A Nuanced Approach

The geopolitical Great Game continues to loom ominously in the background as Balochistan reels under unrelenting terrorist attacks, severe political instability, and unwarranted chaos. The US-led West and China appear to have a massive clash of interests in the South-Central Asian Region (SCAR) in general and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Region (APR) in particular. Two current issues, apart from the ongoing rivalry for global supremacy and hegemony, portend to seriously aggravate the prevailing geostrategic environment.

One, the evolving global crisis in critical minerals—and especially China’s massive control over some of them—has brought the mineral wealth of these regions, and especially Pakistan-Balochistan, into much starker focus. Crucially, China has already made deep inroads into these mineral-rich regions while the US, quite surprisingly, abandoned its most critical central position in Afghanistan in 2021. It has apparently returned to reoccupy it through the re-acquisition of the Bagram Air Base near Kabul.



Two, the US’s compulsion to bring the Iranian nuclear imbroglio to a closure may have enhanced the strategic importance of the region even further. Islamiyat, physics, economics, biology papers leaked in several Sindh cities The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides enormous geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic advantages to China. Its southern end is anchored on the Mekran Coast in Balochistan.

This also positions it extremely well to move further into the Greater Middle East Region (GMER), Iran, the Arabian Peninsula, Africa and so on. Critically, it provides China with an alternative to the Malacca Straits—a vital maritime chokepoint which could potentially have adverse geostrategic and geoeconomic ramifications for it in case of hostilities. The US-led West seems intent to counter China’s ingress by delaying, disrupting and, if possible, destroying the CPEC; ostensibly the weakest link in the BRI, especially as it passes through Balochistan.

It has been subjected to unrelenting terrorist attacks from Afghanistan and Iran. Furthermore, the US-led West might also want to keep Pakistan from becoming an integral, irretrievable part of the Chinese camp! Four-day Thar jeep rally 2025 kicks off in Nagarparkar Is the unrelenting terrorist onslaught in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—literally the western half of Pakistan—intended to achieve these strategic objectives? Regardless of their professed ideological and/or nationalistic ideals and objectives, the Afghanistan-based terrorist groups continue to launch attacks against the BRI–CPEC projects, Chinese personnel and interests, Pakistanis and their armed forces, LEAs, infrastructure etc. Will they target mineral explorations in the province, too? Are they then mere pawns (and fellow victims as well) on this macabre geopolitical chessboard? Do they all have the same master of the game who pulls their strings at will? Two distinct, equally vital streams—terrorism and political—appear to be holding sway in Balochistan at the moment.

The scourge of terrorism is further compounded by the sub-streams of sectarianism and ethnicism. Both streams are contributing directly to the prevalent instability and chaos in the province. The BLA and its cohorts appear fixated on targeting the BRI–CPEC projects and Chinese personnel, non-Balochis—especially Punjabis—armed forces, LEAs, infrastructure projects etc.

It has slowly but gradually moved from insignificant terrorist activities to large-scale ones like the Jaffar Express incident which garnered international attention. This reflects an improved strategic reach, better planning and leadership, more effective command and control, even more lethal weapons, equipment and communications, unrestricted funding and, above all, focussed strategic direction to achieve specific effects at the geopolitical and geostrategic levels. Recent reports suggest that the TTP etc.

have now got the US-made Javelin anti-tank/anti-bunker missiles too, which will raise the levels of ferocity and viciousness in their attacks! Where do these apparently rag-tag terrorist groups get these strategic, operational and tactical competencies and proficiencies from? They cannot function at these constantly increasing levels without the close support of large-scale organisations providing them with the requisite leadership, organisational, administrative, management, financial, logistic, training, planning, strategic direction and execution capacities and capabilities. Hostile intelligence agencies are clearly at play here. Furthermore, there have been reports of contacts between the TTP and BLA.

This could have serious ramifications. In coordinated, two-pronged attacks, the BLA could target the BRI–CPEC and Pakistan’s armed forces, while the TTP (along with sectarian organisations) could target non-Balochis—especially Punjabis, Shias/Hazaras etc. Existential threats could emerge if similar terrorist attacks were to be simultaneously conducted in KP and elsewhere in Pakistan! (Onslaught on Balochistan, by this scribe, The Nation, 07 & 08 September 2024).

Italian Consul General calls on Sindh Governor On the political front, Balochistan seems to be undergoing a paradigm shift. The indirect approach to the people through the Sardars is now outdated and redundant. A direct, fresh approach to the people is warranted.

A younger, newer political entity—the educated middle class—has now emerged and taken centre stage in the province’s politics. A new political reality has arisen which is now confidently defining the political spectrum, its parameters, its imperatives, and laying down the political agenda for the state to address. It must be engaged, and its issues, ambitions, grievances, apprehensions etc.

be dealt with promptly and sympathetically. It must be readily given the political space and recognition that it deserves. They must be listened to more than spoken to.

The Nawabs and Sardars, though still relevant, now appear to be receding into political and social wilderness. They now feel compelled to make common cause with the emerging political forces in Balochistan. The current sit-in in District Mastung is a case in point.

A defining, critical paradigm shift in the province’s politics has occurred, perhaps irrevocably. It must be recognised and accepted. The state must promptly make the essential, prudent, corresponding adjustments in its approach to the province and its politics.

Sindh Apex Committee vows to purge province of terrorist elements Terrorist attacks, the changing political scenario, and potential mineral exploration in the province all demand that the state adjust and adopt a more nuanced approach towards Balochistan and its people! Imran Malik The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.

com and tweets @K846Im. Tags: a nuanced approach.