2 weeks Ago By Brad Gagnon
It's been a hell of a fortnight, huh? The numbers sure indicate that. With exactly 32 games in the books, let's summarize the state of the 2024 NFL season thus far as best we can with nine particularly shocking statistics. Points scored by the New Orleans Saints, the second-most at the two-week mark in modern NFL history (behind only the 2009 Saints, at 93) And yes, that '09 team won the Super Bowl.
Sure, the Saints got to tee off on the horrendous Panthers in Week 1, but 47-10 is still a statement and they backed it up by crushing a Super Bowl contender in Dallas on Sunday. It's still early and there are some obvious potential concerns with that offensive line, but it's also entirely possible that Klint Kubiak is the answer for the offense and that Derek Carr can pull a Rich Gannon in reverse after Gannon became a star late in his career with the Raiders. Carr's 142.
2 passer rating isn't sustainable, but it's not as though he doesn't have talent, and he certainly has proven weapons as well as strong defensive support. A lot of folks were ready to write off this team (including yours truly), but the veteran Saints are far from dead thanks in part to a reshaped and intriguing offense. Win-loss record thus far for teams quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence The Ravens and Bengals are experienced enough not to panic, right? Cincinnati has been here before and Joe Burrow and Co.
fought hard in Kansas City, and the Ravens are the Ravens with their two-time MVP quarterback. Still, nobody expected them to be a combined 0-4. Now Baltimore has to go to Dallas in Week 3.
Yikes. Stafford has been surrounded by Murphy's Law in Los Angeles, and the Rams are looking at a potential season down the drain with the 49ers on the Week 3 slate and injuries crushing the roster. Lawrence and the Jags have fallen short twice against decent opponents.
Nothing embarrassing, but not good considering that they've now lost seven of their last eight games overall and are in Buffalo and Houston the next two weeks. All these teams, led by high-profile quarterbacks, hang by threads in mid-September. Win-loss record thus far for teams quarterbacked by Carr, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Justin Fields Carr is undoubtedly the league MVP at the two-week mark, while Mayfield's resurgence continues (more on him later), Darnold is playing well enough to make you wonder if the Vikings will have a tough decision next offseason, and Fields has at the very least been an asset more than a liability for a Steelers team that truly is always competitive.
Folks (and teams) have given up on Mayfield, Darnold and Fields on various occasions, but all three are former premium first-round draft picks in their 20s. At the very least, they may give pause to the Panthers, Bears and Jaguars as they watch their premium first-round pick 20-something-year-old quarterbacks struggle. Speaking of which.
.. Three qualified quarterbacks have bad throw rates above this mark: Bryce Young (28.
3%), Caleb Williams (27.9%) and Trevor Lawrence (27.1%) That's right, the three most recent No.
1 overall picks at that position. Pro Football Reference defines bad throws as those "that weren't catchable with normal effort," and these young dudes have been tossing a lot of them thus far. At least Young is only 23 while Williams is just two starts into his career.
There's still hope for all three, but it's a gotta be quite discouraging for the 0-2 Jags that the soon-to-be 25-year-old Lawrence has been this sloppy soon after signing a five-year, $275 million contract. Yards per play this season for the Chicago Bears, which ranks dead-last in the NFL (half a yard below 31st-ranked Carolina) Williams—one of the most hyped top picks this century—is averaging just 1.3 completed air yards per attempt, which is by far the worst rate in the among qualifiers early on.
This Bears team was supposed to be on the rise with Williams, fellow top-10 rookie Rome Odunze and plenty of added support this season, but Williams has hardly showed up and Odunze has caught just three of the nine passes thrown his way. At the very least, they face a lot of pressure to clean it up against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. The Detroit Lions' success rate in the red zone, which makes them one of just six teams below 30 percent in that metric Yeah, the Bears aren't the only hyped NFC North squad to disappoint thus far.
Despite all of that offensive talent, the Lions just aren't sustaining drives and executing when it matters, which is why they're lucky they're not 0-2 ahead of a tough road matchup with the exciting Cardinals. Fresh off landing a big new contract, veteran quarterback Jared Goff has just one touchdown pass to three interceptions and is one of just eight qualified passers with a sub-70 passer rating. The Lions might not have to panic yet, especially considering early-season stumbles from fellow contenders San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Green Bay, but this is a franchise with a snake-bitten nature, so it's easy to wonder if they're about to deliver a dud of a season right when the expectations have been turned up.
Dropped passes by Deshaun Watson's receivers in Cleveland, which is most in the league by a huge margin (Matthew Stafford is second with six) I'm not trying to let Watson entirely off the hook for another rough start, but it has to be noted that his receivers have dropped 13 percent of the passes he's thrown. That's just silly, and it means even more when you consider that he's also been pressured on a league-high 40.4 percent of his dropbacks.
He also showed some resilience in Sunday's road victory over the Jaguars, even if veteran receiver Amari Cooper produced just 11 yards on eight targets. In fact, Cooper has caught just five of the 17 passes thrown his way for 27 total yards in two games. He already has four drops, which is more than 26 teams.
Oh, Cleveland...
Baker Mayfield's near-perfect passer rating on deep passes , which is tops in the NFC Meanwhile, the quarterback the Browns let get away continues to shine in Tampa. Mayfield is 7-of-10 with three touchdown passes and no interceptions on passes traveling 15-plus yards down the field, which is a big reason he's the league's second-highest-rated passer for the 2-0 Buccaneers. Meanwhile, on the other end of that spectrum is the now-incredibly-rich Dak Prescott, who has nearly as many interceptions (2) as completions (3) on deep attempts, giving him a deep passer rating (32.
8) that only beats those of Bo Nix and Bryce Young. Strange times. Jalen Hurts' passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games , which ranks ahead of only Will Levis and Anthony Richardson among quarterbacks with more than two attempts under those circumstances Hurts and the Eagles continue to lack the killer instinct that got them to the Super Bowl two years ago.
It's been gone ever since, and they merely survived in the first half of 2023 before it all caught up with them down the stretch. The trend continues here, and Hurts struggling when it matters most (his 25.0 third-down passer rating ranks ahead of only Young's) doesn't bode well for the Eagles in 2024.
Within that conference, we can juxtapose that with Geno Smith, who has less support in Seattle but has posted a 124.2 rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games and has completed 14 of 20 attempts on third down. The NFL is in a statistical Upside Down.
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