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After Alberta's population boomed through the first half of 2024, its growth slowed during the third quarter of this year. But even while less people answered Alberta's call, the province's population is still growing more quickly than the rest of Canada. As of Oct.
1, Statistics Canada recorded Alberta's population to be 4,931,601. That's roughly 43,000 more, or a 0.9 per cent increase, from the 4,888,723 recorded three months earlier.
The pace of growth remains higher than the national rate, and tops any other province or territory. The total was also roughly 3.9 per cent more than on the same date one year earlier, and close to double the national population increase of 2.
3 per cent in the same span. What's still setting Alberta apart from other provinces, to see a population uptick, has been the level of interprovincial migration it's still seeing. "It's the interprovincial (migration) that's driving a wedge between Alberta's population growth and the rest of country.
So this is why our population is growing 3.9 per cent," ATB economist Mark Parsons said. Growth Spurt: A look at what Calgary's growth means for both new and long-term residents Calgary's unemployment rate is trending higher than Canada's — but it's not because of layoffs Last quarter, Alberta welcomed 10,810 more people to the province than it saw leave for other parts of the country, a far higher rate than any other part of Canada.
Calgary has felt the brunt of Alberta's population growth this year, but Parsons said ATB is seeing signs its growth will be more balanced across the province in 2025. And while Canada's reduced international immigration targets should lower the overall population growth of Alberta next year, Parsons said he still predicts Alberta's population to increase just under two per cent in 2025. The rate is a marked slowdown but still set to be higher than the rest of Canada.
Parsons also forecasted slower population growth should benefit Alberta's unemployment rate, with less people moving to Alberta who are seeking work. But Parsons said ATB is still forecasting a seven per cent unemployment rate in 2025. Migration from B.
C., Ontario Unlike past interprovincial population waves in Alberta that were driven by employment in the energy sector, it's Alberta's relative housing affordability that's been driving movement from other provinces in recent years, Parsons says. In particular, that number has been driven up by British Columbia and Ontario, the two provinces with the highest-priced housing markets.
Statistics Canada estimates 7,719 people moved to Alberta from Ontario in Q3 this year, while 7,693 moved from B.C. Each province accounted for roughly a third of the 22,732 who moved to Alberta from another province or territory.
Parsons noted there's still more room to grow from there, even if it's slowing down. "There's still quite a bit of runway, especially compared to places like Toronto and Vancouver," Parsons said. "Calgary has crept up higher, but you have places like Edmonton, which among major cities is one of the most affordable housing markets.
So there's still room to move on interprovincial migration, but it will depend on the state of the labour market. People can't just come for affordability, they need jobs to go to." As Alberta has felt a large wave of movement into its cities and towns, British Columbia saw more people leave than arrive in 2023 for the first in more than a decade.
The Business Council of British Columbia has responded by launching the "Stay with B.C." campaign, which the council president said was inspired by the successful 2022 "Alberta is Calling" campaign .
Housing starts increasing Parsons said he expects home construction to continue to boom because of how much catching up the industry needs to do to keep up with the population growth. Alberta is still drawing many first-time buyers from other parts of Canada. Calgary realtor Jordan Helwerda said the bulk of first-time buyers he's worked with this year came from other provinces where they're less optimistic about the housing market.
Among this group, he's noticed that fully remote workers are making up a large portion. "The fact that so many people are working remote now has also provided some flexibility for moving to different provinces and cities," Helwerda said. Even as Alberta's population rate slows, home building is still one industry that's worked extensively to respond to the province's boom.
Alberta recorded 42,954 housing starts from January to November this year, which the province notes is a 35 per cent increase from the same period in 2023. It also saw 9,903 apartment unit starts in the first half of this year, the highest in any half-year in Alberta's history..
