2 days Ago By [email protected] (Ruth Mosalski)
Reform UK have been celebrating being top of a new poll in Wales, or so they claim. Off the back of a successful Welsh conference where Nigel Farage said he would be Labour 's main threat at the Senedd election in May 2026, the party is heavily promoting a poll saying it is "leading" in Wales and is two percentage points ahead of Labour, which has been in power in Wales for the whole 25 years of devolution. The story was run by GB News and Guido Fawkes with Guido declaring in a story which now appears to have been removed "Reform set to be biggest party in Wales according to new poll".
Meanwhile GB News headlined its story "New shock poll puts Reform as BIGGEST party in Wales and at 21% nationwide in latest blow to Labour and Conservatives. It comes from polling by Opinium of 2,116 adults, quizzed between November 11 and 13 and was weighted to be nationally and politically representative. The pollsters asked: "If there were a general election tomorrow, for which party would you vote?" There were 1,836 weighted responses with the majority saying Labour (25%), second was the Tories (21%), Reform UK came third (17%) and the Lib Dems were fourth with 10%.
They break them down into country-specific figures and they show us that just 86 of that weighted sample were people in Wales, and of those 26% said Reform UK, and 24% said Labour. However, the question was about a general election, not a Senedd election, and a poll of just 86 people in Wales is tiny meaning it is not a reliable guide to public opinion. Most respected pollsters use 1,000 people for their Welsh polls.
The Opinium data set is designed to be representative at a GB-level rather than any specific nation or region. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here There have been two polls which show Reform UK is doing well in Wales. One, by Cardiff University academic Jac Larner.
This looked at the results of the General Election and assessed what it could mean in a Senedd election. His research finds the number of people saying they will vote differently in the Senedd election compared to the Westminster election has reached some of the highest figures ever recorded by the Welsh Election Study, which is an independent study of politics and elections in Wales. Dr Larner's research found no single party would be close to winning a majority of seats in the Senedd in 2026 so there would need to be some agreement between several parties.
Labour was at 25% while Reform was fourth, with 16%. You can see that here. A second was published by Reform UK itself.
The poll, funded by party support and co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign, Arron Banks, was of 2,006 adults over 18, living in Wales. The fieldwork was carried out between October 18 and November 4.
It was weighted by age, sex, local authority, 2024 General Election vote and 2016 EU Referendum vote. The polling, released by Reform, carried out by Survation, questions people about their constituency and regional voting intentions in the next Senedd election, however in 2026, the voting system is changing and people will not have different votes, but select six people for their regions - which are yet to be finalised. The percentages found in that poll suggested in a Senedd election there could be around 19 MSs elected for the party.
To have those numbers now, 18 months out from an election and from a position of having no leader here, no party structure and just a handful of elected councillors, it is something impressive. The party is now holding large conferences in Wales, you can read what that was like here..
