Higher care provider fees and stretched council budgets are leading to a “doom loop” for adult social care where there is less help available for those in need, a report has warned. The King’s Fund said its latest research suggests a “real risk that even more people who need care will have to go without” as providers hike fees to cover wage rises and national insurance, and local authorities cut the number of people they support amid financial strain. The charity’s analysis of data over almost a decade suggested fewer adults are getting long-term adult social care help from councils in England despite a rise in requests for help.
Its latest report said the number of people supported with long-term care by local authorities had decreased in the past eight years, from 873,000 in 2015/16 to 859,000 in 2023/24. There was a rise in people asking for social care help from local authorities, from 1.8 million new requests in 2015/16 to 2.
1 million in 2023/24. Fees paid by councils to independent care providers rose by a third in real terms for older people’s care homes and by 13% for working-age adults care homes. The rise for home care was almost a fifth (18%).
Multiple voices in the sector have repeatedly raised concerns about the consequences of costs from national insurance contributions (NICs) and wage increases. In October’s Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased the rate of employers’ NICs by 1.2 percentage points to 15% and slashed the threshold at which the tax starts being paid from £9,100 to £5,000 to raise £26 billion a year.
She also announced that the national living wage will increase by 6.7% for employees aged 21 or older – from £11.44 an hour to £12.
21 – from April. Providers – some of whom demonstrated outside Parliament last week – have called for an exemption from the NICs rise, warning that without it, they are “facing a struggle to survive this spring”. The King’s Fund said care worker pay had increased by 17% in real terms, due to the national minimum wage between 2015/16 and 2023/24, and noted provider fee increases which followed.
Report author Simon Bottery, senior fellow at the King’s Fund, said the minimum wage rise was “richly deserved by care workers but hasn’t been fully funded by government”. He said: “As a result, we have seen a ‘doom loop’ in which social care providers have sought large fee increases from local authorities, which in turn have had to cut the number of people they support to make ends meet. “Now, just as that situation was starting to improve, it runs the risk of worsening again because of the big increase in staffing costs stemming from the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions, which has hit social care particularly hard.
“Unless the Government makes sure local authorities have enough money, there is a real risk that even more people who need care will have to go without.” He said the adult social care sector is “under immense strain, with local authorities struggling to meet demand, providers worrying about staying in business, and many people in need of care forced to either pay for their own care, rely on family and friends or go without”. An independent commission into adult social care, led by Baroness Louise Casey, is due to begin in April.
A first phase is due to report in mid-2026, but the Government has said a second phase, making long-term recommendations, might not report until 2028. Mr Bottery echoed frustration expressed by the sector, saying “the timescale of the commission is disappointing”. But he described it as the “best available opportunity to bring about the vital reform that is needed” and said the “real challenge is to agree on solutions and for the Government to have the political will to implement them”.
The Government has previously said it “inherited significant challenges facing social care” and has taken immediate action “including a £3.7 billion funding boost, 15,000 new installations to help disabled people live safely and independently in their own homes, and a £2,300 increase to carers allowance”. It said the Casey commission will develop recommendations “for a National Care Service to provide high-quality care for everybody who needs it and help us deliver our commitment to rebuild the sector so that it is fit for the future”.
.
Sports
Adult social care facing ‘doom loop’ amid increased costs – report
Analysis of data over almost a decade suggested fewer adults are getting help from councils in England despite a rise in requests.