1 week Ago By By Deveryn Ross
Earlier this week, I asked a number of local leaders if the federal election is over, if the outcome is “locked in.” Many of them responded that a Liberal victory — likely a Liberal majority government — appears inevitable at this point unless something extraordinary happens before election day. Read this article for free: Already have an account? As we navigate through unprecedented times, our journalists are working harder than ever to bring you the latest local updates to keep you safe and informed.
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99 a X percent off the regular rate. Earlier this week, I asked a number of local leaders if the federal election is over, if the outcome is “locked in.” Many of them responded that a Liberal victory — likely a Liberal majority government — appears inevitable at this point unless something extraordinary happens before election day.
Read unlimited articles for free today: Already have an account? Opinion Earlier this week, I asked a number of local leaders if the federal election is over, if the outcome is “locked in.” Many of them responded that a Liberal victory — likely a Liberal majority government — appears inevitable at this point unless something extraordinary happens before election day. There is a lot of polling data in support of that conclusion.
The results of every public opinion poll released this month have shown the Liberals to be leading the Conservatives by an average of seven points. The one exception is a poll conducted by Abacus Data, the results of which were released on April 2. That poll found that the Liberals and Tories were tied at 39 per cent.
Four days later, Abacus released the results of a newer poll, which showed the Liberals having a 42-36 lead. Things are looking grim for the Conservatives and, as often happens on losing teams, there is a lot of finger-pointing and second-guessing happening in the Tory tent. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre greets a supporter during an Axe The Tax rally in Winnipeg last summer.
Deveryn Ross writes that Poilievre and his Tory team are headed to an electoral defeat on April 28 because of the many mistakes they have made. (John Woods/Winnipeg Free Press files) On Thursday, Conservative campaign strategist Kory Teneycke — who was a senior staffer in the Harper government and recently ran Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s successful re-election campaign — took aim at the tactical decisions made by the people running the Conservative campaign. “Blowing a 25-point lead and being like 10 points down is campaign malpractice at the highest level,” he said.
“This campaign is going to be studied for decades as the biggest f—ing disaster in terms of having lost a massive lead.” He pointed out that the Conservative campaign team failed to respond to the reality “way back in December” that U.S.
President Donald Trump was becoming a key concern among voters. Beyond that, he says the Tory campaign has used rhetoric that too closely resembles the language used by Trump. Teneycke is correct in his analysis, but the mistakes that have contributed to the Tories’ current plight also includes the ousting of previous leader Erin O’Toole in 2022, the election of current Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — not Jean Charest — as party leader that same year, the apparent failure of Poilievre and his team to craft a strategy in anticipation of the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the election of Mark Carney as Liberal Party leader and, most importantly, their failure to anticipate, let alone plan for, the impact that Trump’s election would have on the Canadian economy and the priorities of Canadian voters.
How can a party with so many experienced tacticians, so much money to hire staff and conduct polling, and so much time to plan in advance for a range of contingencies be caught so flat-footed on so many issues? After all the incendiary things Trump said about Canada during his presidential campaign, how could the Poilievre Tories not have anticipated the impact that all of those crazy musings would have on Canadian voters? After many months of polls that indicated a large portion of Canadians had a problem with Poilievre’s caustic behaviour and rhetoric, why weren’t changes made to address the issue? How could they not have seen that his negative approval numbers were a festering problem that needed to be fixed? Who in the party thought pandering to the far-right edge of the political spectrum was wiser than having policies aimed at centrist voters? After all the Tory taunts regarding the “Liberal-NDP” coalition, why are they surprised that NDP voters are effectively formalizing that coalition? Is it possible that Team Poilievre was so convinced they were headed for a landslide win in the election that they didn’t see the need to address the problems that were likely obvious to them? Did they even regard them as problems? Isn’t that called “hubris,” and isn’t that a dangerous thing in politics, even at the best of times? The reality is that, barring some Earth-shaking development that alters the course of the election, Poilievre and his Tory team are headed to defeat on April 28 because of the many mistakes they have made. And the equal reality is that the Conservative Party would be cruising to a huge victory if either O’Toole or Charest — mature adults who don’t drink the Trump Kool-Aid and don’t believe the ability to insult people in both official languages is a virtue — was leading the party. Teneycke is also right when he says that political experts will study the decisions and non-decisions made by the Conservative campaign for decades to come.
They have turned a 25-point lead into a seven-point deficit and, while all that was happening, defiantly refused to change course. Instead, they are challenging the accuracy of all the polls that show them trailing — implicitly alleging that more than a dozen national polling organizations are in cahoots to embarrass and undermine the Tory campaign. That’s ridiculous.
Poor hockey players blame their sticks, while poor politicians blame the polls. This election is on track to be the largest self-defeat in Canadian political history, by a party that has already lost three elections in a row. The Poilievre Conservatives have somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
To suggest it is the result of political malpractice is an understatement. Advertisement Advertisement.
