yet block support for Kyiv.
Those within the Trump administration are likely divided over whether they would like to see that outcome. Ambassador to Berlin in Mr Trump's first term, Rich Grenell, once said part of his job was "empowering conservatives" in Europe, and although he avoided any direct expressions of support for AFD, his presence as an ongoing Trump adviser still unsettles some. Mr Trump and those around him view his own unpredictability as a diplomatic strength, one that may give potential foes pause for thought.
Shortly before the election, Mr Trump told the Wall Street Journal he did not believe Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would move against Taiwan if he was in the White House because Mr Xi "respects me and knows I'm [expletive] crazy". Still, Taiwan in particular has been nervous about what a new Trump administration might mean -- especially since reports that Mr Trump confidant Elon Musk had told Taiwanese suppliers to his firm SpaceX that they should move their manufacturing to non-Taiwanese locations to safeguard his supply chain. Since his election win, there have been reports the Taipei government is considering a massive arms purchase offer from the US that they hope will win administration favour.
Having announced a 7% increase in defence spending this year, Taiwan will next year reach a commitment of 2.45% of GDP going on military spending now. The island has been showcasing its own military preparations since the US vote, including showing conscripts firing anti-tank rockets for the first time as part of basic training.
Japan, which spent only 1.6% on defence this year, is likely also under pressure -- as is South Korea, whose spending has fallen back slightly from a high of 2.7% in 2022.
Under the Biden administration, US commanders have been pushing those two nations to overcome centuries of distrust to work more closely together. The day after the US vote last week, Japan's defence minister Gen Nakatani became the first top Japanese officer ever welcomed aboard a South Korean warship as it visited Tokyo for a visit arranged between the two nations without involving the United States. Based on the first Trump administration, America's allies expect a bumpy journey.
Expect them to turn more to each other to ride it out together. Reuters Peter Apps is a writer on international affairs, globalisation, conflict and other issues..
